Envision Tomorrow Updates and indicators

1. Envision TomorrowUpdates and indicators

2. What is Envision Tomorrow? • Suite of planning tools: • GIS Analysis Tools • Prototype Builder • Return on Investment (ROI) model • Scenario Builder • Extension for ArcGIS • Performance Models

3. Why Use Scenario Planning? • Weigh choices against consequences • Test policy options quickly • Prepare for uncertainty • Develop strategies to optimize outcomes

4. Scenario Building Process Scenario Development Evaluation Baseline Analysis Create Building & Development Types

5. Regional “Balance” Analysis • Jobs-Housing balance impacts transportation • GIS tool to identify imbalanced areas • Candidates for detailed scenarios

6. Redevelopment Readiness Analysis • A tool to assess which parcels within a study area may be candidates for redevelopment in the short term. • Two methods: • Low Hanging Fruit: isolate the bottom quartile of total value per acre (land + improvement) • Timing: estimate the parcels that are ready today, or within 5-10 years based on the age of the structure and the value of the land and a depreciation schedule.

7. Building-Level Financial Analysis • Envision Tomorrow Prototype Builder • Estimate ROI (Return on Investment) based on local costs and rents/sales prices • Gap Financing Tools

8. Test Financial Performance of Zoning Alternatives Baseline4 story Mixed Use with existing parking Optimal6 story Mixed Use with lower parking requirements

9. Create Prototype Buildings Why start with buildings? • Easily modeled & lots of existing data • Density and Design • Rents and Sales Prices • Costs and Affordability • Energy and Water Use • Fiscal Impacts • Physical Form • Height • Unit sizes • Parking configurations • Financial Reality • Rents / sales prices • Construction costs • Land costs Feasible?

10. Development Type MixA Variety of Buildings, Streets and Amenities Create a “Place” Town Center Medium-Density Residential Single-Family Residential

11. Real-time Scenario Building and Evaluation Select Paint See Changes in Real Time

12. Envision Tomorrow Scenario Indicators • Land consumption & impact • Vacant and redevelopment lands • Measure development impact to sensitive lands (user defined sensitive areas) • Infill and Redevelopment • Percentage of growth on vacant lands or accommodated through infill • Housing • Unit type mix, FAR, density, tenure • Cost and affordability (rents / sales prices) • Match to estimated future housing demand • Employment • Industry mix, FAR and density • Employment wage • Jobs-Housing Balance

13. Envision Tomorrow Scenario Indicators • Square footage of new buildings by type • Land use mix (entropy score) • Value of new buildings • Sales and property tax revenues • Value of required subsidy • Household and Population • Population and density • Average household size • Average household income • Based on new housing costs

14. Envision Tomorrow Scenario Indicators • Parking spaces, area and costs • Lot coverage and impervious surface • Private landscaping and open space • Estimated new street characteristics • New street length • Network and intersection density

15. Building-Level Sustainability Indicators • Building energy use • Carbon emissions from energy use • Landscaping water consumption • Internal building water consumption • Solid waste generated

16. Fiscal Impact Modeling • A Modified Version of the Federal “FIT” Fiscal Impact Model • Estimate and compare county and municipal revenues and costs from scenarios • Uses building values and infrastructure costs from Envision Tomorrow to capture explicit differences in revenues and costs from different land use types • Indicators: • Revenue Cost Ratio • New Revenues (Property, Income and Sales Taxes) • New Costs (Infrastructure, O&M and Services)

17. Revenues vs. Expenditures Net Annual Revenue

18. Proximity Measures (Walkable Access) • Calculate the proportion of development in a scenario that is within walking distance to any amenity, such as a school or park • Example: • 50% of residents are within a 10 minute walk to a park

19. AffordabilityHousing + Transportation + Energy Costs • Assess trade-offs • Trade higher housing costs for lower transportation costs?

20. Shared Parking Opportunity • Increases in walking combined with mixing uses presents an opportunity for shared parking

21. Transportation Indicators • Household Vehicle Miles Traveled • Trips by Mode • Auto • Transit • Walk • Bike • Cost of Transportation (Auto and Transit) • Health Benefits of Increased Walking • Changes is Transportation Air Pollutants

22. Household Travel App • Predicts travel behavior based on land use variables • Household VMT • Auto trips • Walk trips • Transit trips • Bike trips

23. 70 Output Fields Calculatedfor Each “Neighborhood” Boundary

24. Activity Density (Jobs + Pop) / Developed Area

25. Employment Access Within 10 minute auto trip

26. Job Population Balance 1-ABS(EMP-0.2*POP)/(EMP+0.2*POP)

27. Intersection Density Within a quarter mile

28. Percent 4-Way Intersections Within a quarter mile

29. Transit Stop Density Within a quarter mile

30. Rail Stop Density Within a quarter mile

31. Land Use Mix Within a quarter mile

32. HH VMT

33. Vehicle Trips

34. Walk Trips

35. Bike Trips

36. Transit Trips

37. Web-based ET+In Development • As easy as Google Maps • No costly licenses or fast computers required for users • Many uses: • Real-time zoning administration • Direct local feedback on forecasts or plans • Live workshops with technical audience • Scenario development on mobile devices http://et.tacc.utexas.edu/etmap.html