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NGA-East Tentative Plan

NGA-East Tentative Plan. March 7, 2008. Brainstorming Technical Workshop in 2007. To compile a list of key technical issues and R&D projects to be addressed in the course of NGA-East The list was finalized through iterations

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NGA-East Tentative Plan

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  1. NGA-East Tentative Plan March 7, 2008

  2. Brainstorming Technical Workshop in 2007 • To compile a list of key technical issues and R&D projects to be addressed in the course of NGA-East • The list was finalized through iterations • Consensus was to develop Next Generation Models rather than updating PSHA implementation of the existing models • Very short summary of topics…

  3. Supporting R&D Topics for NGA-East: 1 • Database: Compile a database of recorded motions from CEUS and other Stable Continental Regions (SCR) • Data will be processed uniformly, reviewed, and QA’d • PGA, PGV, PGD, and response spectra for periods 0.01 to 10 sec

  4. Database (cont’d) • Database metadata should include: • Moment magnitude for all EQs • Rupture, JB, epicental and hypocentral distances • Vs30 and basin/sediment depth estimates at recording stations • … • In order to save time, for short term, a working group on database is formed

  5. Topic 2 • Source Rupture Characterization: • Source parameter database: Rupture area, moment, … • Compare source characteristics of EQs in magnitude range of 4-5 from WUS to CEUS: Any difference? Why? • …

  6. Topic 3 • Source-Site Path: • Geometrical spreading effects: What is the physical cause for a geometrical spreading steeper than 1/R? • Are there differences for geometrical spreading between WUS and CEUS? • …

  7. Topic 4 • Site Effects: • Define a reference site condition to use in the development of the attenuation models for CEUS • Are site-response effects transferable from WUS to CEUS? • …

  8. Topic 5 • Constraints on Attenuation Models: • Develop and use MMI distributions for CEUS and other SCR earthquakes to constrain and check spectral levels for large magnitudes • Collect and analyze liquefaction data to constrain predicted spectral ordinates • …

  9. Topic 6 • Ground Motion (GM) Simulation • Calibrate & validate GM simulation models using CEUS and other SCR data • Use calibrated and validated simulation models to generate GMs to be used by attenuation modelers (for a range of magnitude, distances, …) • …

  10. Topic 7 • Modeling Issues for Attenuation • Next generation attenuation models for CEUS should be applicable to magnitude 4-8, distances of 500km • Horizontal and Vertical components • Demonstrate agreement of new models with observed data in CEUS and other SCRs • Develop aleatory uncertainty models for CEUS (function of magnitude, distance, …)

  11. Topic 8 • Implementation of Attenuation Models for PSHA • Develop an epistemic uncertainty model • Determine weights to be assigned to the new attenuation models • …

  12. Topic 9 • Other Related (but out of scope) Project • Develop VS30 and depth to bedrock maps for CEUS

  13. Duration & Budget • Final models ready to be reviewed by various stakeholders (including USGS): • In Five years • One year to review, collect comments, adopt for various applications (including National Seismic Hazard Maps) • Estimated overall budget: $4.4M (including database, supporting R&D projects, attenuation models,…)

  14. Timeline

  15. Fully Transparent Process • During the course of NGA-East program, the database developers, attenuation modelers, researchers, stakeholders and end-users of models will all be involved in a multi-disciplinary and fully transparent process

  16. Fully Transparent Process • The compiled database along with its documentations will be available to the public via an NGA-East web site • The reports on the supporting research projects will be also available to the public

  17. Fully Transparent Process • For each attenuation model, there will be draft and final reports to document modeling development, assumptions, derivations, etc. • Reports will be electronically available to the public free of charge

  18. We would like to invite you to join NGA-East • As a co-sponsor: • Various organizations will benefit from NGA-East: • NRC, USGS, DOE, NEHRP, other Federal Agencies,…private industry, utilities,… • Be part of Joint Management Committee (JMC) to direct the program • Be involved in various technical activities: • Technical working groups; Workshops • Supporting R&D projects

  19. Discussions…

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