The Residuals

1. The Residuals And why they are of interest to US Policymakers Or, the places that don't seem to fit the plan

2. What are we talking about? • There are five types of “residuals” • Those places that do not fit geographically into the Globalization/Regionalization trends • Those countries that exist, but do not function (failed states) • Those places that do not exist in law, but exist on the ground (Phantom States) • Places that exist but behave “outside the law” (Rogue States) • Those countries that may be too small to prosper in a globalizing world (Microstates)

3. Let’s consider Type 1 first: The “Who Am I?” States Culturally, Ethnically and Politically they belong here ? Strategically and Regionally it is located here But, the Asian Population cannot accept them as Asians. So, where do they fit? Australia is, in fact a hybrid of the US and UK systems, and is a nation of immigrants. Would it make any sense? Australia & NZ

4. 2. Places Falling Apart • Most of these are in Africa, but there is also North Korea, which cannot feed its own people; is a leftover from old-style Communism, and has the atom bomb • They have different implications for the USA

5. Africa First • The Continent has really basic problems: Population growth is outstripping economic growth—so it is going backwards; it faces continual food emergencies; it is an environmental problem of the first order, and is politically unstable. The Red Countries are Persistently Unable to Feed Themselves, and have people starving

6. Africa is not a Naturally poor place

7. The Problem is Historical Slavery requires Warfare, chaos, and Removes the strong • First, Africa was ravaged by Western and Arab Slave Traders for 300 years

8. In other words, the poverty of Africa is not Natural; but was CREATED By the end of the c19, every bit of Africa had been grabbed by one European Power or another They fixed the cost of Labor at a very low level; they fixed the prices for all the commodities they took, they kept the Continent out of the Industrial Revolution

9. Slave Trade • This destroyed the social order, trade and security of the people of Africa and reduced it to fear and deprivation. Social order collapsed. • The strongest and best were taken away, leaving the old and weak to carry on. The Continent was bound to decline • And then came Colonialism…

10. Libya Sudan Somalia Here is the familiar political map of modern Africa. But, these states have no historical meaning. These lines were drawn by Europeans with no reference to African culture, history, language etc. Hence, these states attract no loyalty. Consequently, these states are unstable. Also, the colonial powers did not allow any politics, so at independence, these “countries” had no experience of governance. They quickly collapsed. Many of these have become “hot spots’ for International Terrorism.

11. Remember… • The bombing of the US Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania by al-Qaeda • Al-Qaeda used Somalia as a base of operations, and was also present in the Sudan • This anarchy is encouraged by terrorist groups, as they can thrive in such places.

12. Any Bright Spots? • The African nations—all of them—have formed an African version of the European Union, called the African Union

13. This is a bold step that might: Create meaningful states Produce a larger Economy Increase the Voice of Africa End the Years of Instability Tackle Poverty

14. Second Residual: Anomalies • These are “oddball” countries that do not fit neatly into the rules of diplomacy or international relations • In a world of rapid change these places can suck in larger players and serious consequences follow • There are several types of such countries

15. Anomalies • We may group them as follows: • Failed States • Phantom States • Rogue States

16. Type 1: Failed States The Ivory Coast (106.0 points) Democratic Republic of Congo (105.3 points) Sudan (104.1 points) Iraq (103.2 points) Somalia (102.3 points) Sierra Leone (102.1 points) Chad (100.9 points) Yemen ( 99.7 points) Liberia ( 99.5 points) Haiti ( 99.2 points) Foreign Policy Magazine published, annually, a list of “Failed States.” • These are legitimate countries, and probably members of the UN • But, they have ceased to function in any meaningful way—law and order have broken down; the administration is in chaos, etc. • And we don’t know how to handle this without “interfering in the sovereignty of another country” even though no-one seems to be in charge

17. A Classic Case: Somalia • All semblance of government has collapsed here, but “does it exist?” How do we deal with it? We had a disastrous brief occupation there.

18. Other Failed States Other Failed States Afghanistan Iraq Sierra Leone and Liberia Sudan Solomon Isl. Ivory Coast Congo E. Timor

19. The Significance • We have a device known as the Montevideo Convention of 1933, that outlines how we recognize states. • Until now, we have not needed to “derecognize” them • “A State …should possess the following qualifications: a permanent population; a defined territory; a government, and; the capacity to enter into relations with other states.” Montevideo Convention

20. Afghanistan: What Happens when we Leave? For the US… this means what? • A failed state is really one that is a menace to itself, as the citizens have been denied their basic rights. • Apart from the humanitarian aspects, this does not have too much significance for the US—except… • The “failed state” is a prime target for those who would take advantage of the chaos—mainly terrorists. Iraq: A Failed State? Or A non-state? Pakistan 2007: Falling Apart? U.S. Ally

21. Type 2: Rogue States • These are states, that do function, but work outside the conventions of diplomatic practice, the standards of international relations etc. • In other words, they “misuse” their sovereignty, to the detriment of others • President Bush referred to them as “Rogue States.” They are represented by his “Axis of Evil”

22. “The Axis of Evil”

23. Rogue States Verified They must exist because there is even a video game about them. However, it is rather easier to deal with them in a video game.

24. Classic Examples North Korea The Ultimate Looney Tune Iraq: Terrorists and WMDs??? Neutralized Neutralized Neutralized Libya These are important because they can abuse the conventions and become a threat to stability in the world order (by harboring terrorist camps for instance).

