520 likes | 533 Views
20 years Int'l Sales & Marketing. Check out my blog "Digital Video for the Digital Generation": www.dusil.com <br><br>Download the native PowerPoint slides, and watch a video of this presentation from Visual Unity’s Open Day here: <br>http://gdusil.wordpress.com/2013/05/01/how-online-video-will-change-our-lives <br><br>Online video providers today have the ability to experience a one-to-one conversation with their audience, compared to the somewhat anonymous nature of this relationship in traditional TV. Viewing habits of consumers continue to rapidly change in the next ten years, bringing more choice, portability and accessibility to video. A granular nature to analyzing subscriber behavior will open new opportunities for content owners, end users, and everyone in between. This will require accompanying changes in advertising expenditure as it pertains to a global vs. local focus. In the global reach of video, due to the ubiquity of the Internet, online services will need optimize to capitalize on new market opportunities.
E N D
How Online Video Will Change Our Lives in the Next 10 Years Gabriel Dusil VP Marketing & Corporate Strategy Visual Unity www.facebook.com/gdusil . cz.linkedin.com/in/gabrieldusil . gdusil.wordpress.com . gabriel.dusil@visualunity.com .
Download the Original Presentation Download the native PowerPoint slides, and watch a video of this presentation from Visual Unity’s Open Day here: • http://gdusil.wordpress.com/2013/05/01/how-online-video-will-change- our-lives Or, check out other articles on my blog: • http://gdusil.wordpress.com ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 2
Channel Hopping Search & Discover | ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 3
Search & Discovery Search Recommendation Behavior Needs Impulse Wants Motivation Purpose Inspiration Desire Mood Content-Based Demographics Collaborative Behavior View Statistics Challenges Presentation Expectation Censorship Culture & Values Brand Equity Multiscreen ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 4
Online Surpass Broadcast by 2019 By the end of this decade, more people will be watching Internet video than broadcast TV. 36 Weekly Viewing Times for Video Time per week (hours) 24 12 Live Broadcast Internet Video 0 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 SocialTimes.com - http://socialtimes.com/online-video-to- surpass-us-broadcast-tv-by-end-of-decade_b13470 ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 5
Average Viewing per Device 12 Markets: US, UK, China, Spain, Sweden, Brazil, Taiwan, South Korea, Germany, Mexico, Chile, Italy TV-screen Desktop PC Laptop Smartphone Tablet In-home Out-of-home Portable Player Other screen hours 0 4 8 12 ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 6 Ericsson - TV & Video, Changing the Game ('12)
Viewing Time Spent by Media Type Internet Video Content will grow 12x by 2020 • From 90 Exabytes in 2012 to 1,100 Exabytes in 2020 OTT is "Over the Top" content that uses an internet connected device to an existing ISP service to receive content. eg. Roku, Blu-ray player, Nintendo Wii, Smart TV, Xbox, PlayStation, Tablet, etc. vConf. 2% linear TV 10% OTT 11% Cloud 11% OTT 48% VoD 22% linear TV 66% VoD 29% Alcatel-Lucent Bell Labs - “How the tablet generation is pushing networks to the edge”, 13th Dec. 2012 1 Exabyte = 1024 Petabytes 1 Petabyte = 1024 Terabytes ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 7
I only watch four channels. Why do I need to pay for over 500? ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 8
Granularity of Choice Today we need to buy the whole store to get a few books Tomorrow we will just get what we want to consume ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 9
Long Tail of Internet Video Current Blockbusters Widely Popular Top 100 titles Popularity of Content Dated or Foreign Blockbusters Niche Genres or Cult Classics A-list actors & directors in other films Rest of the Library Amount of Content ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 10
Consumer Entertainment Spending 20 Spending (billions US$) 15 10 Digital & VoD VHS Sales DVD rental DVD sales Blu-Ray rental Blu-Ray sales 5 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 11 Source: Rentrak & Digital Entertainment Group
A Turning Point for Digital Video - 2006 1080p LCD’s begin shipping Red One NAB’06 Netflix video streaming Netflix $1m Prize Apple iPhone 2005 2006 2007 Jan Nov Mar Jul Jul May May Sep Google buys YouTube 1st Blu-Ray released Microsoft PlayReady ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 12
