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Recent Floods in Bulgaria: Information and Forecasting Services

Learn about the hydro-meteorological conditions in Bulgaria, the existing observation network, extreme hydrological events, and the floods in 2005. Discover the functionality of the hydromt system and the importance of reliable forecasting. Find out about prevention measures and how to adapt to the changing climate.

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Recent Floods in Bulgaria: Information and Forecasting Services

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  1. НАЦИОНАЛЕН ИНСТИТУТ ПО МЕТЕОРОЛОГИЯ И ХИДРОЛОГИЯ NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY Българска Академия на Науките Bulgarian Academy of Science бул. Цариградско шосе N 66 66 Tzarigradsko Shosee boul София 1184 1184 Sofia, BULGARIA тел. 9753986, тх. 22490 rthsf bg tel. +3592 9753986, tx.22490 rthsf bg факс 9884494,9880380 fax. +3592 9884494, 9880380 • Recent Floods in Bulgaria. Information and Forecasting services • Dobri Dimitrov • Hydro-meteorological conditions in Bulgaria • Hydro-meteorological observation network • Extreme hydrological events, changing climate • The floods in 2005 • Existing and desirable functionality of hydromt system • Some conclusions

  2. Hydro-meteorologicalconditions in Bulgaria • Three general zones: • Northern Bulgaria is on average more then one degree colder and receives annually about 190 mm precipitation more than • Southern Bulgaria, • Black Sea is too small to be a primary influencing factor of the country's weather; it only affects a narrow zone along the sea cost

  3. Hydro-meteorological observation network

  4. Extreme hydrological events • Severe draughts and floods: • Severe draughts came Bulgaria in early 90s • Unusual floods struck large parts of the Bulgarian river basins in 2005

  5. Changing climate causing: • The annual distribution of precipitation and flow rates is changing • The analysis of the cumulative probability distribution of annual maximums of daily precipitation totals shows dramatic irregularities

  6. The floods in 2005 14-28.02.2005 Snow coverage - 15.20 cm, up to50cm, sstormy wind - 30 m/s, rainfall 80-150 mm/day. Water level raise:15 – 16.02 at Arda 100-300 cm, Yantra and Kamchia 200-400 cm;Overflow of Ivaylovgrad dam about 800 m3/s. Big flood in Turkey. 25-30.05, 06-08.06.2005 Convergent zone between high pressure field and Maloasian cyclone with a high index of fluctuation and the cyclone “Iskar” – south of the Alps, forming at noon and evening every day massive convective systems.Frequent intensive precipitation 50-180 mm, daily. The soils became oversaturated in large areas hazardous floods in Sofia region.

  7. 01-04.07.2005 Cyclone “Targovishte” from the northwest, cold front, convective systems - torrential rainfalls. Pathways generated by different mechanisms - overlapping. Daily rainfall up to 250 mm. For the period between 2-14 July in the basins of Osam and Yantra rivers rose more than 8 m. 04-08.08.2005 The most devastating cyclone “Ihtiman”,relatively static front line with intensive rainfalls. Convection magnified by the relief.For the period precipitation amount over the Marica river basin is between 150-350 mm, daily maximums at Ihtiman - 230mm 14-16.09, 18-23.09.2005 In the basins of river Vit and Osum the precipitation was between 80-200 l/m2, During the period along riverYantra - 150-260 l/m2, on20.09 at Chernozemen – 288 l/m2. At Shabla station Black Sea coast more than 360 mm for one week.

  8. An example of ALADIN forecast 5-8 august 2005 Observed precipitation

  9. Semi quantitative 36 hours forecast of precipitation and other meteorological parameters Qualitative weekly forecast Indicative hydrological forecasting National level hydro-meteorological data collection and archiving Regional telecommunication centre SE Europe Regional hydro-meteorological education centre Reliability of the forecast. The lead time of the forecast, for the precipitation 10-15 days is possible if Bulgaria is a member of ECMWF. Better regionalisation of the forecast, more quantitative parameters. Operational hydrological modelling and forecasting at sensitive river basins. Existing and desirable functionality of hydromt system :Existing:Improvements needed

  10. Some conclusions The hydrological extremes observed during the last two decades in Bulgaria are likely related to the changing climate.A range of prevention measures is required like:- improvement of information systems, diagnostic and forecasting services;- drafting and implementing of an adaptation strategy of various economic sectors to the changing climate. Thank you! Visit our Internet pages www.meteo.bg, www.weather.bg, www.hydro.bg

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