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Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead Part I

Detailed overview of the collaborative efforts to improve tropical cyclone forecasting, with a focus on research priorities, funding estimates, and strategic planning. Includes operational needs analysis and recommendations for enhanced coordination.

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Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead Part I

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  1. Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead Part I Mr. Mark Welshinger Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology March 6, 2007

  2. Overview • Background • Plan Overview • Structure of the R&D Plan

  3. Background • Replaces previous OFCM-sponsored plan • National Plan for Tropical Cyclone Research (FCM-P25-1997) • Impetus for this plan • Principal action item, agreed upon by the participants in the 58th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (IHC) (March 2004) • Meeting of Interdepartmental Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (ICMSSR) (November 2004) • Strongly supported action (action item 2004-2.7) • Meeting of the Federal Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (FCMSSR) (December 2004) • The senior interagency policy decision body advising OFCM, the IHC, and ICMSSR • Actions discussed and supported • Federal Coordinator formed Joint Action Group for Tropical Cyclone Research (JAG/TCR) (February 2005)

  4. Background JAG/TCR

  5. Background JAG/TCR

  6. Plan Overview • Interagency tropical cyclone plan that encompasses all applicable Federal agencies • Grass-roots-up approach to meet the needs of the three operational tropical cyclone forecast and warning centers • TPC/NHC, CPHC, and JTWC • Needs characterized by seven tropical cyclone-related, day-to-day operational forecast and warning categories • Intensity • Structure • Track • Sea state • Strategy / recommendations focus on R&D, enhanced coordination / collaboration, transition of research to operations, and increased funding • Storm surge • Precipitation • Observations

  7. Structure of the R&D Plan • Chapter 1 • Makes case for additional improvements • Introduces: • Three operational tropical cyclone forecast and warning centers: TPC/NHC, CPHC, JTWC • R&D community • Chapter 2 • Provides more in-depth review of tropical cyclone community • Reviews major previous work from which to build on Tropical Cyclone Community of Practice

  8. Structure of the R&D Plan • Chapter 3 • Examines current capability and limitations of Nation’s tropical cyclone forecast and warning system • End-to-end review of “system” • Includes data collection, data assimilation and NWP modeling, forecasting and warning, transition of research to operations, end user education, training, and outreach) • Chapter 4 • Summarizes the operational needs of the three operational tropical cyclone forecast and warning centers: TPC/NHC, CPHC, JTWC • Table 4-1 • Presents planned capabilities to meet the operational needs • End-to-end review

  9. Structure of the R&D Plan • Chapter 5 • Presents research priorities to aid in meeting the needs of the operational tropical cyclone forecast and warning centers • Chapter 6 • Key findings • Recommendations • Estimated increased funding associated with recommendations

  10. Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead Part II Mr. Mark Welshinger Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology March 6, 2007

  11. Overview • Interagency Working Group • Estimated Funding to Address Gaps and Priorities • Summary

  12. Key Findings & Recommendations • OFCM-sponsored interagency working group • Develop 10-year, multi-agency tropical cyclone research implementation plan • Outlines specific strategies to address research priorities • Updated annually • Strategic plan for improved tropical cyclone reconnaissance and surveillance systems (manned, unmanned, space-based, etc.) • Develop a plan to support the tropical cyclone NWP program. The plan should: • Include procedures to enhance the flow of relevant research focused on improvements to the operational NWP systems • Improve the conduit by which the academic community could be involved (e.g., through JHT, DTC)

  13. Estimated Additional Funding ($ Millions) Fiscal Year

  14. Summary • Interagency plan: • Thoroughly reviews tropical cyclone forecast and warning program • Presents comprehensive roadmap of activities to further improve the effectiveness of the Nation’s tropical cyclone forecast and warning service during the next decade and beyond • Plan is complemented by and consistent in many aspects with two other concurrent hurricane research projects / studies • NOAA’s Science Advisory Board (SAB) Hurricane Intensity Research Working Group (HIRWG) • National Science Board’s Task Force on Hurricane Science and Engineering (HSE)

  15. Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead Web site: http://www.ofcm.gov/p36-isrtc/fcm-p36.htm Hard copies coming…at the press….

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