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Market outlook for ethanol , other fuels, and agricultural products

Patrick Westhoff FAPRI University of Missouri westhoffp@missouri.edu. Market outlook for ethanol , other fuels, and agricultural products. 2009 International Sweetener Colloquium Orlando, February 9, 2009. U.S. biofuel production.

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Market outlook for ethanol , other fuels, and agricultural products

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  1. Patrick Westhoff FAPRI University of Missouri westhoffp@missouri.edu Marketoutlook for ethanol, other fuels, and agricultural products 2009 International Sweetener Colloquium Orlando, February 9, 2009

  2. U.S. biofuel production

  3. Petroleum prices Global Insight forecasts for West Texas Intermediate

  4. FAPRI ethanol production projections

  5. Omaha rack (wholesale) prices for ethanol and gasoline Source: FAPRI-MU projections, Nov. 2008. Prices expressed on a Sep.-Aug. year basis.

  6. U.S. ethanol dry mill operating costs and returns Source: FAPRI-MU projections, Nov. 2008

  7. U.S. ethanol production capacity Source: Renewable Fuels Association. Note: Excludes plants that have been built but that are not operating.

  8. U.S. ethanol supplies

  9. Ethanol share of motor gasoline use FAPRI November 2008 estimates

  10. Ethanol consumption by category Source: FAPRI-MU projections, Nov. 2008. *To meet air quality requirements and state mandates

  11. Biofuel consumption and the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) Source: FAPRI-projections, Nov. 2008. Assumes tariffs and tax credits extended Notes: RFS adjusted for shortfall in cellulosic production relative to mandate; one gallon of biodiesel assumed to count as 1.5 gallons of biofuel

  12. 2008/09 corn, petroleum prices Source: FAPRI 2008 stochastic baseline. FAPRI is now developing its 2009 stochastic baseline.

  13. 2008/09 corn, petroleum prices Futures, 6/6/08, March 2009 contracts: NYMEX petroleum: $136.93-$5.00 basis; CBOT corn: $6.92-$0.40 basis Source: FAPRI 2008 stochastic baseline. FAPRI is now developing its 2009 stochastic baseline.

  14. 2008/09 corn, petroleum prices Futures, 1/27/09, March 2009 contracts: NYMEX petroleum: $41.58-$3.00 basis; CBOT corn: $3.77-$0.25 basis Source: FAPRI 2008 stochastic baseline. FAPRI is now developing its 2009 stochastic baseline.

  15. U.S. and Brazilian ethanol production

  16. U.S. and Brazilian sugar prices

  17. THANKS! • To contact me: westhoffp@missouri.edu • FAPRI-Missouri website: www.fapri.missouri.edu

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