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Global Warming brings Climate Change

Global Warming brings Climate Change. The Physics & Why Deniers Deny Reality. Bob Powell, Ph.D. physics, MBA exponentialimprovement.com. Land-Ocean Temperature Anomaly 2016. NASA: It’s Warming Much Faster … but Denial Persists. ~ position 2016.

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Global Warming brings Climate Change

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  1. Global Warming brings Climate Change The Physics & Why Deniers Deny Reality Bob Powell, Ph.D. physics, MBAexponentialimprovement.com

  2. Land-Ocean Temperature Anomaly 2016

  3. NASA: It’s Warming Much Faster… but Denial Persists ~ position 2016 • NASA: Global temperature has climbed "roughly ten times faster than the average rate of ice-age-recovery warming." O NASA projects 20X faster warming in future Graph from 2008

  4. We Underestimate the ProblemWe Humans are Poor at Estimating Exponential Growth • This graph shows how poor we humans are at realizing the enormous speed of exponential growth. • Estimates not even close! Reality What People Estimate

  5. Paris Accord Objection • Paris Accord “wasn’t a good deal” for the U.S.Because China!!! • China’s pollution is our pollution (smog & CO2) • Try going to a Big Box store to buy something not from China. Just try. • Multinational Corporations didn’t cutCO2 and other pollution; they exported it.

  6. Denialist Objection:CO2 & Temps have been higher in the past • But they don’t talk about … • How many species went extinct. • What sea level was.

  7. The Propaganda Seems Endless • Skeptical Science website http://www.skepticalscience.com/… rebuts global warming misinformation. • Bypass the propaganda • Look at the System Structure … the Physics of the System • What is Systems Structure?

  8. System Dynamics Perspectiveon Leadership Understand Structure Understand Behavior Design Policy

  9. Structure: Stocks & Flows Reality has two kinds of variables: • Stocks (e.g., the water in a lake) • Flows (e.g., the flows into & out of a lake) Nature does integral calculus! "Nature laughs at the difficulties of integration.” Pierre-Simon de Laplace

  10. Economic Development

  11. The Tangle of Growth Feedbacks

  12. Carbon Cycle & Global Temperature Stock & Flow Diagram “Carbon Bathtub” Sun Burn Carbon From: Cloudy Skies: Assessing Public Understanding of Global Warmingby John D. Sterman and Linda Booth Sweeney, System Dynamics Review, 18(2) 2002

  13. The "Carbon Bathtub"http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/big-idea/05/carbon-bathGraphic: Nigel Holmes. Sources: John Sterman, Director, MIT System Dynamics Group; David Archer, University of Chicago; Global Carbon Project FAUCET(HUMAN EMISSIONS) DRAIN(CARBON SINKS DRAIN(CARBON SINKS DRAIN(CARBON SINKS) BATHTUB(ATMOSPHERE)

  14. How does CO2 cause warming? CO2 absorbs some of the heat radiation coming off Earth's sunbaked surface and reradiates it back downward.

  15. How do we cause CO2 emissions? Faucet:Mostly from burning fossil fuels.

  16. Where does our CO2 go? Drain:Plants, soil, ocean, atmosphere Humans emit 2X as much as is absorbed. We must cut emissions in 1/2, not just stop increasing! 45% remains in atmosphere 30% absorbed by plants & soils 25% absorbed by oceans (turning acidic) <1% reabsorbed by sediments & rocks NOT GOOD!

  17. How much CO2 is too much? In the tub: No one is sure. Some scientists think we need to reduce the CO2 level back down to 350 ppmto avoid serious climate impacts. 450 ppm -- projectedbefore mid-century 409 ppm – mid-2017386 ppm -- 2008 avg 299 ppm -- highest ice core reading (333,000 yrs ago) 271 ppm – preindustrial level

  18. Global WarmingPhysics of the System Fact • Fact: Humans are warming the planet • Means to Life on Earth: Warmer planet and oceans with more water in the atmosphere - stronger hurricanes and tornadoes, - more rain in rainstorms -- severe flooding, - more snow in snowstorms - hotter means drought and wildfires.

  19. Science: Settled or Unsettled? • Exact modeling of past and future CO2 levels and average global temperature is enormously complicated … • … that modeling is NOT “settled”… there are uncertainties … • But the physics is “settled” … just as Gravity is “settled”. • There is NO doubt about Global Warming. • Or that Humans are Causing it. • It is NOT a HOAX. That’s “Settled”!

  20. This is How We Should Feel:

  21. I DO! I know there’s a big problemSolar on My Roof

  22. Why Deniers Deny - 1 • Human Cognitive Ability: Dealing withDynamic Complexity, an inability of humans to deal with dynamically complex systems: systems with multiple feedbacks and long delays. Common sense fails us in the face of dynamic complexity."Common sense is a bundle of prejudices we develop before the age of 18." Albert Einstein • “Religious” faith in "free market" capitalismthat maintains that the "free market" will address all problems and government interference only makes things worse. Denial of cost redistribution (socialism) from negative externalities. • "My Team" vs "Your Team" tribalismthat overcomes reason. If someone goes against the Team, it's seen as undermining the team's success. Can’t be disloyal to the tribe. How Tribalism Overrules Reason, and Makes Risky Times More Dangerous by DAVID ROPEIK

  23. Why Deniers Deny - 2 • Black propaganda from the likes of theRepublican Party, Fox News and Glenn Beck denying the problem because they get campaign bribes or profit from denialism.  Example: Millions of Americans get information about climate science from the Fox News Channel, yet a 2012 UCS snapshot analysis found that representations of climate science on Fox News Channel were misleading 93 percent of the time. • Black propaganda from Fossil fuel corporations. Climate Denialism’s Star Scientist Exposed, Paid $1.2M By Oil Companies To Deliver Friendly Results, 2/22/15. The New York Times summarizes the findings. Scientists, with extensive political connections, are paid to deny well-established scientific knowledge, mislead the public, and sow doubt.

  24. Why Deniers Deny - 3 • Religious faith that "God's in charge"and humans aren't more powerful than God so we can't be responsible. The "biblically inspired" Sen James Inhofe (R-OK) said, "... God's still up there. The arrogance of people to think that we, human beings, would be able to change what He is doing in the climate is to me outrageous." • Anti-intellectualism:Antipathy against expertise and education. It’s a view based on radical simplicity … does not apply in dynamically-complex systems.See Anti-Intellectualism in American Life by Richard Hofstadter.

  25. This is Serious, We must act: NOW!

  26. Ignoring this Threat is Terrorism • Denial makes the Republican Party the most dangerous organization in human history. • It’s all in for racing over the Global Warming cliff. • It’s malevolence on a planetary scale. • No, I'm not exaggerating. • Some refer to those who recognize the problem as being "Cassandras” … thinking that means being pessimistic for no good reason. • But “Cassandra was correct!”

  27. The End I hope not.

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