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Task overview

Task overview. Katja Buchta ( M.Sc .). Research question. How do UMTs develop according to urban growth models ? For now : focus on Dar es Salaam (DSM). Background. 2010: 3,349,000. Source: United Nations , Department of Economic and Social Affairs .

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Task overview

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  1. Task overview Katja Buchta (M.Sc.)

  2. Research question • How do UMTs developaccordingto urban growthmodels? • Fornow: focus on Dar es Salaam (DSM)

  3. Background 2010: 3,349,000 Source: United Nations, Department ofEconomicandSocialAffairs. World UrbanizationProspects 2009

  4. Background • Estimatesforcurrentpopulationin informal settlementsvarybetween 70 – 80%. • Hill & Lindner (2010): Modelling informal urban growthunder rapid urbanisation in DSM.  useresultsas a basisforanalysingthe UMT development

  5. The model • 2 different scenarios (Hill & Lindner 2010): • „Baseline scenario“: extrapolatingthedynamicsbased on pastconditionsandbehaviour. • „Scenario IV“: thejointimplementationof 3 infrastructureprojects: I) establishmentof a bus rapid transit (BRT) system, II) constructionof a new ring road, III) Kigamboni Bridge construction. Usedclasses: plannedresidential, informal residential, other urban, vacant / agriculture (basis: 100 x 100m cells)

  6. Baseline scenario (2022) Scenario IV (2022) Combinedimplementationof 3 infra-structureprojects. Kigamboniareaas a potential hotspot of urban growth Urban developmentwithouttheinfluenceofanystrategicplanningmeasures.  Rapid expansionofthe urban fringes towardstheperiphery. Source: Hill & Lindner, 2010

  7. Approach • Combine UMTs (2008) withscenarios (2022) • Fishnetof 100 x 100m cells • allocate UMTs (2008) • Analyse changeof UMTs (2008) forthe 2 scenarios in 2022: • Which UMTs would „disappear“ togivewayforsettlementareas? • Evaluatethechange in respecttogreeninfrastructure

  8. Thankyou!

  9. References • Hill, A. & C. Lindner (2010): Modelling informal urban growthunder rapid urbanisation. A CA-based land-usesimulationmodelforthecityof Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. • United Nations, Department ofEconomicandSocialAffairs. World UrbanizationProspects2009 (http://esa.un.org/wup2009/unup/p2k0data.asp)

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