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Climate and Agricultural Outlook for 2008/09

Climate and Agricultural Outlook for 2008/09. Johan van den Berg SANTAM AGRICULTURE. RSA: Rainfall (mm) for the period 1 July 2007 – 30 June 2008. RSA: Rainfall (July 07 – June 08) expressed as % of long term average rainfall.

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Climate and Agricultural Outlook for 2008/09

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  1. Climate and Agricultural Outlook for 2008/09 Johan van den Berg SANTAM AGRICULTURE

  2. RSA: Rainfall (mm) for the period 1 July 2007 – 30 June 2008

  3. RSA: Rainfall (July 07 – June 08) expressed as % of long term average rainfall

  4. RSA: Rainfall expressed as % of long term average 1 November to 31 March La Nina 80-100% 100-120% 120-140% 140-160%

  5. La Nina (2007/08)

  6. RSA: Rainfall expressed as % of long term average 1 November to 31 March El Nino 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% 90-100% 100-110% 110-120%

  7. El Nino (2006/07)

  8. Neutral (2008/09)

  9. Favourable for hurricane development

  10. Nino3.4 Nino regions

  11. El Nino Average La Nina

  12. Wet Dry Wet Dry

  13. 2007/08

  14. Tropical cyclone development

  15. Tropical cyclone H L Cyclone Water = 18-28oC Water = 10-12oC

  16. ? ?

  17. Probability (%) for receiving at least median rainfall Dec 08 Oct 08 Nov 08 Mar 09 Feb 09 Jan 09

  18. Individual localities

  19. Grootfontein Namibia: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 days Above normal Below normal Dry Good Good 2008/09 Average

  20. Vryburg: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 days Above normal Below normal 2008/09 Average

  21. Clarens (Free State) : Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 days Above normal Below normal 2008/09 Average

  22. Delmas: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 days Above normal Below normal 2008/09 Average

  23. Prieska: Probability (%) for at least 20mm rain per 10 days Above normal Below normal 2008/09 Average

  24. Rustenburg: Probability (%) for at least 20mm per 10 day Above normal Below normal 2008/09 Average

  25. Historic rainfall

  26. RSA: Rainfall deviation from average (mm) Rainfall deviation from average (mm) Dry Wet Dry Wet Dry Seasons

  27. Free State: Rainfall deviation from average (mm) Rainfall deviation from average (mm) Dry Wet Dry Wet Dry Seasons

  28. North West: Rainfall deviation from average (mm) Rainfall deviation from average (mm) Dry Wet Dry Wet Dry Seasons

  29. Mpumalanga: Rainfall deviation from average (mm) Rainfall deviation from average (mm) Dry Wet Dry Wet Dry Seasons

  30. Climate change

  31. Villiers: Average 12 month rainfall total per decade (mm)

  32. Ottosdal: Average 12 month rainfall total per decade (mm)

  33. Correlation of annual rainfall totals vs time (rainfall 1960-2006) Climate change

  34. Maize Production

  35. Soil moisture conditions: Difference 2008 vs 2007 (mm)

  36. What is the production risk and the risk for not reaching margins like recovery of input cost • Method: • Yield simulation (Using a crop growth model) to generate historic yields • Use current inputs • Use historic climate data • Use soil inputs • Determine the production risk of current production systems in terms of historic climate data or climate history

  37. Lichtenburg: Simulated yields (kg/ha) over time • Red: Yields not higher than long term average (target yield) • Blue: Target yield according to climate for each specific season (perfect world)

  38. Lichtenburg: Cumulative distribution of yields over time (57 years) Interpretation: Probability (%) for not reaching certain yields 20% of years not reaching 2000kg/ha

  39. What is the risk for not recovering input cost? • Assumption • Input cost between R1400 (west) and R1700(east) per hectare • Input cost = fertilizer, fuel, seed, weed- and pesticides, insurance, labour. • For Lichtenburg: R1400 per ton for target yield of 3.5 t/ha = R4900 per ha

  40. Lichtenburg: Margins taking input cost into consideration (R/ha) over time Maize price (farm gate) = R1700/ton

  41. Lichtenburg: Margins taking input cost into consideration (R/ha) over time Maize price (farm gate) = R1700/ton 28% of years in loss situation

  42. Lichtenburg: Margins taking input cost into consideration (R/ha) over time Maize price (farm gate) = R2000/ton

  43. Lichtenburg: Margins taking input cost into consideration (R/ha) over time Maize price (farm gate) = R2300/ton

  44. Profitability over time

  45. Risk for not recovering input cost R1700/ton maize price Maize area

  46. Risk for not recovering input cost R2000/ton maize price Maize area

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