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October 10th, 2011

The Decision to Scrap a Wind Turbine. Opportunity Cost, Timing and Policy. Johannes Mauritzen, johannes.mauritzen@nhh.no NHH Norwegian School of Economics, Bergen And Institute for Industrial Economics (IFN), Stockholm. October 10th, 2011. Data and Methodology.

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October 10th, 2011

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  1. The Decision to Scrap a Wind Turbine Opportunity Cost, Timing and Policy Johannes Mauritzen, johannes.mauritzen@nhh.noNHH Norwegian School of Economics, Bergen And Institute for Industrial Economics (IFN), Stockholm October 10th, 2011

  2. Data and Methodology • Main Data set from Danish Transimission Operator, Energinett • Date of Installation and ”Decomission” • Coordinates • Principality • Capacity, Tower Height, Rotor Diameter, Manufacturer • Duration Models • Kaplan Meier non-parametric estimation • Cox semi-parametric regression model • Identification • Semi-Instrumental Variables • Semi- (regression) discontinuity • Proportional Hazards Assumption

  3. Total Wind Power Capacity in Denmark

  4. Fornavn Etternavn, navn@nhh.no Total Wind Power Capacity in Denmark

  5. Tariff for Wind Power 16.05.11 Fornavn Etternavn, navn@nhh.no 5

  6. Scrapped Turbines per Month

  7. Fornavn Etternavn, navn@nhh.no Scrappage Policies • April 1st, 2001 – January 1st, 2004 • Retroactive to 1999 • Max capacity of 150 kW • Subsidy of .17 DKK/kWh • 3x scrapped value <100kW • 2x scrapped value >100, <150 • December 15th, 2004 • Max capacity of 450 kW • Subsidy of .12 DKK/kWh • 2x scrapped capacity • limited to 12,000 FLH, max of .48 DKK total tariff • February 21, 2008 – extra .08 DKK/kWh hour added

  8. Kaplan Meier Survivor Function Estimate

  9. Fornavn Etternavn, navn@nhh.no Kaplan Meier Survivor Function Estimate

  10. Kaplan-Meier Survival Estimates (100-200 kW)

  11. Kaplan-Meier Survival Estimates (400-500 kW)

  12. Fornavn Etternavn, navn@nhh.no Turbine Scrappage Hazard: Cox Regression

  13. Fornavn Etternavn, navn@nhh.no

  14. Turbine Scrappage Hazard: Cox Regression

  15. Turbine Efficiency Indicator

  16. Fornavn Etternavn, navn@nhh.no

  17. Fornavn Etternavn, navn@nhh.no

  18. Fornavn Etternavn, navn@nhh.no

  19. Conclusion and Discussion

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