YKL REA Aquatics Becky Shaftel , Leah Kenney, and Timm Nawrocki

1. YKL REA Aquatics Becky Shaftel, Leah Kenney, and TimmNawrocki

2. Aquatics in the REA • Conservation elements • Distribution mapping methods and results • Conceptual models • Management questions

3. Aquatic conservation elements • Coarse filters • Streams and rivers • Connected lakes • Disconnected lakes • Fine filters • Chinook salmon • Chum salmon • Sheefish • Dolly Varden • Northern pike Photo: ADF&G Photo: ADF&G

4. Streams and rivers Methods: flowlines from the USGS National Hydrography Dataset Results: Length = 454,000 km

5. Connected lakes Methods: waterbodies connected to flowlines in the National Hydrography Dataset Results: Count = 31,600 lakes Area = 25,800 km2 Photo: USFWS

6. Disconnected lakes Methods: waterbodies not connected to flowlines in the National Hydrography Dataset Results: Count = 103,600 lakes Area = 9,400 km2 Photo: USFWS

7. Chinook Salmon Methods: Clipped from the Anadromous Waters Catalog event feature class Results: Photo: USFWS

8. Chum Salmon Methods: Clipped from the Anadromous Waters Catalog event feature class Results: Photo: USFWS

9. Sheefish Methods: Clipped from the Anadromous Waters Catalog event feature class Results: Photo: USFWS

10. Fish Distribution Models Process AFFID data for use in models Classification tree and random forest models ADF&G AFFID species occurrence data Create stream network and landscape predictor variables in GIS GIS source data Evaluate model performance Predict species habitat across REA study area Fish distributions Photo: USFWS

11. Stream Network • Used TauDEM to process DEM • Add in additional HUCs on boundary of study area that flow into the study area • Fill pits • Calculate flow direction (D8 method) • Calculate contributing area • Create stream network based on curvature method and drop analysis

12. Predictor Variables Photo: USFWS

13. Process AFFID data • Select all presences by fish in AFFID • Select absences from projects in AFFID that listed fish community sampling as an objective • Resample data in areas of high intensity to match densities in other HUCs • Shift points along flow direction grid until they reached the stream network • Extract all predictor variables to each data point for model development

14. Classification Trees Asterospicularia laurae Shelf: Inner, Mid Shelf: Outer Absent 0.97 (263) Location: Back, Flank Location: Front Depth < 3m Depth ≥ 3m Absent 0.78 (64) Absent 0.56 (9) Present 0.81 (37) (De'Ath and Fabricious 2000) Classification Tree Analysis Steps: • Identify the groups • Choose the variables • Identify the split that maximizes the homogeneity of the resulting groups • Determine a stopping point for the tree • Prune the tree using cross-validation Misclassification rates: Null = 15%, Model = 9% Photo: USFWS

15. Random Forests • Creates many classification trees and combines predictions from all of them: • Start with bootstrapped samples of data • Observations not included are called out-of-bag (OOB) • Fit a classification tree to each bootstrap sample, for each node, use a subset of the predictor variables. • Determine the predicted class for each observation based on majority vote of OOB predictions • To determine variable importance, compare misclassification rates for OOB observations using true and randomly permuted data for each predictor

16. Run models in R ct1<-mvpart(pres.f~.,data=fish.pred1[s1,],xv="1se") rf1<-randomForest(pres.f~.,data=fish.pred1[s1,],ntree=999) Photo: USFWS

17. Model Performance Photo: USFWS

18. Dolly Varden Results: ~ 32,000 km of predicted summer habitat (restricted to stream reaches > 1 km in length) Photo: USFWS

19. Increased potential for establishment of invasive macrophytes and changing fire dynamics ClimateChange Human Uses Fire Invasive Macrophytes Increased contaminant sources Mining Habitat loss, changes in migration routes, increased sedimentation Temperature Precipitation Temporary increases in nutrient inputs; increase sedimentatitation Infrastructure Change in deposition rates Permafrost thaw Harvest Increased toxicity Reduction in habitat Expanded ice-free season Direct population decline Contaminants Reduction in juvenile fitness; bioaccumulation in adults Changes in hydrology Increase in ground flow; increase in sedimentation Reduction in age at maturity and shift in spawning season Permafrost Change Agents • Fish species Drivers CE Habitat General Effect

20. Increased potential for establishment of invasive macrophytes and changing fire dynamics ClimateChange Human Uses Fire Invasive Macrophytes Increased contaminant sources Mining Temperature Precipitation Infrastructure Direct destruction of habitat, hindrance of migration routes, increased downstream turbidity and sedimentation Change in deposition rates Elodea spp could reduce quality of foraging habitat Permafrost thaw Harvest Increased toxicity Temporary increases in nutrient inputs Expanded ice-free season Direct population decline Contaminants Reduction in juvenile fitness; bioaccumulation in adults Increased winter precipitation may increase overwintering habitat Increase groundwater flow improves overwinter habitat Reduction in age at maturity and shift in spawning season Permafrost • Dolly Varden • Salvelinusmalma Change Agents Drivers Habitat CE General Effect CE-Specific Effect

21. Increased potential for establishment of invasive macrophytes and changing fire dynamics ClimateChange Human Uses Fire Invasive Macrophytes Increased contaminant sources Mining Temperature Precipitation Infrastructure Direct destruction of habitat, hindrance of migration routes, increased downstream turbidity and sedimentation Change in deposition rates Permafrost thaw Harvest Elodeassp could reduce quality of spawning habitat In creased toxicity Temporary increases in nutrient inputs Subsistence harvest pressures on overwintering populations Expanded ice-free season Contaminants Increased winter precipitation may increase overwintering habitat Bioaccumulation of mercury in adults Increase depth of active layer will increase lake drainage area Reduction in age at maturity and shift in spawning season Permafrost Northern Pike Esoxlucius Change Agents Drivers Habitat CE General Effect CE-Specific Effect

