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Examination of Future Air Quality Using Alternate Projected Emission Scenarios

Examination of Future Air Quality Using Alternate Projected Emission Scenarios. C. Nolte, R. Pinder, W. Benjey, D. Loughlin, A. Gilliland, G. Pouliot, T. Otte. Climate Impact on Regional Air Quality (CIRAQ). Initial work: focus on effect of climate change only

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Examination of Future Air Quality Using Alternate Projected Emission Scenarios

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  1. Examination of Future Air Quality Using Alternate Projected Emission Scenarios C. Nolte, R. Pinder, W. Benjey, D. Loughlin, A. Gilliland, G. Pouliot, T. Otte

  2. Climate Impact on Regional Air Quality (CIRAQ) • Initial work: focus on effect of climate change only • GISS II’ GCM (Harvard) driven by A1B GHGs, downscaled with MM5 (PNNL). • Anthropogenic emissions held constant at 2002 levels; biogenics allowed to vary with climate • Contributed to NCEA Interim Assessment report, CCSP Synthesis & Assessment Product 3.2 • This work: use scenarios of future emissions to examine future air quality under future climate

  3. MARKAL Overview • Economic linear programming model that characterizes scenarios of the evolution of the U.S. energy system • Represents thousands of technologies for the major U.S. energy-consuming sectors (e.g., electricity production, transportation, industrial, residential, commercial) • Simulates the competition of technologies and fuels for market share, identifying least cost technology pathways and tracking the resulting fuel use and emissions

  4. MARKAL Application • Results presented here were generated with MARKAL and a developmental version of the U.S. EPA 9-Region MARKAL database using a 5-year time step. • Factors representing changes in energy use for each technology are mapped to the applicable SCC for each region and state, then applied to the 2002 National Emission Inventory. See poster by W. Benjey for further details on MARKAL and its linkage to SMOKE.

  5. U.S. Census Regions Used With MARKAL MARKAL Regions 1 9 4 2 3 8 5 6 7

  6. MARKAL Scenarios Examined 2. Baseline projection with CAIR constraints removed 1. Baseline projection, with CAIR but no carbon policy 3. Carbon policy scenario, with CAIR constraints removed 4. Baseline projection, with aggressive light duty transportation technology adoption 5. Carbon policy, with aggressive light duty transportation technology adoption

  7. MARKAL Annual Emission Totals

  8. Static Ag (increased 38% from 2002) Afdust (same as 2002) Avefire (same as 2002) Othpt – Canada/Mexico point sources Othar – Canada/Mexico area sources Othon – Canada/Mexico onroad sources Biogenic emissions (BEIS or MEGAN) Varying by MARKAL Scenario Onroad Nonroad Alm_no_c3 Ptipm (point source emissions from electric generating units) Ptnonipm (other industrial point sources) Nonpt (area sources) Seca_c3 (offshore ship emission control area) SMOKE Emission Sectors

  9. SMOKE Annual Emissions Totals

  10. Domain-wide Emissions Totals

  11. CMAQ Simulations • CMAQ 4.7, SAPRC99, GISS II’/MM5 met, 36 km CONUS (156x102), standard profile BCs. • Annual (2048 meteorology) simulations for MARKAL scenarios 1-3 and BEIS. • Sensitivity simulations • 2002ae emissions • MEGAN biogenics • vary CH4

  12. U.S. Census Regions Used With MARKAL MARKAL Regions 1 9 4 2 3 8 5 6 7

  13. Regional Mean MDA8 (July)

  14. Conclusions • Variation across MARKAL scenarios smaller than decrease from current levels; all scenarios have large NOx decreases at 2050 due to Tier 2 standards for light-duty vehicles. • Uncontrolled/unmodeled sectors become relatively more important. • For these cost assumptions in MARKAL, carbon policy scenario at 2050 more stringent for NOx and SO2 than original CAIR caps. • For these emissions and climate scenarios, decrease in ozone due to changing emissions is much larger than increase due to climate change.

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