Mark D. Levine Division Director Environmental Energy Technologies LBNL Workshop: Solar to Fuel – Future Challenges a

1. Issues in the Transition to a CO2-Neutral Economy Mark D. Levine Division Director Environmental Energy Technologies LBNL Workshop: Solar to Fuel – Future Challenges and Solutions March 28 – 29, 2005

2. Objectives • Provide insights into global scenarios of energy • use and greenhouse gas emissions and • Address question: role of energy technology in • preventing big problems Topics • Background • Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions • Policy: China example New Yorker

3. Background • Current global energy use: ~400 Exajouoles/yr; (United States is 25%) • Per capita energy use: • 11.5 kW (U.S.); 5 kW (W. Europe);1.5 kW (developing country) • Energy production and use accounts for ~80% of greenhouse gas • emissions • Pre-industrial level of carbon dioxide in atmosphere = 280 ppm; • current level is 370 ppm (1/3 higher), growing at >1.0 percent per year • No controversy about fact that this increase has anthropogenic source • Doubling of carbon in atm from pre-industrial levels => initial 2 deg C • increase (3.5 deg C increase at steady state)in global temperature • although climate change models still need much improvement, this • average result has been best estimate in all major studies since early 1970’s • major impacts likely to be caused by increased frequency of events such as • hurricanes, tsunamis, floods, droughts, and sea level rise rather than • simply temperature changes New Yorker

4. Scenarios • In my view, there is a need to rethink approach to energy and carbon emission scenarios • The current approach, exemplified by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios by the IPCC*, is flawed • like previous approaches, no attention is given to the underlying causes of energy use (e.g., refrigerators: efficiency, size, saturation; steel mills: processes, efficiency, tonnes of steel, uses of output) • even more problematical, this work involves statistics on analyses of uncertain meaning • ___________________________ • * Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change New Yorker

5. Scenarios Global energy-related and industrial CO2 emissions – historical development and future scenarios, shown as an index (1990 = 1). Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2000. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. London: Cambridge University Press.

6. Scenarios • Presentation today is for first phase of new work, • based on macro economic considerations • On-going work addresses global demand for energy • services: • Example 1 – refrigeration: size, saturation, and efficiency of refrigerators • Example 2 – air conditioning: climate; thermal characteristics of building; saturation and usage of air conditioners; efficiency • Example 3 – steel: demand for steel including materials substitution; efficiency of steel-making processes; mix of recycled vs. steel from ore New Yorker

7. Population Projections All scenarios assume the same population projections (source: World Bank). All scenarios break the world into ten regions as defined by LBNL.

8. North America and Western Europe remain near their current per capita energy usage. The rest of the world approaches 1x, 0.75x, and 0.5x the European level in 2075. North America and Western Europe decrease 0.5% per year from 2000 per capita energy usage through 2075. The rest of the world approaches 1x, 0.75x, and 0.5x the European level in 2075. Scenario Description Scenario 1 Scenario 2

9. Scenario 1A: Assumed per Capita Energy Usage North America fixed at 2000 level. Europe fixed at 2000 level. Rest-of-world matches Europe in 2075

10. Scenario 1B: Assumed per capita Energy Usage North America fixed at 2000 level. All of Europe and Pacific OECD reaches European 2000 levels. Rest-of-world reaches 0.75*Europe in 2075

11. Scenario 1C: Assumed per Capita Energy Usage North America fixed at 2000 level. All of Europe, and Pacific OECD, reaches 2000 European level in 2075. Rest-of-world matches 0.5*Europe in 2075

12. Scenario 2A: Assumed per Capita Energy Usage Energy use in North America and Europe declines 1%/yr per capita from 2005 Rest-of-world matches Europe in 2075

13. Scenario 2B: Assumed per Capita Energy Usage Energy use in North America and Europe declines 1%/yr per capita from 2005 Rest-of-world reaches 0.75*(Europe in 2075)

14. Scenario 2C: Assumed per Capita Energy Usage Energy use in North America and Europe declines 1%/yr per capita from 2005. Rest-of-world reaches 0.5 *(Europe in 2075)

15. Comparison: Total Primary Energy, Scenario 1 A/B/C compared to Scenario 2 A/B/C

16. Carbon Emitted per Unit of Primary Energy for All Scenarios Baseline assumption: carbon emitted per unit of primary energy will continue to decrease at its historic rate of 3.6% per decade

17. Projected Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration in 2100, Different Scenarios Assumes that for each unit of carbon emitted from 2000 to 2100, atm carbon increases by 0.5 units, as in past decades Does not consider effects of major changes in carbon content of energy supply

18. Policy • Story of China • illustrates a remarkable policy success 1980-2000 • shows tremendous policy challenges today • by its size and economic growth, will lie at the center of the policy matters technology policy internal (Chinese) energy policy international climate change policy New Yorker

19. Energy efficiency policies and investment in energy efficiency achieved remarkable results in China Energy Use, Actual and Projected at 1977 Intensity, 1952-1999

20. Major reversal in China since 2001 There’s been a dramatic change – with very serious consequences

21. What is to be done? • $25B/yr investment in energy efficiency is needed to cut energy demand growth in half • Restoring energy efficiency investment to early 1980’s level (that is 10-15% of supply investment) would be ~$6.5B/yr • Actual investment is ~$3B/yr! • $4-6B/yr investment in energy efficiency may be sufficient if policies bring forth the remaining needed investment

22. What policies will produce the needed investment? • Energy Efficiency Policies • targets for energy efficiency for industries, • building energy standards, • appliance efficiency standards, • auto fuel economy standards, and • Incentives for new transport infrastructure (bus rapid transit). • Supporting Programs and Policies • technical guidance • utility demand-side management • good economic signals • Investment Incentives • for whatever is not paid for by consumers (above)

23. Conclusion • If we are to reduce emissions of • greenhouse gases to acceptable levels, • everything is important • Policies • Energy efficiency technology • Zero-carbon supply technology

24. Carbon Emissions per Unit of Primary Energy: Three Scenarios of Future Development Decrease in carbon emitted per unit of energy produced (percent decrease per decade)

25. Projected Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration in 2100, under Different Scenarios of Carbon per Unit Energy Assumption: for each unit of carbon emitted from 2000 to 2100, atmospheric carbon in 2100 increases by 0.5 units.