Climate Change Implications to the Sierra Nevada and the Central Valley

1. Climate Change Implications to the Sierra Nevada and the Central Valley Ryan Lucas Sierra Nevada Research Institute UC Merced rlucas@ucmerced.edu

2. Greenhouse Effect Temperature Forecast Impacts Water/Snowpack Wildfire Vegetation Sea Level Summary Outline

3. Increased concentration of greenhouse gasses in the earth’s atmosphere CO2 – burning of fossil fuels H2O – natural, increase from melting of ice N2O – manure breakdown CH4 – landfills, manure breakdown Greenhouse Effect

4. Greenhouse Effect A fraction of the long wave radiation escapes from the atmosphere; greenhouse gases absorb the remaining long wave radiation and emit long wave radiation in all directions. Incoming Solar Radiation Increase of greenhouse gases results in more long wave radiation absorbed and re-emitted and warmer global surface temperatures. Incoming Solar Radiation is absorbed by Earth’s surface. Surface emits long wave radiation to atmosphere

6. Source: Bales et al 2006

7. Source: Stewart et al 2005

8. Early onset of spring Early stream flow Loss of reservoir and groundwater storage Loss of hydroelectric generated power Large winter storms produce rain Loss of storage in snow pack Induction of floods, rain on snow events Longer, drier summers Crop and stock stresses Water Impacts

9. Wildfires Source: Westerling 2006

10. Source: Westerling et al 2006

11. More frequent wildfires More intense/larger wildfires Decrease in Central Valley air quality Loss of vegetation Loss of wildlife habitat Release of CO2 to atmosphere Fire Impacts

12. Vegetation Source: Linehan et al 2006

13. Vegetation Source: Linehan et al 2006

14. Potential migration of plant species Potential loss of plant species. Migration and/or loss of plant species may lead to migration and/or loss of animal species. Vegetation Impacts

15. Potential for 1-3 feet sea level rise by the end of the century (Hanak and Lund 2008) Alter salinity, depth, and flood potential in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Sea Level

16. Reduction in water supply Major implications for agricultural and urban communities Impacts to water cycle affects species habitats (i.e. early spring stream pulse effects in salmonid fish) Reduced capacity for hydroelectric power production Decreased air quality Major implications for public health sector Changes to “natural” habitats Major implications on indigenous plant and animal species Sea level rise major effects on Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta, plants and aquatic species Impacts to Sierra Nevada and the Central Valley

17. Thank You!