22. Increased potential for establishment of invasive macrophytes and changing fire dynamics ClimateChange Human Uses Fire Invasive Macrophytes Increased contaminant sources Mining Sedimentation of gravel-substrate in streams will reduce quality of spawning habitat Temperature Precipitation Infrastructure Direct destruction of habitat, hindrance of migration routes, increased downstream turbidity and sedimentation Change in deposition rates Permafrost thaw Harvest In creased toxicity Direct population decline and removal of mature, healthy individuals Reduction in juvenile feeding habitat Expanded ice-free season Contaminants Reduction in juvenile fitness; bioaccumulation in adults High winter flow may affect spawning habitat Sedimentation of gravel-substrate will reduce quality of spawning habitat Reduction in age at maturity and shift in spawning season to later Permafrost • Sheefish • Stenodusleucichthys Change Agents Drivers Habitat CE General Effect CE-Specific Effect

23. Increased potential for establishment of invasive macrophytes and changing fire dynamics ClimateChange Human Uses Fire Invasive Macrophytes Increased contaminant sources Mining Sedimentation of gravel-substrate will reduce quality of spawning habitat; Temporary increases in nutrient inputs could increase juvenile foraging Temperature Precipitation Infrastructure Habitat loss, changes in migration routes, increased sedimentation Change in deposition rates Harvest Reduction in spawning and rearing habitat Permafrost thaw Increased toxicity Direct population decline and removal of mature, healthy individuals Expanded ice-free season Contaminants Reduction in juvenile fitness Increase stream flow overwinter reduce egg survival Increase in winter habitat for juveniles Reduction in age at maturity; earlier spawning season; increased parasite infection Permafrost • Chinook Salmon • Oncorhynchustshawytscha Change Agents Drivers Habitat CE General Effect CE-Specific Effect

24. Increased potential for establishment of invasive macrophytes and changing fire dynamics ClimateChange Human Uses Fire Invasive Macrophytes Mining Sedimentation of gravel-substrate in streams will reduce quality of spawning habitat Temperature Precipitation Infrastructure Harvest Permafrost thaw Increase stream flow overwintr reduce quality of spawning habitat and egg survival Habitat loss, changes in migration routes, increased sedimentation Direct population decline and removal of mature, healthy individuals Reduction in spawning habitat Expanded ice-free season Increased stream discharge could increase sedimentation and scour eggs Permafrost Reduction in age at maturity; earlier spawning season; increased egg incubation time • Chum Salmon • Oncorhynchusketa Change Agents Drivers Habitat CE General Effect CE-Specific Effect

25. Increased potential for establishment of invasive macrophytes and changing fire dynamics ClimateChange Human Uses Fire Invasive Macrophytes Mining Temporary increases in nutrient inputs ; postfire landslides and debris flows Temperature Precipitation Infrastructure Permafrost thaw Outcompete native aquatic and emergent vegetation Lake drying in summer decreasing connectivity; expanded ice-free season allow for early wildlife use (birds and fish); changes in thermal regimes Permafrost Direct destruction of lake habitat Decrease in lake area; lake drainage; increase in methane emissions Lake area increase through increased precipitation; increased winter habitat for aquatic species Connected Lakes ChangeAgents Drivers CE

26. Increased potential for establishment of invasive macrophytes and changing fire dynamics ClimateChange Human Uses Fire Invasive Macrophytes Mining Outcompete native aquatic and emergent vegetation; faster growing vegetation overtaking lake area Temporary increases in nutrient inputs; postfirelandslides and debris flows Temperature Precipitation Direct destruction of lake habitat Infrastructure Permafrost thaw Lake area increase through increased precipitation; increased winter habitat for aquatic species Lake drying in summer decreasing lake area; expanded ice-free season allow for early wildlife use (birds and fish); changes in thermal regimes Permafrost Decrease in lake area; lake drainage; increase in methane emissions Disconnected Lakes ChangeAgents Drivers CE

27. Increased potential for establishment of invasive macrophytes and changing fire dynamics ClimateChange Human Uses Fire Invasive Macrophytes Mining Temporary increases in nutrient inputs; post fire landslides and debris flows; increased channel disturbance; altered riparian vegetation and stream shade, temperature change regimes Outcompete native aquatic and emergent vegetation Temperature Precipitation Infrastructure Permafrost thaw Direct destruction of stream habitat, change in conductivity, reduced flow Altered hydrologies; increased channel disturbance from flooding; increased discharge and sediment transport; increase in winter precipitation will increase wildlife overwinter habitat Warming could increase extent of available habitats; lethal temperature limits for fish and other aquatic organisms ; change in thermal regimes Permafrost Increased sedimentation rates Streams ChangeAgents Drivers CE

28. Management Questions • How, where, and when could Essential Fish Habitat (EFH) be affected by predicted changes in climate? • Primarily a literature review. SNAP does not currently have models predicting changes in aquatic habitats, such as stream temperature or hydrologic regime Photo: USFWS

29. Management Questions • Where and how might mineral resource development affect fishery habitat? • From BSWI RMP: field validated information on historic and current mining sites and high, medium, and low mineral potential by sections • Other options include ARDF and permit data Photo: USFWS

30. Review • Please review and provide comments: • Distribution models for fish and habitats • Conceptual models and text descriptions for fish • Not yet final: • Northern pike distribution model • Conceptual models and text descriptions for habitats • Contact: Rebecca Shaftel • rsshaftel@uaa.alaska.edu, 907-786-4965 Photo: USFWS