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Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Aviation Weather Services

Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Aviation Weather Services. Kevin Johnston. NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002. Outline. Team Composition Vision/Benefits Goals/Targets Key Information Gaps Key Solutions Outstanding R & D Needs Summary. Aviation Services Team Composition.

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Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Aviation Weather Services

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  1. Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Aviation Weather Services Kevin Johnston NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002

  2. Outline • Team Composition • Vision/Benefits • Goals/Targets • Key Information Gaps • Key Solutions • Outstanding R & D Needs • Summary

  3. Aviation ServicesTeam Composition • Kevin Johnston (NWS/OST) • Mark Andrews (NWS/OS) • Lynn Sherretz (OAR/FSL) • Gary Ellrod (NESDIS) • Aviation Weather Center • Regional Aviation Meteorologists

  4. Aviation ServicesVision / Benefits Vision Operational Utility of All Aviation Forecasts to Exceed 85% Accuracy • Reduce National Airspace System Weather Delays by 10% • Expected Savings of $600M/Year (Air Transport Assoc. Study) • Reduce Alternate Fuel Cost up to 50% ($200M Savings) • Reduce General Aviation Weather-Related Fatalities by 25%

  5. On Track Low Risk High Risk Aviation ServicesGoals/Targets to FY 12

  6. Aviation ServicesKey Information Gaps • More Accurate Icing Forecasts • More Accurate Clear-Air Turbulence Forecasts • More Accurate Identification of Low Clouds/Visibility • More Precise Timing/ Location of Convection • Knowledge of Model Guidance Uncertainty

  7. Aviation ServicesKey S&T Solutions

  8. Aviation ServicesKey S&T Solutions (Continued)

  9. 10 02 05 06 07 08 04 09 11 12 03 Aviation Weather Key S&T Solutions * MDCRS Water Vapor/EDR Observations MM Radar Dual Pol Low Cloud Imagery Advanced Ensembles 8km WRF DA/Models Deployment *UPS Fog Conditional Climo *First Guess TAF Hourly MOS OTE Forecast Techniques *ACT in GFE Prob TSTMS/WFO Grids/TSTM Height DTE *SFO Low Cloud *NYC Low Cloud *PIT Low Cloud R&D *NCWF FAA IFTA FAA FIP Verification RTVS/TAF CWSU Products Training *Low Cloud/Vsby *Probability

  10. Aviation ServicesOutstanding R&D Needs • Develop Numerical and Subjective Techniques to Improve 0 - 6 Hour Convection Forecasts • Develop Methods to Observe and Forecast Slant Range Visibility • Develop Techniques for Forecasting the Time of Formation and Burn-off of IFR Conditions to Within 1Hour • Improve Methods to Detect, Monitor and Predict In-Cloud Icing Potential • Improve Clear Air Turbulence Forecasts • Develop Methods to Assess Operational Utility of Forecasts • Develop Tools to Prepare Grids or Objects for IFPS to Generate Aviation Weather Elements and Products

  11. Aviation ServicesSummary Vision Operational Utility of Forecasts to Exceed 85% Accuracy • R&D Needs • Develop Methods to Observe and Forecast Slant Range Visibility • Improve Methods to Detect, Monitor and Predict In-Cloud Icing Potential • Develop Techniques to Improve 0 - 6 Hour Convection Forecasts • Improve Clear Air Turbulence Forecasts • Develop Methods to Assess Operational Utility of Forecasts Improving U.S. Aviation Safety and Reducing Air Traffic Delays • Improve Model Resolution and Accuracy • New and Improved Forecast Techniques • New Observations • Focused Training Increasing Performance • Probabilistic Techniques • Dual Polarization/MM Radar • Higher Resolution Obs. 2002 2007 2012 2020

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