Demand Forecasting Overview May 30, 2013

1. Demand Forecasting OverviewMay 30, 2013 • Agenda • Overview of Demand Forecasting Model • Demand Forecasting

2. Overview of Demand Forecasting Model • Demand forecasts are developed using models created and maintained for Amtrak by AECOM • Separate models have been developed for the: • Northeast Corridor • Long Distance routes • State Corridor routes • These models are used to forecast both: • The expected demand for the current service (FY14 forecast as an example) • The impact of a proposed change of service • Proposed changes of service include: • Adding a station • Adding a frequency • Change in travel time • Change in schedule • Service change (WiFi as an example)

3. Composition of the Models • The demand forecast models are based on extensive market research and other travel market data and inputs • Market research provides insight on both Amtrak customers’ and travel consumers’ sensitivity to: • Departure and arrival time • Travel time • On-time Performance (OTP) • Price • Frequency • Travel market data and inputs include: • Amtrak ridership and ticket revenue data • Amtrak timetables and pricing • FAA air passenger data • Airline schedules and fares • Socio-economic data and forecasts (provided by Moody’s Economy.com) • Highway network data providing competing auto travel times

4. Composition of the Models (continued) • Key independent variables that drive the model forecasts include: • Travel time • Frequency • Departure/arrival time-of-day slots • Average rail fares • OTP • Travel time and cost of competing modes of travel • Population, employment, and income of each market served

5. How Forecasts are Developed • The NEC and State Corridor models apply a two-stage approach: • First, the total travel market size (all modes) is forecasted • Then the total demand is divided by mode • Forecasts are built on the actual demand for each market over the last 12 months • Forecast are done at the market/city-pair level; the value for each of the independent variables listed below is determined for each market/city-pair • Travel time • Frequency • Departure/arrival time-of-day slots • Average rail fares • OTP • Travel time and cost of competing modes of travel • Population, employment, and income of each market served

6. Examples of Recent Types of Demand Forecasts • FY14 demand • Ridership, ticket revenue and passenger miles were provided at the route/month level for FY14 • These can be provided at the city-pair level on request • Adding new stations • We will calculate the incremental demand from a proposed station addition • Both incremental demand and demand transferring from current stations are considered and reported • The expected impact from the additional trip time is also included • Change in travel time • Changes in frequency • Change in OTP • Changes in schedule

7. FY15 Demand Forecast Schedule • We will develop the initial forecast for FY15 at the route and month level in September 2013 • We will update the FY15 forecast in January 2014 • This revised forecast will be made available for FY15 negotiations in early February 2014

8. How Amtrak Market Research & Analysis Team Works with State Partners • Demand Forecasting • We provide detailed forecasts for current and upcoming fiscal years • We can forecast the expected changes in demand for proposed changes in service • We can deliver more detailed forecasts and reports at cost • Market Research • We provide ridership profiles for all state corridor routes. We are updating these this summer. They include the following for our customers: • Demographic: Who they are • Behavioral: What they do • Attitudinal: What they want • We manage specific market research projects at cost. Projects include: • Pre-campaign exploratory research • Post-campaign measurement (ROI) • Passenger and travel consumer segmentation • On-board ridership profiles and attitudinal studies • Qualitative research on service offering (current and proposed) • Reporting