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FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM. ” OPTIMAL CAPACITY MIX FOR 100%RES POWER SYSTEM ” Jyrki Leino Senior Manager, Power System Modelling. WÄRTSILÄ Energy. OUR PERSONNEL Approximately 5,400 professionals In over 140 locations In over 60 countries. Wärtsilä energy.

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FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

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  1. FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM ”OPTIMAL CAPACITY MIX FOR 100%RES POWER SYSTEM” Jyrki Leino Senior Manager, Power System Modelling FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

  2. WÄRTSILÄ Energy OUR PERSONNEL Approximately 5,400professionals In over 140locations In over 60 countries FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

  3. Wärtsilä energy Installed power plant capacity70 GW in 177 countries around the world 1854MW 6849MW Europe,output: 17.6 GW 1827MW 3771MW 1095MW 10 115MW Asia &Middle East,output: 29.2 GW 4889MW 5139MW Americas,output: 14 GW 2546MW 1111MW 9067MW Africa,output: 7.4 GW 8258MW Utilities 5472MW IPP’s (IndependentPower Producers) 1706MW 3370MW Industrials Municipalities, co-ops,Oil & Gas etc. 1216MW FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

  4. OVER 70 COUNTRY AND SYSTEM STUDIES MADE BY WÄRTSILÄ ALL OVER THE WORLD Wärtsilä PLEXOS modelling Activities PLEXOS USER SINCE 2010 = PLEXOS study made by Wärtsilä

  5. OUR VISIONTOWARDS A 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY FUTURE FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

  6. RES prices Price for renewable energy has reached a tipping point – all across the worldPrices of renewables continue to drop FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

  7. 100%RES Power System Challenges and opportunities FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

  8. Main energy sources in a 100% renewable energy world A high renewable world will require massive amountsof solar, wind and energy storage PV willbecomethe main energysource in the Sun Beltwith22 TWpglobalcapacityfor thepowersector Solar PV basedsystem Windturbinesbasedsystem Hydro powerbasedsystem Technologies mix basedsystem Source: Lappeenranta University of Technology FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

  9. Increasing role of flexibility SEASONAL The 100% renewable energy system requires multiple forms of flexibility WEEKLY Fuel as a form of energy storageto balance seasonal variation. DAILY Longer duration energy balance and system reliability is ensuredby Hydro, Batteries and Flexible thermal with Power to Gas Daily variations in generation are handled mainly by Batteries or Hydro FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

  10. ROLE OF TECHNOLOGIES IN THE ENERGY TRANSITION RES 0%”Good old days” RES 20%Tipping point RES 50-80%Renewables as baseload RES 100%Final push Renewable Energy – wind and solar Inflexible Generation Flexible Generation Energy Storage Today’s situation in many country Inflexible generation struggles heavily Case study Optimal mix

  11. Optimal 100%RES power system? Case study and results FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

  12. 100%RES SYSTEM CASE STUDY Resources RES 100% Power System ~95% Powerto Gas Round tripefficiency ~85-90% Biomass ~60% ~95% Battery Hydro Round tripefficiency Demand Storage (LNG) Solar PV ~30% Wind ~99% Flexiblethermal Curtailedenergy Geothermal ~50% % = Efficiency % In this study Power-to-X (e.g. food, fuel, textiles...) FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

  13. 100%RES system modelling case Generic greenfield PLEXOS LT model for one year (2030) with hourly dispatch Profiles Senegal Germany Scenarios for 100%RES Solar + Battery Solar + Wind + Battery Solar + Wind + Battery + P2G with flexible thermal • System candidates • Solar and Wind • Batteries • P2G with Flexible thermal FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

  14. POWER to Gas modelling – plexos setup Gas consumption (G2P) Gas production (P2G) P2G converter act as an anti-generator  running as a load Every time P2G converter runs gas is produced in Gas Field GasNode is linked to Fuel which is linked to Generator Linked to Gas Field (P2G) via Constraint P2G link FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

  15. Case study: Capacities GER SEN Thermal capacity factor ~12% Highly seasonal Solar makes no sense without seasonal storage Solar is dominant Wind is dominant FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

  16. Case study: Energy + Curtailment + Cost SEN GER FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

  17. Case study: Dispatch - Senegal FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

  18. Case study: Dispatch - Germany FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

  19. Optimal ENERGY ONly 100%RES power systems x1 x2,5 x2,5 Demand x1,2 In 2030 100%RES system LCOE (USD/MWh)75 x0,7 x0,4 FUNDAMENTALS OF 100%RES POWER SYSTEM

  20. THANK you Jyrki Leino Senior Manager, Power System Modelling

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