For subscribers that have Cut-the-cord ... ... broadcast television has become a frustrating experience. ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 13
Decline in Cable Subscribers U.S. Cable TV Subscribers Subscribers (millions) 44 2.3m 42 40 ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Business Insider & ISI Group –“GOODBYE, CABLE TV: 2.3 Million Americans Have Pulled The Plug Since 2010” Page 14
Cutting the Cord Global Subscription Changes Spending Unchanged 63% Saving Money Reduced Spending 8% Not Watching Enough TV Cut the Cord Only Using Internet Services Eliminated Spending 7% Reduced Spending Reasons No Suitable Packages Increased Spending 22% 0% 20% 40% ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 15 Ericsson - TV & Video, Changing the Game ('12)
Televised vs. Personalized Online Video Providers have a 1to1 conversation with their audience Broadcasters don’t easily know who’s sitting in their audience ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 16
The chances of a print advertisement targeting me specifically are slim and far-between ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 17
Advertising Spend by Media Newspapers Outdoor Cinema Radio Magazines Internet Television Spending (billions US$) 400 200 0 ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 18 ZenithOptimedia - “Global Web Ad Spend to Rise 33% by ’13”
Productive Advertisement Spending Incorrect Location Correct Geography Optimize Productive Ad Spend In View Correct Brand Out Wrong Brand of View ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 19
Internet Video Recommendations Advice from Friends & Family Recommendations based on Past Latest Releases User Ratings Friends currently watching... Other users also watched… Most Popular Statistics Expert Recommendations Most Useful Recommendations 0% 20% 40% ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 20 Ericsson - TV & Video '11 (Consumer trends, Global, Nov '11)
Buffering . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 21
Broadband Speeds (Mbps) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Western Europe Leading the Pack 9.1 12.0 15.7 20.6 26.7 34.5 Global 11.1 14.3 18.5 24.2 31.9 41.6 Western Europe North America Asia Pacific C&EE 10.6 13.8 18.0 23.1 29.3 36.6 8.1 11.1 15.4 20.7 27.5 35.8 Sufficient for 4K @ H.265 9.5 12.1 15.3 19.1 23.7 29.2 Latin America ME&A 4.2 5.3 6.6 8.0 9.8 12.0 1.0 4.2 5.0 5.9 7.0 8.4 ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Cisco - VNI Service Adoption Forecast '11-'16 C&EE – Central & Eastern Europe, ME&A = Middle East & Africa Page 22
Consumer Traffic Forecast Voice over IP Online Gaming Other Data Web, email, Data P2P File Sharing Internet Video 90 80 P2P File Sharing will be 19% of Global Traffic by 2016 • 2 billion HD movies Video will be 47% Global Traffic by 2016 • 4.7 billion HD movies 70 60 50 Other Video Internet PVR Ambient Video Live Internet Short form Internet to TV Mobile Video Long form 40 30 20 10 0 Exabytes ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 23 Cisco - Visual Networking Index, Forecast & Methodology ‘11–‘16
Cost of Connectivity 500 Download Speed (Mbps) Price per Month (US$) 400 $40 300 200 $20 100 0 $0 The Cost of Connectivity, New America http://newamerica.net/publications/policy/the_cost_of_connectivity#4] ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 24
SD HD 4K 3840x2160 1920x1080 1024x576 ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 25
H.265 – Lower Operating & Capital Costs MPEG2 H.264 H.265 SD 1.6Mbps • On 25th January, 2013 the ITU announced first stage approval ½HD 2.4 Mbps HD, 5.6Mbps 4K, 22Mbps ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 26
Most certainly, when our walls become gigantic TV monitors ... then HD will be passé, and enthusiasts will be demanding even higher resolutions. ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 27
Audio-Video Adoption Penetration of AV in U.S. Households VCR - TVB CD - Nielsen DVD - Nielsen HD TV - TVB UHD* - Visual Unity *prediction Household Penetration 80% 60% Recession Recession Recession Recession 40% 20% 0% 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 7 years 2012 2016 2020 14 years 9 years Nielsen Media Research's - “Penetration of Media Devices in U.S. Homes” Television Bureau of Advertising - “TV Basics”, June 2012 ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 28
