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Great Debates in IR theory. 1920s-Realists vs. Idealists- basic assumptions, nature of human beings 1950s-Traditionalists vs. behavioralists- methodology. Laws. Patterns Regulatiries of IR or other physical phenomena How to explain laws?. Theory building. Hypothesis generation
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Great Debates in IR theory • 1920s-Realists vs. Idealists- basic assumptions, nature of human beings • 1950s-Traditionalists vs. behavioralists- methodology
Laws • Patterns • Regulatiries of IR or other physical phenomena • How to explain laws?
Theory building • Hypothesis generation • If X then Y • Independent –dependent variable • Causal relationship • Correlations • Spurious relationship
Science as method • Explain • Predict • Induction vs deduction • Inductive fallacy
Theory • Select facts/interpret facts • To facilitate explanation • Prediction • Intellectual construct • Composed of several sets of interrelated propositions to interpret and explain facts
Scientific approach • What is scientific? • accumulation of knowledge • Systematic strategy-essential • Aim is to control unsupported speculation • Science is a matter of methods
Popperism-Karl Popper • Testability • Falsification • Tentativeness • Importance of methods over results
Popper • Believe there is not such thing as absolute certainty • But we can still falsify wrong conjectures • Theoretical and methodological diversity • Key strengths in social sciences
Traditional approach • Participant observation • Diplomatic history • International law/treaties • Memoirs • Case studies
Behavioral/positivist approach • Aggregate data • Quantitative analysis • Application of natural science methods to social sciences • Mathematical modeling • Simulation
Paradigms • Sets of dominant theories at given periods • Paradigmatic change- when a shift in dominant paradigm occurs, there is a scientific revolution (Kuhn) • Newtonian physics vs Quantum physics • Multiple Paradigms possible to explain same phenomena?
IR propositions • When there is a balance of power, the likelihood of war increases • When there is a preponderance of power, the likelihood of war increases • The stronger a state’s military capabilities, the less the likelihood of an attack against that state • Democracies are less likely to fight with each other
Rosenau-Thinking Theory thoroughly • Avoid treating the task of formulating an appropriate definition of theory • Empirical vs normative theory • Assume underlying order for all human behaviour • Sacrifice detailed description for general patterns • Accept ambiguity • Be ready to be proven wrong