The International Oil Price Boom in Latin America: Bolivia, Chile, Colombia,

1. Australian National Centre for Latin American Studies (ANCLAS) Third Annual Conference The International Oil Price Boom in Latin America: Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Nicaragua and Venezuela Mauricio Medinaceli Monrroy September, 2013

2. List of Topics Selection of Countries GDP and per capita GDP growth Model and Results Case Study: Bolivia Main Conclusions

3. List of Topics Selection of Countries GDP and per capita GDP growth Model and Results Case Study: Bolivia Main Conclusions

4. Selection of Countries Why this Countries? Mexico Nicaragua Venezuela Colombia Bolivia Export Countries Chile Import Countries

5. Selection of Countries Hypothesis Oil Boom International Prices have different economic impact over countries in Latin America

6. List of Topics Selection of Countries GDP and per capita GDP growth Model and Results Case Study: Bolivia Main Conclusions

7. GDP & Per Capita GDP GDP Growth

8. GDP & Per Capita GDP GDP Growth

9. GDP & Per Capita GDP GDP Growth

10. GDP & Per Capita GDP GDP Growth

11. GDP & Per Capita GDP Per Capita GDP Growth

12. List of Topics Selection of Countries GDP and per capita GDP growth Model and Results Case Study: Bolivia Main Conclusions

13. Model and Results Variables K/GDP G/GDP

14. Model and Results Variables (X+M)/GDP TT/GDP

15. Model and Results Variables Illiteracy Rate Devaluation

16. Model and Results Variables USA GDP Growth China GDP Growth

17. Model and Results Variables Prices Imports

18. Model and Results WTI Price and Per Capita GDP Growth

19. Model and Results WTI Price and Per Capita GDP Growth

20. Model and Results WTI Price and Per Capita GDP Growth

21. Model and Results WTI Price and Per Capita GDP Growth

22. Model and Results WTI Price and Per Capita GDP Growth Not very conclusive, what we can do?

23. Model and Results WTI Price and Per Capita GDP Growth Semi Non Parametric relation

24. Model and Results WTI Price and Per Capita GDP Growth

25. Model and Results WTI Price and Per Capita GDP Growth The positive relation between GDP growth and oil prices, for producer countries, is always good?

26. List of Topics Selection of Countries GDP and per capita GDP growth Model and Results Case Study: Bolivia Main Conclusions

27. Case Study: Bolivia Markets for Bolivian Natural Gas

28. Case Study: Bolivia Natural Gas Export Prices

29. Case Study: Bolivia Royalties and ProductionTax

30. Case Study: Bolivia “Cake” Division in Upstream

31. Case Study: Bolivia Micro – Macro Model Results

32. Case Study: Bolivia Micro – Macro Model Results

33. Case Study: Bolivia Micro – Macro Model Results

34. Case Study: Bolivia Micro – Macro Model Results

35. Case Study: Bolivia Why? The logic behind is as follows: More demand from Brazil and Argentina associated with high international prices, generates an increase in Bolivian natural gas exports More export value generates more natural gas production value That generates more fiscal revenues from royalties and production taxes Because of current law, more fiscal resources increase the internal demand for construction, transport and formal services An increase in the internal demand generates inflation More inflation generates a decrease in the real income of people who don't participate directly of the hydrocarbons sector, this, at the end, increase global poverty and inequality

36. List of Topics Selection of Countries GDP and per capita GDP growth Model and Results Case Study: Bolivia Main Conclusions

37. Case Study: Bolivia Why? Not all the countries in LAC are the same Producer countries really benefits from oil price boom A high oil price generates a GDP growth in Producer Countries A high oil price generates a GDP decrease in Import Countries Not always a high GDP generates good social indicators

38. Energy Consumption How to read the Figure? High GDP High energy consumption High GDP Low energy consumption Per Capita GDP   Low GDP High energy consumption Low GDP Low energy consumption    Per Capita Energy Consumption

39. Energy Consumption 1970 Sizedepends of population Uruguay Colombia Argentina Venezuela Ecuador México Bolivia Chile Perú Brasil Guatemala Paraguay

40. Energy Consumption 1970

41. Energy Consumption 1971

42. Energy Consumption 1972

43. Energy Consumption 1973

44. Energy Consumption 1974

45. Energy Consumption 1975

46. Energy Consumption 1976

47. Energy Consumption 1977

48. Energy Consumption 1978

49. Energy Consumption 1979

50. Energy Consumption 1980