Trends in Homicide in the United States

1. Trends in Homicidein the United States by Fulano de Tal

2. Trends in Twentieth Century • Two Sharp Peaks • during alcohol prohibition • during drug prohibition • High unemployment also correlates with high homicide rates • The decline in homicide in the 1990s corresponds to a period of declining gun ownership

3. The first increase was during alcohol prohibition • The second was during drug prohibition • The recent decline, however, is during a period of continuing drug prohibition

4. There was a increase in unemployment in the 1970s and early 1980s when homicide increased • This was true for men and women • Unemployment declined in the 1990s as the homicide rate declined. • The 1930s was also a period of high unemployment

5. Correlation Between Unemployment Rates and Homicide Rates • Homicide rates and unemployment rates are positively correlated • This is true for both men and women • Data are for 53 years

6. Gun ownership also declined during the 1990s when homicide and other crime rates declined

7. Conclusions • Vigorous efforts to enforce prohibition of drugs or alcohol may lead to higher homicide rates • Higher unemployment rates may lead to increased homicide rates • Cutting the number of households with guns may cut homicide rates