“GRAYSHORE: The Coming Senior Boom” October 12, 2004

1. “GRAYSHORE: The Coming Senior Boom”October 12, 2004 MAC INCORPORATED Area Agency on Aging

2. Research generously supported by…MAC INCORPORATED -- Area Agency on AgingCommunity Foundation of the Eastern ShoreWorcester County Economic Development

3. BEACON’s Spring 2004 Study … • To assess the impact of an aging population on the four counties of the Lower Shore. • To help regional decision leaders with their program planning and community education efforts.

4. What We Did… • Extensive secondary research • In-depth Opinion Leader interviews across four Lower Shore counties • Multiple stakeholder meetings

5. What We Hope To Do This Morning… • Frame the key issues critical to “GRAYSHORE” • Learn from YOU… • Catalyze a coalition to continue this effort!

6. Demographics of Aging

7. An Aging World… Average life expectancy: 1900 47 years 2001 77 years

8. An Aging Nation…Elderly are Fastest Growing Segment • [1] U.S. Census Bureau, http://www.census.gov/population/www/pop-profile/elderpop.html. • [2] The Decade for Health in Aging: The Challenge, The AGS Foundation for Health in Aging, http://www.healthinaging.org/public_policy/decade_challenge.php.

9. Characteristics ofAging Population: • More racially and ethnically diverse • Disproportionate number of elderly women. Currently: - 59% of 65+ are women - 70% of 85+ are women

10. [1] Cultural Issues: Elderly, The New England ATTC (Addiction Technology Transfer Center Network), (http://www.attc-ne.org/cultural/elderly.html.

11. An Aging Maryland… [1] Maryland Department of Aging, http://www.mdoa.state.md.us/demographicsn.html, 1.

13. 34.9 and under 35.0 - 35.9 36.0 - 37.9 38.0 and over Median Age [1] Maryland Department of Aging, http://www.mdoa.state.md.us/demographicsn.html, 1.

14. 2000 Lower Eastern Shore Median Age [1] US Bureau of Census, March 1997 Current Population, cited in “Poverty Fact Sheet Series – Poverty Among the Elderly,” Ohio State University Extension Fact Sheet, The Ohio State University. http://ohioline.osu.edu/hyg-fact/5000/5706.html

15. Current and Projected % of Pop. 65+ [1] Maryland State Data Center, Projections, http://www.mdp.state.md.us/msdc/dw_map.htm.

16. What Will this “Senior Boom” Mean for Us…?

17. Our Challenges…

18. I. Long-Term Elder Care & Housing

19. Health Realities of Older Pop. • Chronic diseases: - 75% of 65+ have at least one - 50% of 65+ have at least two • Mental health problems • Need “elder-friendly” care

20. Not Enough Health Care Professionals • Geriatricians: Number needs to double • Nurses: 20% deficit by 2020 • Nursing Aides, CNAs, GNAs: 91% of nursing homes understaffed

21. Not Enough (Affordable) Elder Housing Options Most seniors “age in place” Goal = “least restrictive setting Needed = long-term “continuum of care”

22. Not Enough Public Resources • Medicare: no long-term care coverage • Medicaid: primarily nursing home • Assisted living = not covered • Subsidized senior housing: wait lists • State/Local senior aid programs: funding cuts

23. Fragmented Service Delivery • Multiple agencies: DHR, DHMH, Dept. of Aging, DSS’s, MAC Commissions on Aging • Multiple points of entry and assessments • Lack of coordination between housing and social services programs

24. II. Elder Finances

25. The Good News… Senior poverty is down: 1959: 35% poverty rate 1999: 10% poverty rate

26. The Bad News… • New challenges threaten seniors’ financial security • Will affect both low and middle-income seniors • Overall, retirees will have $45 billion less than needed to cover basic expenses/year by 2030 (EBRI)

27. AARP says: “[T]he state of the 50+ population can best be described today as vulnerable.”

28. “It could be a train wreck…” • Longer lives • Chronic illnesses • Rising medical costs • Decline in pensions • Inadequate savings • Drop in stock market • Credit card/mortgage debt

29. Disparities • Black and Hispanic elderly more than 2x as likely to be poor • Women 2x as likely to be poor • Rural elderly more likely to be poor

30. 2000 Lower E.S. Poverty Rate: 65+ [1] Maryland Department of Aging, http://www.mdoa.state.md.us/demographicsn.html, 1-2.

31. Public Resources: Inadequate • 1950 16:1 2004 3:1 • $27.7 trillion • 12%/yr • 93

32. And remember…. Few public programs offer a flexible array of LONG TERM CARE options.

33. III. Elder Mobility

34. Mobility = Independence • “ Useless..” • “Miserable… • “Confined…” • “Lost…”

35. Mobility = Danger • Teenagers and older drivers have highest per-mile fatal crash rates • By 2030, drivers 65+ are expected to account for 16% of all crashes and 25% of all fatal crashes

36. We Also Have Opportunities…

37. I. Senior Spending Power Americans who are 50+… - Control 70% of wealth - Account for 50% of discretionary spending

38. II.Senior Markets • Elder care products and services • Retrofitted and Universal Design housing • Tourism, recreation, and education activities

39. III. Seniors in the Workforce • 80% of boomers plan to work past retirement age • Hardworking, loyal, experienced • Include entrepreneurs / investors • May need training, flexible scheduling, “bridge benefits”

40. IV.Senior Contributions to Community • Voluntarism (87%) • Civic Engagement: The elderly vote accounts for close to 1/3 of the vote nationwide (NY Times)

41. Some Food for Thought on Delmarva… • What do we need to do NOW to prepare for the “senior boom?” • How do we balance inter- generational needs when resources are limited? • How can we help “from heres” and “come heres” get along? • How can we be “senior friendly” and still retain our youth (i.e., stop brain-drain)?

42. Next Steps • Let’s hear from you! • Let’s form a regional GRAYSHORE coalition to: - Continue educating community - Develop a GRAYSHORE Scorecard - Define priorities and explore funding for pilot projects that could lead to lasting solutions

43. How would YOU like to be involved?

44. “We are confronted by insurmountable opportunities.” Pogo

45. Thank You!For This and Other Presentations… Visit us at http://beacon.salisbury.edu