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Dr. Alexander Hedderich. CEO, DB Schenker Rail. International Rail Business Forum - Sochi. 30 May 2013. Competition and vertical integration: a Germany perspective. German rail reform with transport- and fiscal-policy motives. Aims of railway reform. Instruments. More rail transport.
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Dr. Alexander Hedderich CEO, DB Schenker Rail International Rail Business Forum - Sochi 30 May 2013 Competition and vertical integration: a Germany perspective
German rail reform with transport- and fiscal-policy motives Aims of railway reform Instruments More rail transport • Commercialisation of public bodies/ transformation into private sector companies (Aktiengesellschaft, plc.) • Strict commercial orientation of DB AG • Public functions (economic and safety regulation, definition and financing of public service obligations) at the federal and regional government • access to railway infrastructure • Harmonisation of competitive conditions between modes of transport (Infrastructure, fiscal framework …) Competition on rail Relief of public burden International Rail Business Forum I 29.05.2013 2
The independence requirements of EU and German railway law are complied with Structure of DB AG • Accounting • separation • Legal and • organisational • separation • Functional • separation Deutsche Bahn AG Infrastructure and services DB Mobility Logistics AG DB Netz AG Passenger transport Freight and logistics DB Station & Service AG DB Regio AG Schenker Rail AG ... DB Fern-verkehr AG Schenker Logistics AG ... ... ... ... ... International Rail Business Forum I 29.05.2013 3
1994 Rail Reform has made it possible to sustainably strengthen rail transport in Germany Volumes sold rail passenger transport Germany, in bn passenger kilometers Volumes sold rail freight transport1 Germany, in bn tonne kilometer 113.3 110.0 107.3 88.4 85.0 84.1 71.7 71.0 70.6 69.6 68.1 65.2 +56% 1994 1995 1996 2010 2011 2012 1994 1995 1996 2010 2011 2012 +36% • Sources: DB AG, Federal Statistical Office, BMVBS/BAG • 1 Figure is net volumes sold until 1998, and gross volumes sold as of 1999, i.e. shipments in loaded containers including weight of container International Rail Business Forum I 29.05.2013
Market share of competitors in rail freight is growing Traffic capacity rail freight(Bn. ton kilometers) 115.7 114.6 113.3 • In 2012 traffic capacity fell by just under 3% • The competitors performance increases with 6.5% • The market share of DB‘s competitors operating rail freight is now by 28.6% 110.0 107.3 107.0 95.8 95.4 91.9 85.1 81.1 70.6 21.2% 16.4% 14.4% 9.6% 24.6% 6.9% 28.6% 4.8% 26.1% 1.2% 25.1% * Deutsche Bahn1 Other railways’ market share Other freight railways 1) DB Schenker Rail Deutschland AG and RBH Logistics GmbH since 2006 * estimation Sources: Federal Statistical Office, DB International Rail Business Forum I 29.05.2013
Competitor railways enjoyed dynamic growth in 2012 year-on-year change Operating performance by competitor railways on DB infrastructure(million train-path kilometres) +5% +13% Market share competitors Operating performance by competitors of DB was up almost 5% year-on-year to 229 million train-path kilometres +15% operating performance competitors / change compared to thepreceding year 229 219 +6% +10% 195 +14% 170 161 +17% 146 +25% 128 +25% 110 +40% +29% 88 +50% +28% 70 50 39 20 26 Source: DB data International Rail Business Forum I 29.05.2013 6
Competitors operating local passenger trains increase market share up to 25 percent Deutsche Bahn competitor‘s market share competitors Ordered local passenger rail services(Mio. train kilometers) • Market share of the competitors operating local passenger trains increases up to 25% • The total market volume increased since 1994 around 28% above 640 million train kilometers 629 634 642 644 619 628 634 637 633 629 161 61 75 83 97 103 116 128 137 155 502 12 487 483 490 558 553 551 540 530 513 501 497 Source: DB 25,0% 24.1% 21.6% International Rail Business Forum I 29.05.2013 20.3% 18.4% 2.4% 16.2% 15.2% 13,1% 11,9% 9.9% 1994 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
