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Long Term plans for hurricane model diagnostic support

Stream 1 of HFIP will focus on establishing a tri-agency core group to enhance hurricane model diagnostics. The meeting will analyze model deficiencies and improve physics, dynamics, and initialization. Hosted by DTC, the objectives include systematic model comparisons, identifying issues from large to mesoscale features, and developing diagnostic tools. The "Core" Group will consist of experts allocating 75% effort to diagnostics. DTC will provide infrastructure support, computational tools, and training. Identified deficiencies in observations and microphysics will be addressed by collaborating with agencies like NCAR, JPL, NOAA, and NASA. Key action items involve leadership, personnel, agency support, coordination, and timeline establishment.

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Long Term plans for hurricane model diagnostic support

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  1. Long Term plans for hurricane model diagnostic support HFIP Stream 1 Regional Hurricane Model Diagnostics Planning Meeting, 11/08/2010

  2. Advanced Diagnostics Framework Establish a tri-agency core group for hurricane model diagnostics EMC/NCEP (Operational HWRF) NRL/Navy (COAMPS-TC) MMM/NCAR (AHW) Complement the HFIP Diagnostics efforts led by Mark DeMaria Make use of preliminary diagnostic products generated by HFIP Diagnostics team to identify specific model behavior Provide more in-depth analysis of important model deficiencies and methods to improve model physics/dynamics/initialization Hosted by DTC Facilitation and coordination of activities Training and education on hurricane model diagnostics Develop advanced diagnostics tools 2

  3. Objectives and Goals Systematic comparison of model to observations and model inter-comparison studies will be carried out for both initial state/analyses and forecasts Identifying and analyzing various issues ranging from large-scale (synoptic scale) circulation features to mesoscale (vortex scale) features. Note: deficiency in observations. Identify various tools (e.g., graphics, model data sets, hurricane analysis/observational datasets, and methodology for various diagnostic measures) required to undertake this project. Identify areas of model deficiencies in different environments, and make recommendations for possible areas of model improvement. (v. important task) 3

  4. Diagnostics “Core” Group Consist of tropical/hurricane scientists with demonstrated expertise Can devote ~75% to diagnostics activity Can assist HWRF model developers ie: implications of new flux scheme Can accommodate operational implementation schedules 4

  5. Role of DTC Provide an overarching infrastructure in support of the advanced hurricane model diagnostics effort. Facilitate coordination between the scientists, the modeling groups and the ADD team lead as necessary. Provide a computational infrastructure on the HFIP computer at Boulder to supplement needed model experiments. Take the responsibility in providing training to the academic researchers and by experts in the field through periodic tutorials and special workshops Develop a “diagnostics toolbox” as a common framework for model developers (simliliar to the MET toolbox) 5

  6. Deficiency in Obs – vortex scale Obs that describe details of vortex evolution (3-D structure) in different environments (thermodynamic/kinematic) Particularly in development stages < CAT1 What is hurricane scale circulation? Do we have comprehensive data sets that describe the intensity change process?? Microphysics – missing data above melting level, e.g. hydrometeor fields – nucleation is not well understood 6

  7. (continued)Hurricane/TC OBS deficiency Hurricane /TC Observations Repository? NCAR, JPL, NOAA, NASA? Insitu data, satellite, atmosphere/ocean 7

  8. Action items: Leadership: Personnel: Agencies: HFIP support: Coordination: Time line

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