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Greenhouse gas emissions cap: a new paradigm for energy dependence in the long term?

Greenhouse gas emissions cap: a new paradigm for energy dependence in the long term?. Júlia Seixas , Patrícia Fortes , Sofia Simões , Luís Dias , João Gouveia , Barbara Mauricio CENSE – New University of Lisbon, Portugal. 34th IAEE International Conference  

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Greenhouse gas emissions cap: a new paradigm for energy dependence in the long term?

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  1. Greenhouse gas emissions cap: a new paradigm for energy dependence in the long term? Júlia Seixas, Patrícia Fortes, Sofia Simões, Luís Dias, João Gouveia, Barbara Mauricio CENSE – New University of Lisbon, Portugal 34th IAEE International Conference   Institutions, Efficiency and Evolving Energy TechnologiesStockholm, June 19 - 23, 2011

  2. Context & Objective • EU energy policy have been focus in maintain a balance between: energy security, competitiveness and environmental sustainability (e.g. climate change mitigation); • In 2009 the Portuguese energy dependence was 79.8%(EU27 54.7%); • Renewables are seen as a key strategy to achieve a reduction in energy dependence and GHG emissions; Objective: Assess how an aggressive GHG cap can affect long term energy in(dependence) trends for Portugal

  3. Methods – StudiedScenarios -50C -50F C -50Cres -50Fres F Cres Fres Min. 30% fossilcentral electricity No-Min Fossil Electricity -50% GHG/1990 in 2050 -50% GHG/1990 in 2050 No GHG capin 2050 No GHG capin 2050 Fenix Higher GDP and population = higher energy demand Conservative Lower GDP and population = lower energy demand

  4. Methods - StudiedScenarios Fenix Population GDP 2.5% Fenix 0.2% 0.3% 2.2% 0.3% 1.3% 1.0% 0.1% Conservative -0.2% 1.0% 0.7% -0.5% Conservative GHG emissions (-50 scenarios) 6.4 tCO2e/capita +27%/1990 4.4 tCO2e/capita Fenix: 2.0 tCO2e/capita -50%/1990 EU15 (2009) = 9.3 tCO2e/capita

  5. Methods – Model use Bottom-up TIMES_PT Policy constraints restrictions, taxes, subsidies, … Demand projections end-use energy services & materials Transport: roadpassengers (car – short / longdistance, bus – urban / intercity, moto), roadfreight, rail (passengers / freight) MaterialsandEnergyflows Oil, coal, gas and bioenergy import prices Final energy prices Primary energy supply: Refinery, imports and renewable energy Industry: Iron & Steel; Non-Ferrousmetals; Chlorine&Ammonia; OtherChemic.; Cement; Lime; Glass: Hollow/Flat; Ceramics; Pulp & Paper; Other Optimalcombinationofenergysupplyanddemandtechnologies Minimise total systemcosts Residential: Existing & New - Rural/ Urban /Multi appartment Electricity generation Emissions National primary energy potential Hydro, wind, solar, biomass Commercial: Large and Small Costs Installed capacity Agriculture Base year & New energy technologies capacity, availability, efficiency, life, costs, emission factors

  6. Methods – Exogenous Assumptions • National renewable potential • Energy costs (imported and endogeneous resources) • No nuclear, due to current policies; • RES targets, subsidies or feed-in tariffs not considered; *2030=2050

  7. Results – Primary energy consumption 13% 53% 66% 41% 70% RES PJ Endogenous resources Imports 40-44% ofimports 14% ofimports Fossil fuels Biomass Biofuels Other renewables Lower GHG cap (≈+8%/1990) is not enough to reduce external dependence Aggressive GHG cap leads to a decline of external dependence, but does not decrease below 54% due to bioenergy imports External Dependency

  8. Results- Biomass & Biofuels Biomass consumption per sector Energy consumption of road transport ≈ 0% 19% 59% 19% 56% % biofuels/H2frombiomass 63% 78% • -50f & -50Fres: 2nd generation biofuels - conversion of cellulosic materials to lignocellulosicethanol) and productionofH2frombiomass(gasification)

  9. Results - ImportsandEndogenousresources Agressive GHG cap will cause lower import cost  cheaper biodiesel andbiomass instead of oil

  10. Results - Percentage of imports cost in GDP • Inallscenario de % ofimportscostsin GDP islowerthan 2005 • GHG cap (-50F & -50Fefre) achieve the lower weight of the import costs in the GDP • In 2050, oil is the main responsible for import costs, except in -50Fand -50Fefre in which biofuels assume the higher share - 2% - 2% Fres -50Fres

  11. Conclusions • An aggressive GHG emission cap will not reduce external energy dependence below ≈50%; • Results from a sensitivity analysis with higher oil prices did not change this assessment; • The fossil fuel import paradigm will be replaced by a bioenergy import paradigm: bioenergy imports  1% in 2009 and 40-44% in 2050. • Only an aggressive energy efficiency policy will improve this aspect of energy security, together with improved electricity transmission capacity to support a highly renewable electricity system; • Further work: • sensitivity analysis considering large uncertainty on future bioenergy import prices and available quantities • analyse what changes have to occur in the energy system to reduce significantly the Portuguese external dependence

  12. Thankyou! Patrícia Fortes: p.fs@fct.unl.pt

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