When comparing the performance of railway markets, the effect on public expenditure must also be considered Germany France Great Britain Rail transport volume +28% +46% Passenger transport(in bn. pkm) 96 +88% +52% -38% 71 Freight transport(in bn. tkm) +48% 1994 2010 1994 2010 1994 2010 Annual public expenditures per transport volume1)(in €-Cent per pass-enger ton kilometer; prices as of 2000) +18% -34% +99% 2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010 • Fully liberalised railway markets • Powerful regulatory body • DB is an integratedcompany • Compliance with mini-mum requirements of liberalisation • No independent regul-atory body until 2010 • Formal separation, operation of infrastructure by SNCF • Fully liberalised railway markets • Powerful regulatory body • Full separation between transport and infra-structure 1) Public expenditures include payments to public transport authorities, train operating companies and rail infrastructure companies. For GB, based on accounting period (April to March) Sources: Commission des Comptes des Transports (F), Office of Rail Regulation: National Rail Trends Yearbook 2010 (UK), Eurostat (Inflation) and own International Rail Business Forum I 29.05.2013 8
Liberalisiation is most advanced in Sweden, Great Britain and Germany - according to IBM Liberalisation Index Rail SE Sweden, 872 GB Great Britain, 865 DE Germany, 842 DK Denmark, 825 Advanced 800 – 1.000 points NL Netherlands, 817 AT Austria, 806 BE Belgium, 753 CH Switzerland, 741 CZ Czech Rep., 738 SK Slovakia, 738 PT Portugal, 737 PL Poland, 737 On Schedule600 – 799 points IT Italy, 737 EE Estonia, 729 NO Norway, 729 RO Romania, 726 BG Bulgaria, 718 FI Finland, 672 SI Slovenia, 672 HU Hungary, 658 FR France, 612 LT Lithuania, 592 GR Greece, 592 LV Latvia, 587 Delayed 300 – 599 points LU Luxembourg, 585 ES Spain, 583 IE Ireland, 467 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Liberalisation Index Rail 2011 Source: IBM 2011 International Rail Business Forum I 29.05.2013 11
Since Rail Reform, DB has invested extensively in the rail system Procurement ofnew vehicles Comparison of average annual capital expenditure at Deutsche Bundesbahn and at DB AG Modernization of the rail system AfterRailway Reform BeforeRailway Reform Investment in stations EUR 7.4 bn p.a. Modernization of the infrastructure Grossinvestment EUR 2.1 bn p.a. thereof: EUR 3.6 bn of DB’s own resources Deutsche Bundesbahn ( 1970-1993) DB Group ( 1994-2009) International Rail Business Forum I 29.05.2013 12
Advantages of Holding Model can be differentiated in six aspects Drivers 1 Embracing initiatives and projects in favour of quality and efficiency (short-/ medium term) 2 Better investment- and supply-decisions – no stand-alone optimisation (long-term perspective) 3 Static/ dynamic cost savings and lower co-ordination costs in joint fuctions Personenverkehr Transport und Logistik Eisenbahn in Deutschland 4 Joint labour market 5 Infrastruktur Embracing technological competence/ systems integrator 6 Efficiency-, market- and investment-orientation/ financial stability of infrastructure International Rail Business Forum I 29.05.2013 13
PRIMON findings: The integrated railway is less costly – differences in transport performance are moderate PRIMON-report: Separation Model vs. Integration Budgetary effects compared Traffic effects 2020 (€bn*) Separation Model vs. Integration Model Separation Delta Integration Local and regional rail passenger transport 633.0 million train-km 633.0 0.0 Share non-DB* 40.0 50.0 10.0 Share modal split* Not available Not available no effect Long-distance rail passenger transport 28.3 billion passenger-km 29.0 0.7 1.0 Share non-DB* 5.8 4.8 - 9.7 to -12.7 + 3.3 - 6.4 to - 9.4 2.9 Share modal split* 3.0 0.1 Rail freight 109.0 125.0 billion tonne-km 16.0 Asset effect for owner Cuts in regionalisation funds Extra cost of separation model for public purse 18.4 Share non-DB* 26.6 8.2 14.8 Share modal split* 17.1 2.3 * Discounted sum of quantified, model-dependent budgetary effects, capital market-oriented method Note: forecasts for 2020, as no noteworthy effects can be given for 2010 and 2015 * figures in per cent or percentage points International Rail Business Forum I 29.05.2013 14