The last thing Hollywood needs is pirated 4K H.265 content ... downloadable even before a film reaches the theaters. ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 29
Illegal Challenges Illegal Drivers • Poor quality & Corrupt files Audio & video sync issues Improper audio track No forced or foreign subtitles • Incomplete Bundles No Deleted scenes, Behind the scenes, & Featurettes • Content Management Time consuming Requires a lot of storage • Security Risk of viruses, trojans, & malware • It’s illegal! • Lack of Content Availability • Untethered from DRM Free to transcode to multiple devices & formats • Access to all(most) content • It’s Free! ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 30
Legal Drivers Legal Challenges • Personable & Interactive Search: Collaborative, Statistical, Contextual, Recommendation Social Networking Suggestions & Peer Reviews • Attractive Price • Upgrade Frustrations VHS DVD Blu-Ray 4K 8K • Availability Limited Global Content Rights Delayed theatrical releases • DRM restrictions Titles not available across different OS’s or devices Watching on one device, & finish on another is restricted • Ease of Use • High Quality • Piece of Mind “I’m a good citizen” ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 31
Blame the Internet … lost to lost to lost to lost to ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 32
… or, thank the Internet … didn't replace didn't replace hasn't replaced hasn’t replaced ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 33
How Did We Get Into this Mess? MPEG-1 MP3 Napster Shutdown 26m users SlySoft AnyDVD HD Ultra- Violet DRM P2P 150m users Pirate Bay Blu- Ray TPB guilty CD Napster 2011 2010 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012 2013 1980’s VHS 1990’s DVD ISP 6- strike policy CSS iTunes Store MPAA sues TPB iTunes music DRM-free cracked Microsoft PlayReady DRM BitTorrent RIAA sues Individuals CD = Compact Disc DVD = Digital Versatile Disc TPB = The Pirate Bay HD = High Definition CSS = Content Scramble System DMCA = Digital Millennium Copyright Act ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 34
How Did We Get Out of this Mess? ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 35
Longevity Breadth ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 36
Accessibility Portability Quality Spain USA Price Ericsson - TV & Video, Changing the Game ('12) ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 37
The Internet is not replacing broadcast television ... It's just gives subscribers another choice. ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 38
©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 39
Consumption Is Personal I Gabriel by Dusil ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 40
Granularity of Choice II Gabriel by Dusil ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 41
Benchmarking the H.265 Video Experience III Gabriel by Dusil ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 42
Search & Discovery Is a Journey, not a Destination IV Gabriel by Dusil ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 43
Multiscreen Solutions for the Digital Generation V Gabriel by Dusil ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 44
Building a Case for Ultra High Definition VI Gabriel by Dusil ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 45
Are You Ready For Social TV? VII Tomas by Petru Gabriel by Dusil ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 46
Turning Piratez into Sailors Consumers VIII Gabriel byDusil ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 47
vuManagement image vuMultiscreen vuNet vuIngest Search Discovery Reports Stats Analysis live Scheduler Recorder Metadata db OTT STB Client Relationship Management Content Management System audio Web App Optimize Profiles Frame size Bitrate film App Store Live Stream LinkShield DRM GeoIP cam VoD Storage Auditing Advertising Gateway Payment vuMedia disc v2.0 AV = Audio Visual OTT = Over the Top Content STB = Set Top Box VoD = Video On Demand ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 48
Visual Unity Open Day - Ecosystem vuIngest vuManagement vuNet Quality Control Media Asset Management Audio & Video Processing Archive Management Audio Processing & Management Storage Management Encoding, Delivery & Workflow ©2013 gabriel@dusil.com gdusil.wordpress.com Page 49
www.facebook.com/gdusil cz.linkedin.com/in/gabrieldusil gdusil.wordpress.com gabriel.dusil@visualunity.com