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Population Projections Back and Forward by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment

Population Projections Back and Forward by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment . Presented by Samir KC 1 Contributors: Bilal Barakat 1,2 , Anne Goujon 1,2 , Wolfgang Lutz 1,2 , Warren Sanderson 1,3 , Vegard Skirbekk 1.

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Population Projections Back and Forward by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment

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  1. Population Projections Back and Forward by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment Presented by Samir KC1 Contributors: Bilal Barakat1,2, Anne Goujon1,2, Wolfgang Lutz1,2, Warren Sanderson1,3, Vegard Skirbekk1 1 IIASA World Population Program, Laxenburg, Austria; 2Vienna Institute for Demography, Vienna, Austria ; 3Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, USA 

  2. Presentation Outline • Need for Population Projections by education • Our Approach • Applications

  3. Need for population projections by age, sex and educational attainment • Changing definition of education categories in national time series • Standardization needed • Categories based on ISCED • Absence of time series data by age and sex • Education being an important explanatory variable in many processes • fertility, mortality, migration, vulnerability analysis, conflict, …. • Future planning, target setting (MDG, EFA) etc….

  4. Reconstruction of past education distribution by age and sex • Start with 2000 distribution as base year • 5 yearly age groups • Males/Females • 4 education categories • Less than one year of Primary education • More than one year of Primary education • Completed lower secondary education • Completed first level of tertiary education

  5. Reconstruction • Move backwards • 5 year step • With differential mortality and migration • Positive Correlation between life expectancy and educational attainment • At age 15: a difference of 5 years • Demographic Multi-state Cohort Component Method used • Four states of education with backward education transitions from higher level to lower level • Moving backward along cohort line • Matching Population Distribution with the UNPD’s estimates

  6. Singapore

  7. Nepal

  8. Projections • Same starting distribution • 2005 – 2050 • Future Demographic Trajectories • UNPD – World Population Prospects 2006 • Eurostat • Own Estimates for few non European low fertility countries • Future Education Trajectories • Baseline – Global Education Trend Scenario • Other scenarios ranges from • Most rapid educational expansion – Fast Track Scenario • Assumptions of constant enrollment ratios and numbers

  9. Projections • Multi-state • Transition between different levels of education • Cohort Component method • Projections along cohort lines • 123 countries of the world

  10. Global Education Trend Scenario • Baseline Trend, Business as Usual etc. • Based on the past education trend • All countries pooled together • Fitted using cubic spline • General trend of improvement • Plausible medium-term scenario

  11. Fertility Differential

  12. Mortality Differentials • Life expectancy at age 15 • 5 years difference between the tertiary educated and those with no formal education • Migration • Net Migration (WPP 2006) • Own calculation – age-sex distribution • By education • Negative Net migration – sending country’s distribution • Positive Net migration – pool of all sending countries’ distribution

  13. Projection Result

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  25. Projection Results

  26. Using the data • Economic analysis: Human Capital and Economic Growth – (Lutz et al, 2008 in Science; Sanderson and Striessnig, 2009) • Analysis of Youth Bulges and Conflict (Barakat & Urdal, 2008) • OECD: Projected tertiary educated population in 2030 in a selected number of non-OECD countries. • Eberstadt, Nicholas: Economic Outlook for Central Asian states, China, Russia, Iran, Turkey.

  27. Using the data • Estimating effects of educational attainment on economic growth • Improving economic growth forecasts by assessing the interactions between education and demographic trends • Studying the effect of human capital on health indicators • Assessing the effects of education on democratization processes and politicalinstitutions

  28. Possible Uses • Check feasibility of international education targets • Analyze the role of education in: • Adaptive capacity to environmental disaster • Vulnerability analysis

  29. Future plans • Country or Region specific differentials • Country or Region specific Education Scenarios • Adding more countries • Link education and disability (health) status for projections • Link education and place of residence (urban/rural) status for projections

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