25. The Ultimate Rogue State 9/11 gave the US the motive to take out the Taliban Government. The same argument was used with Iraq; though the provocation was not as obvious. Afghanistan

26. The U S Policy • Basically one of the Pre-emptive Strike • Which means to take out a regime that is clearly set on endangering the US or its citizens. • This is justified by the nature of the “War on Terror,” which is not against states unless they harbor terrorists • This is now, since September 2002, part of the official Defense Policy of the USA. It is also a major challenge to International Law and International Relations

27. Which brings us to the 3rd Anomaly The Phantom State

28. Which is? . . . . • Unlike the failed state, which exists but does not function, this functions but does not exist. Strange, you say, but how is that possible? • Most of these resulted from the break-up of existing states (particularly the USSR and Yugoslavia), and the fall-out left some long-term, unresolved problems. • Which means we have places masquerading as countries, but no-one “officially” recognizes them.

29. Give me an Example, and Why Should I Care? Focus of unresolved War between Armenia And Azerbaijan. South Ossetia is a Key point in the Smuggling of nuclear materials Russia Oil This is Abhazia. It has functioned as a country for 17 years Major drug smuggling Money-laundering, and Center for trafficking in Underage prostitution Oil Iran

30. The Longest-lasting UN comes in in 1974 To separate warring Parties, and has been There ever since An “independent state” established, which is recognized by no-one other than Turkey. 1974: Turkey invades And occupies North part Of the island where Turks live. Greek Government Proposes union with Cyprus: Enosis August 1960 Cyprus Independence The “Green Zone” Admitted to EU. How? Cyprus effectively partitioned

31. Where are these places? Transdneistria S. Ossetia Abhazia NagornoKarabakh HercegBosna RepublicaSrpska North Cyprus

32. Why do these places matter? • They can misuse the powers of a state, because no-one else is controlling that part of the World • They become transit points for guns, drugs, money laundering, trade in young women from the former USSR • They can drag in other countries because none of these places could exist without a “patron” country. 82% of all opium Is grown in Afghanistan

33. And for the US? • Since these countries do not legally exist—how do we deal with them? • At the same time we cannot have “exceptions to the rule” of sovereignty or these will be abused. • The fact is, these things did not exist before, and we don’t really know how to bring them to closure. They are, however, very dangerous

34. Next Category: Small Countries • What is a small country? • We have countries with populations below 10,000 • But generally we are talking about countries with fewer than 1m • In the context of the USA, of course, the Netherlands is a small country, though its economy is bigger than that of Russia

35. Our Definition • Small countries are those around 1m or below, usually very dependent on outsiders for their income and having a “developing country” profile. • Remember, we are talking about countries here, not dependencies that belong to some bigger power: Martinique (France), Cayman Islands (The UK)

36. These are some of the very small countries The Caribbean and Central America The South Pacific Africa

37. How Many of these Countries Have You Ever Heard of? Maldives Malta Marshall Islands Mauritius Nauru Niue Palau Papua New Guinea Samoa Singapore Seychelles Sao Tome and Principe Solomon Islands St. Kitts and Nevis St. Lucia St. Vincent and the Grenadines Suriname Tonga Trinidad and Tobago Tuvalu Vanuatu • Antigua and Barbuda • Bahamas • Barbados • Belize • Cape Verde • Comoros • Cook Islands • Cuba • Cyprus • Dominica • Fiji • Federated States of Micronesia • Grenada • Guinea-Bissau • Guyana • Haiti • Jamaica • Kiribati

38. Why are such small places important to us? • Mainly, these are recognized countries and countries can do things that individuals cannot. Such as--- • Launder Money • Buy Guns Something like that No, REAL guns

39. Why are such small places important to us? (2) Large-Scale Bank and Investment Scams A Caribbean bank with numbered accounts The two Russians who set up an Internet bank in Antigua, the European Union Bank, and then disappeared with $10 million in cash did not help Antigua's reputation as a haven for money laundering. Antigua's lack of cooperation has increasingly frustrated FBI and Customs agents. All that happened some time ago, and there have been some changes for the better since then. Gambling Magazine

40. Why are such small places important to us? (3) • These small, vulnerable countries are often next to large, developed states • The Caribbean is next to the USA • The South Pacific is next to Australia • These are major markets for drugs, which, with money laundering, are probably the largest element in international trade.

41. How it works Then they are brought in quietly to the US—often a distance of only 90 miles The vast amount of cash collected is taken to the banks of C. America and the Caribbean They move to the thousands of small islands of the Caribbean by boat and light plane From here the money, now “legitimate” can move back to the States, or indeed, anywhere Drugs originate in S. America

42. In Brief. • These countries, because of their small size, cannot have the same degree of oversight that big countries can. Quite simply they may lack the skilled and experienced personnel • This leaves them VULNERABLE • But, they are still sovereign countries, so what can the US do to control this trade?

43. Money Laundering and the US • Published Friday, March 30, 2001 • Clean fun, dirty money • Cash laundered through international trade is tough to track • Some 600 delegates from 42 countries are attending the Miami Beach conference.BY GREGG FIELDS • And Washington and Western Europe are pressing the banking havens of the Caribbean to do away with their banking secrecy laws, which make laundering all the easier. • But results have been mixed, and not everyone is sure that the odds are in favor of success. Even if Caribbean governments cooperate, • opportunities like insurance annuities, the U.S. stock market and black market money exchanges in Latin America mean the focus on banking is only part of the solution. • "There are literally thousands of places for these people to go to,'' said José Marrero, special agent in charge of the IRS criminal investigation division in South Florida. • Kenneth Rijock preferred the Caribbean. An ex-lawyer who now advises law enforcement agencies, he went to prison for laundering drug money for drug traffickers via Caribbean banking havens. • "It's a different world down there,'' he said. Local officials, he said, would see his bags full of money, then wave him through without question. "You are bringing money in to form the basis of a financial services sector,'' he said.

44. Options • Use the scale factor—my gun is bigger than your gun Grenada Work out some “shared sovereignty” arrangement, as we did with Barbados Intervene Directly