Assessment Process for Comprehensive Water Management in Agriculture Ecosystem

1. Assessment ProcessforComprehensive Assessmentof Water Management in Agriculture“Ecosystem chapter”based on material supplied byHabiba Gitayconsultant to the Comprehensive Assessment

2. What is an assessment? An Assessment • Is a critical and objective evaluation of information, for guiding decisions on a complex, public issue (or issues) • It is based around policy-relevant or user/stakeholder questions • It is designed to inform a specific audience or ‘authorising environment’ (It does but it is not designed to introduce yet new jargon – please ask if you get confused)

3. An assessment • Is not a medium for presenting new research findings …. • Most data are already collected, peer-reviewed and in public domain, or in other assessments • Can be ‘gap-filling’, and contain new (re)runs of old models and syntheses • Focuses on identified policy questions/issues • Judgement on veracity and uncertainty of evidence, clearly labelled, is required • Is not a personal advocacy piece • Represents a ‘balanced’ and evidence-based view from the writing team, with external review, and demonstrated response to the review • Is not an opportunity to promote pet topics or own work, nor develop personal research agendas • It is a team effort and assessment of the evidence

4. Some Characteristics of an Assessment • Process: open, transparent, reviewed, widely representative • Technically accurate, evidence-based • Aims toreduce complexity, but add value to existing information • summation, synthesis and sorting of what is known and widely accepted from what is not known or not agreed or uncertain • Conducted by a team of experts • broad range of disciplinary and geographical experience; different knowledge systems • able to work together and have fun – team rapport is necessary

6. Dealing with (un)certaintyQuantitative scale • Very certain (>=97.5% probability) • High certainty (83-97.5%) • Medium certainty (67-83%) • Low certainty (52.5-67%) • Very uncertain (<52.5%)

7. Dealing with (un)certainty - qualitative scaleCan be used in main text; must be used in Executive Summary / Summary for Decision-Makers Level of agreement or consensus Low High Established but incomplete Well Established Speculative incomplete Competing Explanations Low High Amount of evidence (observations, theory, model outputs etc)

8. Framework for the AssessmentBased on (much improved) the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment • Concentrates on issues or questions • Gives focus / keeps us on track • Four important components • Development Goals • Pressures / Drivers of change • Resource Base – agricultural systems / biodiversity landscape • Outcomes / Impacts • Consider & document (draft) key messages covering strategies, interventions, investments & agricultural practices (to support achievement of Goals), provide & assess evidence and case studies

9. Development Goals Poverty and hunger reduction sustainable growth, improved health and nutrition, Environmental sustainability Equity • Pressures/Drivers/ • Trends • Population and consumption patterns • Urbanization • Trade • Climate Change • Increasing Complexity Outcomes / Impacts (+/-) Food, Fibre, Income, employment Changes in resource base (nutrients, degradation/enhancement) Resource Base Water, Soil, Biodiversity Human capacity Management Interventions Policies on subsidies, trade, Market access Agricultural Systems Fishery, livestock, crops, agro-forestry/plantation Agricultural / Environmental practices Strategies, interventions & investments