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The lay of the land

The lay of the land. Oslo, its aftermath, and political players in 21st century Palestine-Israel. What happened after the 1 st Intifada?. Palestinians & Israelis come to the negotiation table for the 1 st time. Why? Gulf War End of Cold War Intifada 1991 Madrid negotiations

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The lay of the land

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  1. The lay of the land Oslo, its aftermath, and political players in 21st century Palestine-Israel

  2. What happened after the 1st Intifada? • Palestinians & Israelis come to the negotiation table for the 1st time. Why? • Gulf War • End of Cold War • Intifada • 1991 Madrid negotiations • 1993 & 1995 Oslo Accords

  3. Main tenets of the Oslo Accords • Interim settlement NOT a final agreement • PLO recognizes Israel’s “right to exist” and forswears use of violence • Israel allows creation of Palestinian National Authority under leadership of the PLO to govern some parts of the Occupied Territories in some administrative & economic spheres. • Total territory transferred to sole Palestinian control is 3-4% of the West Bank & Gaza.

  4. Oslo Accords: Control over Land • Palestinians get self rule for the 1st time in their history, but highly circumscribed. • Land in the Occupied Territories divided into 3 zones • Area A zones: full PA civil and security control • Area B zones: PA civil control, Israeli military & security control • Area C zones: Israeli civil and security control • Ultimately gave PA control over most of the territories’ population but only over about 5 % of land • Israel retains right to patrol all borders & control airspace • Israeli military, Jewish settlers, and Israeli citizens retain all rights to enter all territories

  5. Oslo Accords: Land

  6. Source: Foundation for Middle East Peace

  7. Return to Conflict • End of Oslo process • 1995 Assassination of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin by Israeli assassin • Palestinian bombings within Israel • 1996 Election of more conservative Israeli government (Netanyahu) • Second Palestinian Intifada (Al Aqsa Intifada), 2000-2004 • 2001 election of Ariel Sharon What were the underlying causes of the collapse of the Peace Process?

  8. Al Aqsa intifada: Underlying Grievances • Failure of Oslo Accords (1993-1995): Stalled peace process • Israeli Settlements • Area occupied by settlements doubled between 1992 and 1999 • Around 480,000 settlers in the WB and Jerusalem (about 9-10% of WB population today) • 56 new settlements established in 2002-2003. • 140-180 settlements total in the WB and Gaza • Bypass roads • Poor and autocratic PA administration • Economic suffering

  9. Pal. Repertoires • Who • Hamas • Carried out about 50% suicide bombings • Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades • Militant wing of Fatah • About 25% suicide bombings • Islamic Jihad • How: • Urban warfare • Armed attacks on army posts, Israeli settlements • Military equipment: light arms, hand grenades, remote-controlled landmines, Qassam rockets. • Suicide bombings • Clashes at checkpoints between young Palestinian men and soldiers Above, Rescue workers aid a woman injured in a 2002 Tel Aviv bombing that killed 22 people and injured more than 100. Both Islamic Jihad and the Al-Aqsa Brigades claimed responsibility.

  10. Israeli Responses • Reoccupation of PA cities • Aerial and land attacks on Palestinian communities • Hundreds of Palestinians killed • Destruction of houses • 2001-2005: 666 houses destroyed as punitive measure (not in course of combat) • Cessation announced Feb. ’05. • Assassinations • 329 Palestinians killed by Israelis through assassination attempts (213 actually targeted) • Hamas leaders Sheikh Ahmed Yassin and Abdel Aziz al-Rantisi assassinated • Curfews & checkpoints • 27 permanently staffed checkpoints in West Bank plus 26 on Green Line • Separation barrier (wall) • Begun June 2002 Israeli tanks move into Ramallah, 2002. Photos: BBC

  11. Al-Aqsa Intifada: fatalities(9/29/2000-02/2006) • 684 Israeli civilians, including 118 minors, killed by Palestinians. • 309 members of the Israeli security forces killed by Palestinians • 3,331 Palestinians, including 643 minors, killed by Israeli security forces. • 41 Palestinians, including 3 minors, killed by Israeli civilians. • 169 Palestinians killed by other Palestinians for suspected collaboration with Israel • (Source: B’Tselem)

  12. Initial results • Kept the conflict in the news (especially by al Jazeera TV) • Substantial shift to the right in Israeli public opinion • New narrative of non-possibility of negotiated peace • Rhetoric of demonization from both Palestinians and Israelis (“no partners in peace”) • 50% Palestinian unemployment (up dramatically since 2000) • 65% of Palestinians classified as below poverty line • Wide critiques of PA • PA inability to provide strategy for resistance

  13. Israel: basic characteristics • Highly centralized (unitary) • Knesset (parliament) • 120 seats • PR system, closed list, 2% threshhold • Hierarchical (leadership-driven) politics • “Porous” boundaries between defense and legislative branches, and legislative and religious institutions • Key interest groups: Military (IDF) and religious establishment • Strong and independent Supreme Court, but family law under separate religious courts • Ethnic hierarchy (“ethnocracy?”) • Re-conceptualizing Israel and the PA: one regime or two?

  14. Israel: Key Players U.S. PM Generals High Court of Justice Cabinet Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) President PA/Fatah/ Hamas Knesset Rabbinical Establishment Kadima Shas NRP-Nat Union Likud Labor United Arab List

  15. Palestinian National Authority (PA) President Appoints PM & cabinet Directly elected by people Prime Minister & cabinet  Mixed electoral system: 50% by PR 50% by plurality Palestinian Legislative Council * 132 members   Basic Law (serves as constitution) A general view over Al Manara roundabout adorned with posters for the electoral campaign one day before the legislative elections, in the West Bank town of Ramallah January 24, 2006. (MAANnews/Charlotte de Bellabre

  16. Recent events • Nov 2004 Arafat dies • Aug-Sept 2005 unilateral Israel disengagement from Gaza • Israeli assassinations and airstrikes against Hamas and Gaza; Palestinian rocket attacks in Israel • Fatah/Hamas ceasefire towards Israel 2005-2006 • Jan 2006 Hamas victory in PA Legislative elections • June 2007 Battle of Gaza • Gaza and W. Bank de facto divided into two entities • Emergency government in PA • 2007-2008 Israel embargo on Gaza • strictly limits exports to Gaza & seals borders (Jan 2008) • Critical shortages of fuel medicine, food, supplies in Gaza • Jan 2008 Palestinian breaching of Gaza-Egypt wall • Israeli attack on Gaza, Dec/Jan 2008-2009

  17. Casualties 2005-Dec 26 2008 • Palestinians killed by Israeli sec. forces in OT and Israel, 4861 • # of minors: 956 • Pal’s killed by Israeli civilians: 47 • Israeli civilians killed by Pal’s in OT and Israel: 727 • # of minors: 123 • Israeli soldiers killed: 335 • Palestinians killed by Pals: 594 Casualties in 2008-2009 Gaza Attack • 1,100-1,400 Pal’s killed • 300-900 civilians; 100-400 minors • 13 Israelis • Source: UN, B’Tselem

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