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From Weather to Climate Scales: Estimating Water Resources and Flash Flood Forecasting

From Weather to Climate Scales: Estimating Water Resources and Flash Flood Forecasting. Baxter E. Vieux, Ph.D., P.E. Director, Natural Hazards and Disaster Research National Weather Center University of Oklahoma bvieux@ou.edu http://nhdr.ou.edu. Objectives. Water Resources Estimation-

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From Weather to Climate Scales: Estimating Water Resources and Flash Flood Forecasting

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  1. From Weather to Climate Scales:Estimating Water Resourcesand Flash Flood Forecasting Baxter E. Vieux, Ph.D., P.E. Director, Natural Hazards and Disaster Research National Weather Center University of Oklahoma bvieux@ou.edu http://nhdr.ou.edu

  2. Objectives Water Resources Estimation- • Hydrologic prediction from process scale to decadal and longer projections of water resources availability • Establish available water resources in Arbuckle-Simpson and SE Oklahoma in areas of water dispute. Short Term Forecasting- • Flash Flood Forecasting in headwater basins • Predict flood levels for emergency management

  3. Precipitation Water Resources Investigation  Hourly, Decadal, 4x4 km Flash flood forecasting and warnings  15 minute 1x1 km Mesonet station (Centrahoma) NEXRAD (Photo obtained from Mesonet website)

  4. Archival Radar Precipitation(1994-2004) Statistical Analysis— 80-90 events per year LB CAD 5.5-9 % STDERR: ~.11 inches

  5. Rainfall-Runoff SimulationsDecadal at Hourly Timesteps

  6. Fig.1. Study Area and selected stations Muddy Boggy and Clear Boggy watersheds are located in south central Oklahoma. Muddy Boggy and Clear Boggy Creeks are joined downstream and flow to Muddy Boggy River to its confluence with the Red River. Distributed Water Resources Estimation(How much is available?)

  7. Fig. 5. Estimation of the Recession Index for RORA program • Segment of the graph obtained for Clear Boggy near Farris data. Red lines connect minimums in decline flow sections. Green lines and letters show the estimated days per log cycle. Recession index for a given period of time consists in the average of those flow values (A, B, C, D, E). Water Balance ComponentsGroundwater Discharge ∆S = P – G – R – E - T ∆S =Change in storage P = Precipitation G = Recharge R = Runoff pET = Potential Evapotranspiration aET = Actual Evapotranspiration

  8. Recharge (Groundwater Discharge)Actual v. Potential ET Summer months— Soil moisture depleted Groundwater discharge is minimal Average Annual streamflow permitting may account for storage Climate Variability

  9. Evaluation of soil layer percolation Soil Layer If soil is saturated, then deep percolation is permitted to groundwater Comparison of simulated vs. observed cumulative runoff from January 1994 to October 2004 at the USGS streamflow station of Blue River near Blue

  10. Distributed Recharge Estimates Recharge as percolation through soil layer map from 1994 to 2004

  11. NWS FO HeadwatersCollaborative Pilot Project • Operational for 3 basins in the NWS FO • Planned addition 7 basins • High resolution distributed model’ • Gauge-adjusted radar rainfall derived from Level II and Oklahoma Mesonet.

  12. Urban and Rural BasinSimulation

  13. NWS FO Pilot Headwater Flash Flood Forecasting March 4-5, 2004

  14. CASA Radar Hydrologic Forecasting

  15. Questions? Lake of the Arbuckles

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