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Global Energy and Technology in the Long Term

Global Energy and Technology in the Long Term. Energy for a Future Without Carbon Emissions AAAS Annual Meeting Jae Edmonds & John Clarke 19 February 2005 Joint Global Change Research Institute Washington, DC. Thanks to. Organizers of the Session US DOE Office of Science EPRI

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Global Energy and Technology in the Long Term

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  1. Global Energy and Technology in the Long Term Energy for a Future Without Carbon Emissions AAAS Annual Meeting Jae Edmonds & John Clarke 19 February 2005 Joint Global Change Research Institute Washington, DC

  2. Thanks to Organizers of the Session US DOE Office of Science EPRI Other sponsors of the GTSP 2

  3. Some Observations • Climate change is a long-term issue with a characteristic time scale of 100 years or more, but with implications for present decision making. • Climate is all about technology and managing the development and deployment of succeeding generations of a suite of technologies over the century ahead. • Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations means that the largest changes to the global energy system are in the second half of the 21st century. • Stabilizing the concentration of greenhouse gases require a credible commitment to limit cumulative emissions of carbon over the century. • Changes in the global energy system that could lay ahead are potentially massive. • The value of improving the suite of available energy technologies is large. 3

  4. The UNFCCC Article 2 The ultimate objective… ...stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. (p.5) 4

  5. Stabilizing CO2 Concentrations • Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations is the goal of the Framework Convention on Climate Change • Stabilizing the concentration of CO2 is a very long term problem • Stabilization means that GLOBAL emissions must peak in the decades ahead and then decline indefinitely thereafter. 5

  6. Stabilizing the Atmosphere • Free venting of carbon must eventually be phased out, • But, not necessarily fossil fuels. 6

  7. Stabilizing CO2Base Case and “Gap” Technologies • Assumed Advances In • Fossil Fuels • Energy intensity • Nuclear • Renewables • Gap technologies • E.g. CCS The “Gap” 7

  8. Timing of Emissions Mitigation Under WRE Emissions Reductions from Reference to Reach WRE Path 8

  9. There Are No “Silver Bullets” When It Comes to Stabilization • Energy Intensity Improvements • Industry • Buildings • Transportation • Wind and Solar • Biotechnology • Soils • Biomass crops • Advanced biotechnology • Nuclear • Fission • Fusion • Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage • Geologic • Terrestrial (soils, trees) • Advanced Transformation Systems • Electricity • Hydrogen • Bio-derivative fuels • Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases 9

  10. Technologies that are presently not part of the reference case could expand their roles dramatically and relative roles may change with time. 10

  11. Technology Contributions Change With Place and Time 11

  12. Technology Alone Won’t NECESSARILY Stabilize CO2 Concentrations Energy Related Carbon Emissions A reference case with continued technology development, and no climate policy. A reference case with advanced technology development of carbon capture and H2, but no climate policy. Emissions path that stabilizes CO2 concentrations at 550 ppm. 12

  13. Technology Helps Control Cost A reference case with continued technology development, and a limit on CO2 concentrations at 550 ppm. • Why control costs? • Wasted resources mean other worthy products go un-produced. • Or, we settle for lower environmental quality. • Carbon Tax • Uniformly & Efficiently Applied Over Time and Space A reference case with advanced technology development of carbon capture and H2, and a limit on CO2 concentrations at 550 ppm. 13

  14. CO2 Capture and StorageB2 with Stabilization Source: Dooley, et al. 2004 14

  15. Biomass and Land-Use Change Emission Energy B2 Reference B2 Reference with Climate Stabilization Land-use Emissions 15

  16. The Value of Improving the Present Suite of Energy Technologies is Large—e.g. CCS • Preliminary estimate • 2005 Present Value of Cost Reduction 2005 to 2095 • Discounted @ 5%/year 16

  17. Some Observations • Climate change is a long-term issue with a characteristic time scale of 100 years or more, but with implications for present decision making. • Climate is all about technology and managing the development and deployment of succeeding generations of a suite of technologies over the century ahead. • Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations means that the largest changes to the global energy system are in the second half of the 21st century. • Stabilizing the concentration of greenhouse gases require a credible commitment to limit cumulative emissions of carbon over the century. • Changes in the global energy system that could lay ahead are potentially massive. • The value of improving the suite of available energy technologies is large. 17

  18. END 18

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