Peak Oil: What is it? When will it happen? What will it mean?

1. Peak Oil: What is it? When will it happen? What will it mean?

2. Modern World Depends on Fossil Fuels • Rise of Fossil Fuel Economy in 200 years • Before, Low & Renewable Energy from: • Wood (& Biomass) burning • Human power • Animal power • Small amounts wind and water • Coal – 200 years • Oil – 100 years • Gas – 50 years

3. Dependency on Fossil Fuels Tradable Energy Fossil Fuels 85% Oil: 40% Coal: 25% Gas: 20% Nuclear: 7% Hydro: 7% Renewables: 1% Transport: 90% Oil

4. Dependency on Fossil Fuels • Food – We ‘Eat Oil’ • Modern Agriculture high fossil fuel inputs • Irrigation • Fertilisers • Pesticides • Machinery • Treatment • Transport • Many foods have more energy inputs than produce

5. Dependency on Fossil Fuels • Transport • Goods shipped around the world • Food miles • 90% Oil • Buildings • Embodied energy • Heating, cooling & lighting • Lifts • Manufacture • Plastics: from oil

6. All Fossil Fuels are Finite Non-Renewable Use once and gone Fossil Fuels will run out Or Become not worth extracting Cost and Energy balance Negative When?

7. Peak Oil Problems begin long before run out Peak Oil is high point of production When production begins to decline Usually near half way point of reserve Also lag between peak of discovery and peak extraction Notes: Fluctuations in trends of discovery and production influenced by markets, war, etc Graphs from Colin Campbell

8. Peak Oil: What is it? When will it happen? What will it mean?

9. Peak Oil • Globally Conventional Oil near to Peak • Reaching the Peak, rather than last few drops, will begin a crisis • Finds • World using 4x more oil than discovering • Discoveries have declined for 40 years • New Super Fields unlikely • Explored most of the world • Extraction • Consensus that Peak Oil is in next decade • Some suggest Peak already reached

11. Extending Supply • Natural Gas (& Natural Gas Liquids) • Non-conventional Oil • Heavy Oil: Tar Sands, Shale oil, etc • Deep Sea Oil • Arctic • All • take more energy to produce • cost more • do more environmental damage • Delay Peak for a decade

13. Impacts If present rate of extraction continues, Virtually exhausted in 30-40 years More likely,as resources become more difficult to extract Slow decline Yet rate of use increasing ~3%/year Growth of transport Newly industrialised countries, China & India

14. Impacts Gap between Supply & Demand Classical economics assume that higher price leads to an increase in supply No Supply to Increase Price Increase & Instability Conflict for oil Middle East & Central Asia New Wars Has it started? Hit World Trade World Depression

15. Response • Nuclear • Blair already announce • Nuclear waste • Risk of Accident • Cost • Also • If global shift, uranium only last 10-20 years • CO2 release if include mine and process

16. Response • Coal • If main replacement last 100 years • Major CO2 • Coal & Nuclear • Both • Only short-term • Environmental damage • Add to Climate Change

17. Response • Hydrogen • Espoused by US government • Hydrogen not an available fuel, not a source of energy • Needs to be made – takes energy to make • Hydrogen an energy carrier • Only viable if energy source is renewable

18. Response • Renewables • PV, solar thermal electricity, wind, water, tide, wave, solar heat, heat pumps and biomass • Starved of investment • Potentially could provide energy • Huge change in energy production, supply and use • Restructure of society • Alongside • Energy efficiency

19. Peak Oil End of an Era Profound Choices Depression, Conflict, Dark Ages or Renewable, Efficient, Sustainable

20. Peak Oil Sources Peak Oil: http://www.peakoil.net/ Depletion Scotland: http://www.depletion-scotland.org.uk/ The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre: http://www.odac-info.org/ Scheer, 2002, Solar Economy