Learning to Achieve Results Market Assistance Programme , Kenya

1. Learning to Achieve ResultsMarket Assistance Programme, Kenya Michael Field Mike.Field@adamsmithinternational.com October 2012

2. B. EARLY MAJORITY D. SOLUTION-SEEKING BREADTH A. EARLY ADOPTERS C. ADAPTATION DEPTH What Results Are We Looking For?

3. Market System Compared to Traditional Programme Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 High-level Impact Time Project Lifetime Market systems project impact profile Direct intervention impact profile

4. What I Need to Track Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 How the change process happened is a better predictor of future results High-level Impact Time Project Lifetime Market systems project impact profile Direct intervention impact profile

5. Learning Framework

6. Theory of Change General definition: Theories of Change posit the underlying causes that are driving poor performance and resulting limited benefits accruing to the poor. Theories of Change then provide an overview of the systemic change needed to improve performance, with a specific focus on how the poor will benefit from improved performance.

7. Cotton Theory of Change Three interconnected systemic weaknesses that are driving poor performance within the cotton market system would need to change Enabling environment that is more transparent, evidence driven and participatory Supply chain management models that are more performance driven Retail inputs management models that are more customer oriented and solution driven

8. Cotton Results Chains Shift CODA Strategy Upgrade capacity to deliver Evidence Driven Shared Decision Making Greater Alignment of Market Incentives that Drives Improved Performance Throughout the Market System Shift Ginners Supply Chain Strategy Upgrade capacity to deliver Performance Based Incentives Drive Behaviour Shift Retail Inputs Strategy Upgrade capacity to deliver Customer Oriented Operational Focus

9. Pathway of Change = Results Entry Trial & pilot Copying & crowding-in Exit Number & types of actors engaged Performance – capacity and practice Rules and incentives Relationships – core/interconnected Ownership of change process BREADTH Number & types of functions & level of adaptation DEPTH

10. Pathway of Change = Results MOMENTUM towards Pro-Poor Growth Entry Trial & pilot Copying & crowding-in Exit Number & types of actors engaged Performance – capacity and practice Rules and incentives Relationships – core/interconnected Ownership of change process BREADTH Solution Seeking Number & types of functions & level of adaptation DEPTH Multi-faceted LEVERAGED Interventions

11. Learning Process Collective Learning Drives Follow-on Facilitation Activities Project Management and Staff Assess Against Results Chains Market Not Working for the Poor Observations Market Working for the Poor Behaviors TIME

12. Learning Process • M&E and Facilitation Teams Integrated – Knowledge Management: • Quarterly team reviews against results chain – rolling portfolio review • Team and project exchanges to constantly test hypothesis of results chain • Managerial practices that create an appropriate operating culture that learns and adapts • Tacit knowledge capture • Explicit knowledge capture Collective Learning Drives Follow-on Facilitation Activities Project Management and Staff Assess Against Results Chains Market Not Working for the Poor Observations Market Working for the Poor Behaviors TIME

13. Learning Cycle Collective Learning Drives Follow-on Facilitation Activities Project Management and Staff Assess Against Results Chains Adjusted Adjusted Market Not Working for the Poor Facilitation Activities Facilitation Activities Observed Behaviors Behaviors Behaviors Market Working for the Poor TIME

14. Key Take Away Messages • Results = System Capacity To Solution Seek = Sustainability • The overall strategy grounded in the theory of change • The results chains provide the learning framework and drive which indicators are key – behaviour change, process indicators that show: • Ownership of change processes, i.e., adaptation • Practice and capacity especially around evidence seeking for decision making • Changes in rules and relationships that drive solution seeking behaviours • The pace of the learning cycle is critical and depends on management practices/operating culture that values evidence and learning