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A Story of Two Processes

A Story of Two Processes. It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness…. The Question. Why, despite over 30 years of prodigious effort, has the human system failed to solve the environmental sustainability problem?.

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A Story of Two Processes

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  1. A Story of Two Processes • It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, • it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness….

  2. The Question • Why, despite over 30 years of prodigious effort, has the human system failed to solve the environmental sustainability problem? • Difficult social problems historically take a long time to solve: • Women’s suffrage problem • Slavery problem • Divine right of kings problem • Racial discrimination problem • The dangers of smoking tobacco • The recurring war in Europe problem

  3. The Question • Why, despite over 30 years of prodigious effort, has the human system failed to solve the environmental sustainability problem? Kyoto Protocol Brundtland Report UN Earth Summit Limits to Growth Silent Spring

  4. The Question • Why, despite over 30 years of prodigious effort, has the human system failed to solve the environmental sustainability problem? “The growth rate of emissions was 3.5% per year for the period of 2000-2007, an almost four fold increase from 0.9% per year in 1990-1999. The actual emissions growth rate for 2000-2007 exceeded the highest forecast growth rates for the decade 2000-2010 in the emissions scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC-SRES). This makes current trends in emissions higher than the worst case IPCC-SRES scenario.” (Source: www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/07/index.htm .) “Modern environmentalism is no longer capable of dealing with the world's most serious ecological crisis.” (Source: Shellenberger, Michael and Nordhaus, Ted. 2004. The Death of Environmentalism.)

  5. The Question • Why, despite over 30 years of prodigious effort, has the human system failed to solve the environmental sustainability problem? A PossibleAnswer • The field been using the wrong problem solving process. • Examples of the right process: • Scientific Method • Project management processes like CPM and PERT • The Toyota Production System • The Capability Maturity Model, for software development • Countless training and problem solving processes

  6. What process are problem solvers currently using to solve the sustainability problem? • As we use the term, an activist is anyone actively working to change the behavior of a social system.

  7. The Process of Classic Activism problem symptoms causes causes Step 1. Identify the problem to be solved proper practices are not being followed causes causes causes C. People don’t want to follow the proper practices, even though they are fully aware of them and why they should logically follow them A. The proper practices are not yet known B. People don’t know about the proper practices or why they should practice them can be solved by can be solved by can be solved by Step 2. Find the proper practices Step 3. Tell people the truth about the problem and the proper practices Step 4. Exhort, inspire and bargain with people to get them to support the proper practices

  8. Examples of Classic ActivismOutcomes (1) The 11 problems are from the Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment study (SCOPE), whose results were summarized in the UNEP’s Global Environment Outlook 2000 on page 339. The problems are sorted in order of decreasing importance. These are approximately the top 11 components of the global environmental sustainability problem.

  9. Does Classic Activism have a flaw? • (Break to examine the tool of simulation modeling to answer the question) • Causal Loop Diagram • of Classic Activism

  10. Does Classic Activism have a flaw? • We hypothesize that Classic Activism contains these two critical flaws: • 1. It doesn’t consider systemic change resistance. • 2. It’s intuitive instead of analytical, so it tends to not find true root causes and the high leverage points needed to resolve them.

  11. Can we develop a better process that lacks these flaws? The System Improvement Process (SIP) What quality gate must a better process pass?

  12. The Six Principles • A complex system problem can be proactively, reliably, and fully solved only by resolving its root causes. • In problems where problem solvers are in the minority or lack governance of the system, root causes can be efficiently resolved only by pushing on their related high leverage points . • If analysis finds the correct root causes and high leverage points, solution implementation will be relatively easy. • The more difficult the problem, the more mature the process used to solve it must be. • Difficult problems are best decomposed into smaller subproblems, each designed to be an order of magnitude easier to solve. • Understanding complex social system behavior correctly and deeply requires modeling. Are these the right principles?

  13. SIP The four main steps of solving each subproblem The five substeps of system understanding The three subproblems of the main problem 1. Problem Definition A. Change Resistance B. Proper Coupling C. Model Drift 2. System Understanding D C A E B Find the high leverage points to make those loops go dominant. Find the low leverage points and symptomatic solutions. Find the root cause of why they are dominant. Find the immediate cause of the problem symptoms in terms of the system's dominant feedback loops. Find the feedback loops that should be dominant to resolve the root causes. ANALYSIS Spend about 80% of your time here. The problem solving battle is won or lost in this step, so take the time to get it right. 3. Solution Convergence 4. Implementation

  14. Analysis Results of SIP 2. System Understanding ANALYSIS This is where we’ve spent about 90% of our time.

  15. Actual Results of Classic Activism 1. Problem Definition Done by The Limits to Growth A. Change Resistance B. Proper Coupling C. Model Drift 2. System Understanding ? ? Dominant loops causing symptoms found by World3 model. ? ? ? ANALYSIS ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 3. Solution Convergence ? ? ? 4. Implementation ? ? ?

  16. How can we accelerate a change from Classic Activism • to a process that’s capable of solving • the sustainability problem? The Old and New Paradigms Classic Activism System Improvement Process An intuitive approach An analytical approach If that doesn’t work, exhort, inspire and bargain with people to get them to support the proper practices Decompose the problem into 3 subproblems: A. Change Resistance B. Proper Coupling C. Model Drift Tell the people the truth about the problem and the proper practices Execute the system understanding step using the 5 substeps and simulation modeling Use 4 main steps for each subproblem Find the proper practices Pushing on low leverage points Pushing on high leverage points Success on easy problems Failure on difficult problems Success on easy problems Success on difficult problems

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