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Session 2: Workshop: Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead

This workshop outlines a comprehensive plan for interagency collaboration in tropical cyclone research, focusing on improving forecasting, data analysis, and operational capabilities. The plan emphasizes collaboration, resource identification, and gap analysis to enhance tropical cyclone warning systems. Key areas include intensity, structure, track, sea state, storm surge, and precipitation. Recommendations target research and development, coordination, transition, and increased funding, highlighting the need for human and computer resource enhancements.

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Session 2: Workshop: Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead

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  1. Session 2: Workshop: Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead Moderator: Dr. Paul Try, Senior VP, STC Rapporteurs: Ms. Mary Cairns (OFCM) Mr. Floyd Hauth (OFCM/STC) Panelists: Mr. Mark Welshinger, OFCM Dr. Frank Marks, HRD Dr. Ramesh Kakar, NASA Dr. Naomi Surgi, NCEP Dr. Richard Hodur, NRL-Monterey Dr. Isaac Ginis, University of Rhode Island

  2. Strategic Research Plan Overview • Interagency tropical cyclone plan that encompasses all applicable Federal agencies • Grass-roots-up approach to meet the needs of the three operational tropical cyclone forecast and warning centers • TPC/NHC, CPHC, and JTWC • Needs characterized by seven tropical cyclone-related, day-to-day operational forecast and warning categories • Intensity • Structure • Track • Sea state • Strategy / recommendations focus on R&D, enhanced coordination / collaboration, transition of research to operations, and increased funding • Storm surge • Precipitation • Observations

  3. Panel: Related Comments -- R2O Needs Greater Emphasis (Sensor/DA/Modeling/Outreach) Sensors: -- New Satellite and Aircraft capabilities Improving the System -- Continuing support for outyear new technologies (e.g., GEO MW array tech.) Modeling: Good Systematic/Well Planned Model Upgrades -- Moving to ESMF -- Need for Community standards (grids, etc.,) for > interoperability -- Ocean/Wave coupling coming soon -- Research Results Not Fully Realized/Optimized -- Major Improvements in Capability on Horizon!!!BUT ”IFF” (if and only if) Effective Research (incl:data analysis) and Planned R2O Must have greater Human and Computer Capacity Resources (i.e., Supplements in both research (B/A) and R2O required)

  4. Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones The Way Ahead • Summary: Plan’s Primary Features: • -- Strategic • -- Comprehensive • -- Collaborative • (Multi-agency Consensus) • -- Identifies Resources Required • -- Identifies Gaps 1st Step: Necessary comprehensive basis to build focused implementation on!

  5. Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones The Way Ahead Next Step (Actions): -- OFCM Multiagency Coordinated Effort (Leverage agency expertise, funding, mission needs, etc.,) -- 10 year TC Research Implementation Plan (Brief: Focused, Annual Review/Update, Timelines, Milestones, etc.,) -- NWP Development Improvement Plan (w/>R2O; > Academia; >resources) -- Strategic TC Recon Improvement Plan (incl: Manned, unmanned, satellite + Observing Strategies) -- OFCM Continue Review Hurricane Warning System -- Increase Focus on Deficiency in NWP Professionals

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