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Presentation to Hershey Airport Conference March 7, 2007 Patrick Sullivan, P.E. APP-400

Presentation to Hershey Airport Conference March 7, 2007 Patrick Sullivan, P.E. APP-400 FAA National Planning and Environmental Division. AVIATION FORECASTS AND AIRPORT DEVELOPMENT. AIRPORT SPONSOR FORECASTS.

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Presentation to Hershey Airport Conference March 7, 2007 Patrick Sullivan, P.E. APP-400

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  1. Presentation to Hershey Airport Conference March 7, 2007 Patrick Sullivan, P.E. APP-400 FAA National Planning and Environmental Division AVIATION FORECASTS AND AIRPORT DEVELOPMENT

  2. AIRPORT SPONSOR FORECASTS • Airport sponsors generate aviation forecasts (local forecasts) for use in defining scope and timing of airport development

  3. WHY DOES FAA CARE ABOUT AIRPORT SPONSOR FORECASTS? • FAA uses sponsor forecasts in its decision making, including: • Noise, air quality, airfield modeling, access analyses in an EA or EIS • Airfield modeling, delay and capacity analyses in BCA • AIP and PFC approvals for; airfield, terminal and access improvements are based on demonstrated demand

  4. WHAT IS A GOOD FORECAST? • One with: • Accurate baseline data • Based on realistic assumptions • Using appropriate methodologies • Specifying the information and analysis used

  5. BASELINE DATA • What: Historic operations and enplanements • Accurate baseline data is available for towered airports, air carrier enplanements and operations that file a flight plan (ETMS) • TAF often “flatlines” forecasts in cases of uncertain baseline data • Baseline data can be improved through aircraft counting programs-AIP eligible • State DOT and MPO can do counting

  6. METHODOLOGIES/ ASSUMPTIONS • Guidance on how to prepare an aviation forecast is contained in Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport, July 2001. See:http://www.faa.gov/data_statistics/aviation_data_statistics • Forecast should be based on latest available data • Specify nature and use of methodologies • Regression analysis preferred, if correlated • Always support assumptions (Load factor, fleet mix, seats/aircraft)

  7. PLANNING JUSTIFICATION FOR CRITICAL AIRCRAFT • Prefer airline/user support letters or contracts for new service, based aircraft or change in facility use (i.e. new flight school) • Letters should specify the following and be signed by authorized official: • Current constraints (payload/stage) • Projected number of operations by aircraft • Stage length of projected operations • Date service is expected to start • Airfield and landside facilities needed

  8. TAF UPDATES AND EIS PLANNING DATA: COMMERCIAL OPERATIONS • TAF forecasts short term (2 year) commercial operations based on recent history and OAG • TAF Long term forecast based on regression analysis (yield and personal income) • Sponsor forecast should be approved as close to EIS/EA Notice of Intent as possible using current numbers and analysis • Even at this, long term nature of environmental process can result in variance with TAF • Examine issue in 2007-Forecast averaging

  9. FAA REVIEWS OF AIRPORT SPONSOR FORECASTS • Forecast approval always rests with ADO/regional office • Forecasts that require FAA HQ review: • Those not consistent with the TAF • Forecasts for complex projects with potential for controversy, even if the forecast is consistent with the TAF

  10. WHAT DOES FAA LOOK FOR IN REVIEW OF SPONSOR FORECAST? • Realistic assumptions • Appropriate forecast methodologies • Report contains information and analysis used • Forecasts are consistent with TAF

  11. CONSISTENCY OF SPONSOR FORECAST AND TAF Forecasts consistent if they differ less than 10 percent in 5-year period and 15 percent in 10-year period • Total operations • Total enplanements • Based aircraft

  12. MATERIAL NEEDED FOR FAA REVIEW OF AIRPORT SPONSOR FORECAST • Side-by-side comparison: see templates in “Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport.” • Enplanement, activity and based aircraft levels (baseline and trends) • Assumptions (i.e. load factors, average seats, Operations per based aircraft) • Forecast methodologies (i.e. regression)

  13. ALTERNATIVE ANALYSIS IN PLANNING • In master plan, identify alternatives that FAA/sponsor can do to meet need • MP not intended to establish a single alternative for NEPA evaluation, but may establish sponsor’s preferred alternative • Conduct airspace reviews (NRA) to see if alternatives work • Dismiss and document alternatives that do not planning need, or are not feasible/reasonable

  14. BEST PRACTICES FOR SURFACE ACCESS TO AIRPORTS Guidance available at: http://www.faa.gov/airports_airtraffic/airports/resources/publications/reports/media/bulletin_1_surface_access_best_practices.pdf

  15. BEST PRACTICES SURFACE ACCESS TO AIRPORTS • The following topics discussed in the best practice document: • Use of PFC, AIP and airport revenue for ground access projects • Coordination of airport access needs with surface transportation agencies • Research projects, surface access planning

  16. CONTACT • Patrick J. Sullivan, P.E. Phone: 202-267-3707 E-mail: patrick.sullivan@faa.gov

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