Greater New Jersey Annual Conference

1. Greater New Jersey Annual Conference Historical Trends And Projections through 2030 By Donald R. House RRC, Inc March 1, 2013

2. Worship Attendance • Best Indicator of Congregational Vitality • GNJAC has been declining since 1980 • Has declined precipitously since 2000 • 2000 had 57,000 worshipers • 2010 had 48,000 worshipers, minus 18.8% • Further serious reductions forecast • 2020 will have 43,000 worshipers, minus 11.6% • 2030 will have 35,000 worshipers, minus 18.6% more

3. Where Have Our Losses Been?

4. Factors Influencing Worship Attendance • Local Church Spending Patterns (more is better) • Programs • Non-clergy Staff • Facilities • Congruence of Local Church and Surrounding Area affinity Groups (matching is needed) • Age of Elders and Length of Elder Appointments (older not helpful, length is better)

5. What is Our History on Important Factors? • Program Spending – Down 43% last 11 years • Non-clergy Staff Spending – Up 14% • Facilities Spending – up 14% • Clergy Age – Growing Older on Average • Length of Clergy Appointment - Lengthening • Congruence Between Affinity Group inside the church and that outside the church – Varies, but generally less well matched, not only ethnicity but also age

6. Congruence Between Affinity Groups • A Church’s Affinity Group is the largest ethnicity within the Church (white, black, Hispanic, Asian) • The External Affinity Group is the largest ethnic group within a 3 mile radius of the church • There are three main alternative situations • Same ethnicity and age in both, external growing • Same ethnicity in both, external not growing, local church’s average age may be diverging from extern affinity group • External ethnic group is different from internal or external is the same, but declining. Age differences probably becoming more pronounced

7. Responses to Ethnic Differences - 1 • Internal ethnicity and age matches external ethnicity and age and external is growing • Growth of the church will come naturally if programs and overall experiences within the church continue to match the needs of the worshippers. i.e. If the experiences appeal to current worshippers, they will also appeal to non-worshippers who resemble them

8. Responses to Ethnic Differences - 2 • If both internal and external ethnicities are the same, but the external is not growing, care must be taken to assure that programs and church experiences do not address only the interests of an aging church population, else the church will decline through lack of appeal to younger persons in the population at large

9. Responses to Ethnic Differences – 3 • If the main ethnic group or population age outside the church is different from that inside the church, or if the outside group is declining, there are three choices of action available • Develop programs and outreach to the new majority or growing ethnic or age group • Move to an area where the internal and external ethnicities and ages are the same and the external is growing • Close now or later

10. Study’s Projections • Program and non-clergy staff spending will increase little on an inflation adjusted basis through 2030, about 40% of the all conferences average • Affinity populations will decrease .6% annually, but will increase .75% annually for churches over 500 worshippers • There will be only six new church starts between now and 2030, about half the rate of all conferences • 123 churches are expected to close by 2030 • Average age of pastors in churches that existed in 1990 will increase to over 60 years of age whereas pastors in churches started after 1990 will average 49 years of age

11. Study’s Projections – Cont. • Worship Attendance will decline to 34,800 by 3020 • We will have only 152 elder positions in 2030 • We will go from a present surplus of elders to a shortage of elders beginning in 2016

12. What To Do? • Two Groups Best Positioned for Growth • Local Churches located where their respective affinity populations are expected to grow by 1% or more over the next five years. Studies indicate that worship attendance should increase in response to these demographic changes, all else being equal • This means that all churches need to know their situation with respect to their external affinity group • Local churches with measured spending deficiencies. Studies prove that worship attendance is responsive to changes in spending on programs and non-clergy staff. • This requires implementation of a process such as the Benchmark Project

13. What To Do – Cont. • What about Churches facing declining affinity populations? • Relocate. Studies indicate that, on average, worship attendance doubles when a church leaves a location with a declining affinity population and relocates where the affinity population is increasing • Increase the radius of the circle within which 90% of the members reside. Methods used to accomplish this task include increased advertising, more public exposure of effective mission projects, and establishing public events.

14. Final Thoughts – Quotations from the Study • The annual rate of decline of 1.61% in worship attendance is striking and the number of years in which this rapid rate of decline has persisted should be alarming. Today could legitimately be called a time of crisis. • For an annual conference to grow, there must be a transition among lower-tiered churches to upper-tiered churches. Growth does not happen with an increase in the number of lower-tiered churches • A local church can improve its prospects for growth by spending more on programs, staff and facilities known to enhance growth • Greater New Jersey must arrest the decline in worship attendance in order to remain a functioning annual conference. The arrest cannot be accomplished with new church starts alone, but without new church starts, it will take 97 declining churches to be transformed into growing churches of average size to arrest the decline. Any successful strategy must be focused. • Length of appointment is directly related to worship attendance among all but the smaller churches • The age of the senior pastor is inversely related to worship attendance

15. Isaiah 43 • 16 The Lord says- Who makes a way in the sea And a path in the mighty waters, 17 who brings out the chariot and horse, army and battalion; they will lie down together and will not rise; they will be extinguished, extinguished like a wick 18 Don’t remember the prior things, don’t ponder ancient history 19 Look! I’m doing a new thing; now it sprouts up; Don’t you recognize it? I’m making a path in the desert, paths in the wilderness