1 / 61

Agricultural Outlook

Agricultural Outlook. Iowa Chapter of the ASFMRA Annual Meeting Ames, Iowa February 5, 2009 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. +81. -50. -100. -50. +316. $4.00. -0.10. $3.90. Source: USDA-WAOB, Jan. 2009.

erno
Download Presentation

Agricultural Outlook

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Agricultural Outlook Iowa Chapter of the ASFMRA Annual Meeting Ames, Iowa February 5, 2009 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use +81 -50 -100 -50 +316 $4.00 -0.10 $3.90 Source: USDA-WAOB, Jan. 2009

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use +38 -30 +50 $9.00 NC $9.00 Source: USDA-WAOB, Jan. 2009

  4. Drought in South America Source: USDA-WAOB, Dec. 2008

  5. Argentine Drought Impacts (Early Reports) 2007 Production Corn 20.9 million tons Soybeans 46.2 million tons Current USDA Estimates Corn 16.5 million tons -21% Soybeans 49.5 million tons +7% Estimates from Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange Corn 12.3 to 13.7 million tons -35 to -41% Soybeans 34.5 to 38.2 million tons -17 to -25% Source: Dow Jones Newswires

  6. Chinese Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB, Jan. 2009

  7. Soybeans in China Source: USDA-PSD, Jan. 2009

  8. Livestock Adjustments Sows farrowing: Sept-Nov 2008 2.99 million, down 6% from last year Dec-Feb 2009 2.97 million, down 3% from last year Mar-May 2009 3.01 million, down 2% from last year Broiler-type eggs set: 203 million, down 7% from last year Broiler chicks placed: 166 million, down 6% from last year Feedlot placements: 2.02 million, down 5% from last year Sources: Various USDA-NASS reports

  9. Ethanol Margins Source: ISU, CARD

  10. Biodiesel Margins Source: ISU, CARD

  11. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

  12. U.S. Blended Motor Gasoline Consumption Source: Energy Information Administration

  13. Outside Influences (Jan. 2007 = 1)

  14. Outside Influences (Sept. 2008 = 1)

  15. Corn & Soybean Area Growth rate of 1.55 million acres per year

  16. CRP Expiring Contracts Source: USDA-FSA

  17. Input Costs Source: USDA, Agricultural Prices, Dec. 2008

  18. The Rise and Fall of Fertilizer Prices Source: http://www.fertilizerworks.com/html/market/ TheMarket.pdf

  19. Ammonia Prices Source: http://www.fertilizerworks.com/html/market/ TheMarket.pdf

  20. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs Source: USDA-NASS and Duffy and Smith, http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/pdf/a1-21.pdf

  21. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs Source: USDA-NASS and Duffy and Smith, http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/pdf/a1-21.pdf

  22. Estimates for 2009 Iowa Costs December 2009 Corn Futures = $4.16 (2/2/09) November 2009 Soy Futures = $9.25 (2/2/09) Source: Duffy and Smith, http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/pdf/a1-20.pdf

  23. Crop Exports Source: USDA, PSD

  24. Exchange Rates (Jan. 2003 = 1) Source: USDA, ERS

  25. Exchange Rates (Jan. 2003 = 1) Source: USDA, ERS

  26. 2007 World Corn Exports Drought issues for 2008 crops Source: USDA, FAS

  27. 2007 World Soybean Exports Drought issues for 2008 crops Source: USDA, FAS

  28. Pace of Corn Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  29. 2008 U.S. Corn Exports Source: USDA, FAS

  30. Pace of Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  31. 2008 U.S. Soybean Exports Source: USDA, FAS

  32. U.S. Stocks-to-Use Ratios

  33. World Stocks-to-Use Ratios

  34. Finishing Out the 2008 Crop Year • General economic conditions • A lot of recent market trade has been tied to reaction to the financial crisis and the world’s response • Economic slowdown raises concern about export and energy demand • Most important ag. statistic: Exchange rates or South American production • Current futures are indicating 2008 season-average prices of $3.75-4.25 for corn and $9.25-9.75 for soybeans • Stress on South American crops has provided some support for prices

  35. Thoughts for 2009 and Beyond • Many of the storylines from 2008 will continue • Tight stocks for corn (worldwide) and soybeans (U.S.) • The competition for acreage • Ethanol’s buildout & livestock’s adjustment • Energy price & general economy concerns • Market volatility will remain high • Link to the energy markets • More market players with different trading objectives • Given current factors, the 2009 outlook is for crop prices around $4.00 for corn and $8.50-8.75 for soybeans • Key factor: Economic growth returns by early 2010

  36. Hog and Cattle Outlook 2009 and Beyond John D. Lawrence Extension Livestock Economist Iowa State University

  37. Total production and competing meats Hog liquidation underway, but slowing? Tighter beef supplies and contracting MCOOL Feed costs and risks Overview

  38. Year over year declines in chicken started in September

  39. Supply side favorable Reduction underway Demand side a concern Smaller supplies of competing meats Exports below 2008 record levels Consumer income Breakeven year expected Liquidation slowing Hog Overview

  40. Livestock Marketing Information Center

  41. Dec Hogs and Pigs Report

  42. Dec Hogs and Pigs Report

  43. Sow Slaughter in US

  44. Smaller supplies Exports below 2008, but second largest Domestic demand steady to weaker Watch feed costs Profitable summer, breakeven year Contraction slowing Hog Summary

  45. Demand concern looms Herd reduction underway Lower supplies of competing meats Feed cost implications Cattle Overview

More Related