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2014 RTP Inputs and Assumptions May 20, 2014

2014 RTP Inputs and Assumptions May 20, 2014. Outline. Updates to 2014 RTP Next steps. Updates to 2014 RTP: Load. Old load forecasting methodology produced a load forecast which required minor adjustments to align with the planning weather zones

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2014 RTP Inputs and Assumptions May 20, 2014

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  1. 2014 RTP Inputs and Assumptions May 20, 2014

  2. Outline • Updates to 2014 RTP • Next steps

  3. Updates to 2014 RTP: Load • Old load forecasting methodology produced a load forecast which required minor adjustments to align with the planning weather zones • New load forecasting methodology uses inputs which are consistent with weather zone mapping used in planning model • New Load levels are marginally different to the previous values.

  4. Updates to 2014 RTP: Non-conforming load identification • RTP Scope document described the methodology to identify non-conforming load as “ERCOT will identify “Flat” load by examining the eight 2013 Data Set A seasonal cases.  Any loads that of the eight seasonal loads have a maximum load value to minimum load value of 1.3 or lower will be considered Flat.” • The new process fine tunes identification of such loads by relying more on the TDSP provided data obtained from the operations model.

  5. New RTP Load Levels New RTP load level RTP load presented in previous meeting Note: The above tables represents the higher-off the SSWG and 90th percentile load levels. The numbers in red are 90th percentile values

  6. Generation Updates • 714 MW of Bertron units have been added to the mothball list based on the May Capacity Demand and Reserves report • Horse Hollow 1 (HH1) will be connected to Bluff Creek (West) instead of Kendall (south). The rest of the Horse Hollow plants will be connected to Kendall (south)

  7. Updated NCP Load-Generation Balance Summary

  8. Updated study regions in 2014 RTP + Wind output outside study region increased up to the 25th percentile output* Outside load will be scaled from the “higher-of” load levels

  9. Next steps

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