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Holger Hoff Stockholm Environment Institute Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

International Conference on Food Security in Drylands Doha November 15 2012. Water-Related Risks and Opportunities for Foreign Direct Investments in Africa. Holger Hoff Stockholm Environment Institute Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. A new global freshwater assessment.

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Holger Hoff Stockholm Environment Institute Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

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  1. International Conference on Food Security in Drylands Doha November 15 2012 Water-Related Risks and Opportunitiesfor Foreign Direct Investments in Africa Holger HoffStockholm Environment InstitutePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

  2. A new global freshwater assessment Blue water availability per capita Gerten et al 2011

  3. A new global freshwater assessment Blue plus green water availability per capita Gerten et al 2011

  4. A new global freshwater assessment Change in blue plus green water availability per capita – climate change A2, 2080, ensemble mean

  5. A new global freshwater assessment ! productivity gradient along the Nile basin ! Crop water productivities (m3 water required for producing 1000 kcal under current crop mix and management

  6. A new global freshwater assessment Gerten et al 2011 Water-limited food self sufficiency potential

  7. Water situation in Sub-Saharan Africa largely semi-arid savannasystems UNEP 2004 onlyabout 10% ofrainfallbecomesbluewater (runoffandgroundwater) verylittleofthatbluewateristappedforagricultureorotherpurposes

  8. Water situation in Sub-Saharan Africa high variabilityanduncertaintyaboutrainfallandseasonalwateravailability CoVmonthlyrainfall Brown et al 2006 variabilityanduncertaintyareprojectedtoincreasewithclimatechange(Hansen et al 2012) -> needfor additional waterstorageandirrigation

  9. Water situation in Sub-Saharan Africa Lack ofbluewaterstorage (andotherwaterinfrastructure) Grey et al 2007 -> needfor additional waterstorageandirrigation

  10. Water situation in Sub-Saharan Africa < 5% ofagricultureisirrigated (comparedtoabout 40% in South Asia) FAO 2004 -> needfor additional waterstorageandirrigation

  11. Water situation in the Nile basin Green water availability per capita per subbasin - 2000 based on CPWF data

  12. Water situation in the Nile basin Green water availability per capita per subbasin - 2050 based on CPWF data

  13. Crop (water) productivity in the Blue Nile basin again: large productivity gradient -> win-win basin-wide solutions

  14. Effects of climate change: upper Blue Nile discharge Lopez 2012

  15. FDI risks – Ethiopia / Blue Nile Bossio et al 2012

  16. FDI risks – Ethiopia / Blue Nile Our estimate of contracted areas: 1.76 million ha if fully irrigated, annual runoff in the Blue Nile may drop by 5-20 % Land Matrix estimate: 3-6 million ha most significant effects in the dry season when river flow is lowest, but irrigation demand peaks water effects often downstream (different from land impacts) Bossio et al 2012

  17. FDI opportunities: sustainable intensification of irrigated AND rainfed agriculture investment / knowledge / technologies / are urgently needed,adapted to local conditions, providing local benefits “Large-scale farming is in most cases unlikely to be the most appropriate avenue for the commercialization of African agriculture” from: Awakening Africa‘s Sleeping Giant World Bank 2009 Water spreading weirs, GIZ, 2012 RWH, Malesu, 2009

  18. FDI opportunities: sustainable intensification of irrigated AND rainfed agriculture Thank you ! investment / knowledge / technologies / are urgently needed,adapted to local conditions, providing local benefits not only large-scale blue water infrastructure, but also scalable interventions across the green-to-blue spectrum, e.g. rainwater harvesting and storage, spreading weirs, etc as well as other inputs and interventions, e.g. integrated fertilizer & pest management, „green agriculture“ solutions Water spreading weirs, GIZ, 2012 RWH, Malesu, 2009

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