We need more & more maize

1. We need more & more maize Dr. Dinesh T. Bhosale March 21, 2013

3. From allaboutfeed.net • India: Decline in maize production • According to Second Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains for 2012-2013 forecast, there is a 3.2% decline in the production of maize from 21.76 million tonnes to 21.06 million tonnes."In a globalised and market determined economy, there is always a competing demand on raw materials from different user industries," said Union Commerce & Industry Minister Anand Sharma in a written reply in the Lok Sabha. "At present, there is no such proposal to ban or restrict the export of maize," he said. "The export of agricultural products depends on various factors including availability of surplus over and above the requirement of buffer stock including strategic reserve, if any, concerns of food security, diplomatic/humanitarian considerations, international demand and supply situation, quality standards in the importing countries, varieties traded and price competitiveness, need to balance between remunerative prices to the growers and availability of agricultural products to common man at affordable prices," said the minister.(allaboutfeed.net)

4. Hindu Business Line • Chicken may rule firm as demand outstrips supply • Rising prices of maize are likely to be a source of concern for the Reserve Bank of India over the next two years, with the demand-supply gap for the key feed ingredient expected to exacerbate in this period. Food inflation in India has been driven by a sharp rise in the cost of poultry meat, which in turn has been spurred by the spiral ascent of maize (corn) prices globally. Chicken prices shot up by 21 per cent in January 2013 in comparison to the corresponding month of the previous year. It was the primary driver of food inflation during the month. Prices of poultry were nearly 14 per cent higher on an average in 2011-12 than the previous year. Simultaneously, eggs and milk prices have also been rising steadily as a consequence of costlier feed. According to International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts, production of maize is expected to fall short of consumption by 15 million tonnes (mt) in 2013-14, resulting in upward pressure on prices in India and overseas. The gap is expected to narrow to 3 mt in 2014-15 as cultivation of the crop is stepped up and in 2015-16, the situation will vastly improve as production outstrips demand by 3 mt, which will expand to 7 mt in 2016-17 and 2017-18. Over the past five years, production of maize has only risen by 0.9 per cent, even as consumption grew by 1.7 per cent. In 2013-14, however, production will shoot up by 10.3 per cent and consumption by 6.2 per cent. Over the 2014-15 to 2017-18 period, demand is expected to grow by 1.7 per cent and consumption by 5.5 per cent. Spot prices of maize have fallen from their peak of Rs 15,770 a tonne on the MCX in August 2012. But the worst appears to be over and the long-term trend for the agri-commodity is upward. Corn is presently trading at Rs 13,125 a tonne on the MCX. The immediate support is at Rs 12,950/ tonne and the support after this level is at Rs 11,750/ tonne. The key resistance will be at Rs 1,410 a tonne. Maize is the third-largest agricultural crop in India, accounting for over 50 per cent of total kharif coarse cereal production. Production of maize has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.9 per cent over the past decade and amounted to 21.5 mt in 2011-12. In contrast, consumption of maize has grown at a CAGR of 3.28 per cent and stood at 18-18.5 mt last fiscal. Around 50 per cent of total consumption is used for feed, primarily poultry feed, while around 5-10 per cent is used by the starch industry.The weather will play an important role in determining the extent of maize production in 2013-14. Temperature, rainfall and moisture are factors that determine the condition of the crop. But the minimum support prices announced by the Government for maize will play an equally important role in motivating greater cultivation of the commodity.At any rate, the availability of substitute products at a cheaper rate could weaken demand, particularly if the price of corn becomes too high to stomach. For example, jowar and bajra may be substituted by poultry feed manufacturers instead of maize. But seasonal fluctuation should be expected, as prices tend to be lower as harvesting progresses and produce starts coming into the market, but rises at the time of sowing and before harvesting due to the tight supply situation.

5. Hindu Business Line • India’s demand for milk likely to touch 210 mt by 2020-21: Amrita Patel • National Dairy Development Board (NDDB) Chairman Amrita Patel on Thursday said with increased income levels, the demand for milk is expected to go up to 200 -210 million tonnes by 2020-21, and called for collective efforts and increased productivity.While delivering the keynote address at the 41st Dairy Industry Conference, with the theme “Global Dairy Industry and Food Security” in Mumbai, she said the first obligation of the dairy industry is to continue to build and expand the domestic market and find creative ways with the Central and State Governments to ensure that an increasing proportion of children drink milk, according to an NDDB release here. Dr Patel pointed out that milk production has been growing at over four per cent annually compared to the growth in world milk production which is 2.75 per cent. Per capita availability of milk has also increased to 290 gm a day, which is comparable with the world per capita availability of 289 gm/day. Stressing upon a scientific approach, she said a comprehensive Web-based National Information Network covering all aspects of productivity enhancement, i.e., breeding, feeding and healthcare, has been developed at NDDB and is available to any organisation, producer, service provider and policy maker that wishes to link up. The NDDB is also setting up a national HRD facility to offer need-based technical, managerial and leadership training programmes, deliver distance education and facilitate training of trainers. The dairy industry must ensure that prices remained affordable and competitive, she added.

