China and the United States will probably become trade partners.

1. Dr. Joseph Hartley, one of the world’s leading authorities on China, recently published a book called China: Our Future Partner. Dr. Hartley says that China’s growing economic freedom will lead to increased freedom for China’s people. He says that this will eventually lead to democracy in China, increased free trade, and greater economic prosperity for both China and the United States.In the future, • China and the United States will probably become trade partners. • China and the United States will probably become enemies. • China and the United States will probably become enemies and fight a war. • China and the United States will probably partner to lead the world.

2. Credibility of Dr. Hartley’s Claims • On a scale of 1 to 10 (10 is the highest), how believable are Dr. Hartley’s claims?

3. Dr. Constantine Menges, one of the world’s leading authorities on China, left a book to be published just after his death called China: The Gathering Threat. Dr. Menges says that China’s goal is to slowly but surely obtain world economic dominance. Dr. Menges’ extensive research leads the reader to the inevitable conclusion that China has no desire to cooperate with the United States; instead, China wants to take the premier economic position in the global economy to survive and dominate the world. This, he says, will probably lead to military conflict. In the future, • China and the United States will probably become trade partners. • China and the United States will probably become enemies. • China and the United States will probably become enemies and fight a war. • China and the United States will probably partner to lead the world.

4. Credibility of Dr. Menges’ Claims • On a scale of 1 to 10 (10 is the highest), how believable are Dr. Menges’ claims?

5. The Two Claims • Unless you know additional information that leads you to accept one of the two proposals, they should be equally believable. • We all have the tendency to believe the first reasonable source about matters that we know little of. • Teachers at Dartmouth have complained that students “use first legitimate source for their opinion.”

6. Multiple Claims for Truth • "It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it."- Aristotle • “It is the mark of a critical mind to be able to entertain two opposing thoughts without accepting either one.”

7. What Happens When You Don’t Ask Questions? • Speech by President Johnson • Article 30 years after President Johnson’s speech