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Arctic Change Detection Atmospheric Sciences-APL-PMEL

Arctic Change Detection Atmospheric Sciences-APL-PMEL. 20th Century Zonal Mean S urface A ir T emperature Anomalies (Nov. – Mar.). Winter (Nov. – Mar. ) Land Surface Air Temperature averaged 60-90N. 18 IPCC Models. Example of Successful Model Ensembles. Sept 2003. Tundra shown in Pink.

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Arctic Change Detection Atmospheric Sciences-APL-PMEL

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  1. Arctic Change Detection Atmospheric Sciences-APL-PMEL

  2. 20th Century Zonal Mean Surface Air Temperature Anomalies (Nov. – Mar.)

  3. Winter (Nov. – Mar. ) Land Surface Air Temperature averaged 60-90N 18 IPCC Models

  4. Example of Successful Model Ensembles

  5. Sept 2003 Tundra shown in Pink AVHRR Surface Temperature -4 -2 0 2 4 deg C Persistent Multivariate Arctic Changes Sea Ice Permafrost degradation

  6. Arctic Oscillation (AO) Index Thompson and Wallace, 1998 Geo. Res. Let.

  7. OW 2 4 6 8 10+ Ice Age Sept 2000 Sea Ice work with Applied Physics Laboratory

  8. Arctic Change in the last Decade March-May Heights Temps 500 hPa Temps 150 E 150 W Thickness

  9. http://www. http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect

  10. SUMMARY • JISAO collaboration on Arctic climate • Present Arctic conditions are unique in the instrumental record (1880 -2004). Over last five yearsmany indicators show strong persistence. • Arctic change is a combination of 1) intrinsic atmospheric variability, 2) internal feedbacks and 3) external forcing in unknown amounts.

  11. Projections of Spring Temperature on the AO and PNA Recent Anomalies AO PNA

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