6. Projected Changes In Livestock Population (Million) ** million tons Crossbreds double, poultry 1.6 times, fish 1.7 times Source: NIANP, 2012

7. Status of Feed Availability (% Deficit / Surplus) Under Different Scenario - 2011 Scenario I – 100% each to productive & non productive animals Scenario II – 90% to productive animals & 80% to non productive animals Scenario III – 90% to productive animals & 60% to non productive animals

8. Estimated Requirement & Availability of Feed Resources By 2020 NIANP Estimates

9. Potential Oilcake Availability In India For The Period 2011 • # kernels to nuts ratio- 70% • *million bales of 170 kg each consisting of 2/3 seeds and 1/3 cotton • Assuming 60-70% of the potential availability ( leaving aside the direct consumption, use as seeds, differences in extraction efficiency etc) the actual availability works out to be around 12-14 million tons.

10. 2020 2012 Breeders 53 Million 32 Million Broilers • 100 mil/wk • 60 mil/wk Eggs • 65 Billion • 93 Billion How large will the poultry industry be in 2020? Source: Internal analysis

11. Layer Feed Market Sizing the market for poultry feed Source: BAHS 2010 (Ministry of Agriculture); Internal estimates

12. Broiler Feed Market Sizing the market for Poultry feed Source: BAHS 2010 (Ministry of Agriculture); Internal estimates

13. 2020 2012 • 0.34 MT Shrimp 0.19 MT • 6.76 MT • 3.65 MT Fish How large will the aquaculture industry be in 2020? Source: Internal analysis

14. Fish Feed Market Sizing the market for aqua feed Source: Internal estimates

15. Shrimp Feed Market Sizing the market for aqua feed Source: Internal Estimates

16. Aquaculture upside growth potential is massive Source: Internal data

17. Factors Affecting Usefulness Of Feed Ingredients

18. To a nutritionist maize is one of the golden ingredients which solves a lot of problems. It is a good source of energy and there is no other ingredient which can compete with maize in terms of its energy value. It is basically a source of energy and gives around 3250 kcal/kg ME. The main advantage of maize is that it contains less crude fiber and the number of incriminating factors are also very less in it. However, it is poor source of limiting amino acids.

19. In fact, if maize is available at good prices, it can be included at very high levels. Generally, in broiler diets the inclusion level of maize may vary between 55-70% from the starter to the finisher stages. As such there is no such upper limit for inclusion of maize because there is practically no toxic or antinutritional factors present there. Today we are looking for some alternative ingredients only because the price of maize has gone up. Had it been available at RS 11 a kg then the formulation job would have been much easier.

20. Very difficult to get maize replaced as we do not have any ingredient which is comparable to maize in terms of nutritive values. The only comparison can be made with broken rice. However, in pelleted feeds, broken rice above 20-25% may pose problem in getting good quality pellets. Wheat may be another option but again you can not get as much energy from wheat as you can get from maize. However, when maize is not available or highly priced then alternatives may be bajra or jower. In mash feed broken rice will also work. Generally, for millets the 20-25 % inclusion does not have any negative impact. Total replacement of maize is also possible with these ingredients although that will be a high risk affair.

21. Maize Requirements • Broiler Feeds: 6.5 MMT • Layer Feeds: 3.5 MMT • Cattle Feeds” 1 MMT • Others: 1 MMT • Total: 12 MMT

22. Raw Material Quality – The Major Issue

23. Raw Material Quality – The Major Issue

24. How To Deal With The Quality Issues?

25. Yellow Maize Specifications • Moisture : min 12 to max 14.0% • Foreign matter : max 2% • Weevilled Seeds : max 2% • Damaged otherwise : max 5% • Discoloured/immature kernels : max 5% • Broken seeds : max 2% • Aflatoxin : 30 ppb to 50 ppb • Free from live weevils

26. Private Sector % 80% 78% 24% 67% 67% 73% 71% But That Would Require R&D, Which Almost No Indian Company Is Doing Source: European Commission, CII

27. By the way, most of this is for dairy! ICAR budgets also ignore animal science Source: CSO, ICAR

28. Could we all agree to invest 0.25%? we need to adopt global animal science R&D funding benchmarks Source: Annual Reports

29. Office Bearers (2012 – 2014) • Dr. Dinesh T. Bhosale (Chairman) • Mr. Rahul Kumar (Deputy Chairman) • Dr. Sandeep Karkhanis (Deputy Chairman) • Mr. Amit Saraogi (Deputy Chairman) • Dr. P. G. Phalke (Hon’ Secretary)

30. Thank You !