Adaptation Science Management Team Conference Call January 22, 2014

1. Gulf Coastal Plains & Ozarks Landscape Conservation Cooperative: Past Progress, Current Activities, and Future Directions Adaptation Science Management Team Conference Call January 22, 2014

2. Objectives and Outline • Overview LCC activities from 2013 to ensure ASMT is aware of existing science efforts • Science Agenda • RFP • Multi-LCC projects • Discuss broad science priorities for 2014 • Strategic Plan • Landscape and Species Assessments • Landscape Conservation Design • Offer up some potential next steps for 2014 • Engagement in TATs • In-person ASMT meeting

3. Official LCC Mission • To define a shared vision for sustainable natural and cultural resources in the face of a changing climate and other threats; design strategies to achieve that vision; and deliver results on the ground through leadership, partnerships, contributed resources, evaluation and refinement over time

4. Official LCC Mission • To define a shared vision for sustainable natural and cultural resources in the face of a changing climate and other threats; design strategies to achieve that vision; and deliver results on the ground through leadership, partnerships, contributed resources, evaluation and refinement over time

5. Strategic Habitat Conservation

6. Integrated Science Agenda • Communication Tool • Describe how the GCPO LCC is “operationalizing” SHC

7. Science Need Themes • Define desired states for each habitat in terms of specific endpoints • Species-habitat relationships for species indicative of desired states for habitats

8. Defining Landscapes Ozark Highlands • Geographic frame of reference Mississippi Alluvial Valley West Gulf Coastal Plain East Gulf Coastal Plain Gulf Coast

9. Priority Habitat Types

10. Establishing Conservation Targets • Endpoints define the desired states for broadly-defined habitat types • Landscape • Spatial and temporal patterns of habitat • Species • Ecological role (habitat, functional, etc.)

11. Open Pine Woodland and Savanna • Ecologically Desirable State of the System • Woodlands and savannas comprised mostly of pine with low basal area, open canopies, and dense herbaceous understories in large interconnected blocks

12. Open Pine Woodland and Savanna • Ecologically Desirable State of the System • Woodlands and savannas comprised mostly of pine with low basal area, open canopies, and dense herbaceous understories in large interconnected blocks • How much pine? • How low does the basal area need to be? • How open the canopy? • How much understory? • How large the forest block? • How interconnected?

13. Open Pine Woodland and Savanna Defining Desired Levels Landscape and Species Endpoints

14. Integrated Science Agenda • Communication Tool • Describe how the GCPO LCC is “operationalizing” SHC • Articulate the initial subset of science needs that are the specific priorities of the GCPOLCC Partnership and the logic behind their identification • Context for LCC science

15. Science Need Themes • Define desired states for each habitat in terms of specific endpoints • Species-habitat relationships for species indicative of desired states for habitats • ID of indicators for economically and culturally sustainable landscapes • Current assessment of landscape • Prediction of alternative future landscapes • ID prominent drivers of system change and mechanisms by which they act • Better define decision context

16. Request for Proposals • 5 Topic Areas • ~$1.75 M available • $350K/topic area • Timeline • Released July 15th • Closed August 30th

17. Five Topic Areas • Linking Habitat and Population Objectives and Integrating Multidisciplinary Conservation Goals • Quantification and Evaluation of Relationship between Species and Landscape Endpoints for Priority Systems • Characterization of Flow • Evaluation and Assessment of Incentives for Natural Resource Management on Private Lands: Identification of Economic and Cultural Endpoints/Indicators • Targeting Science Need Themes in the GCPO LCC’s Integrated Science Agenda

18. Request For Proposals - Response • 78 Proposals Submitted Under 5 Topic Areas • Integrating Multidisciplinary Conservation Goals (12) • Evaluating Species and Landscape Endpoints (25) • Characterization of Flow (6) • Economic and Cultural Indicators (11) • Addressing Science Needs from Science Agenda (24)

19. Proposal Review Process - Structure • Reviewers (33) • ASMT (11) • PAC (3) • SC (6) • GCPO LCC Staff (10) • External Partners (5) • Science Coordinators from adjacent LCCs (6)

20. Proposal Review Process - Structure • All reviewers required to sign “Reviewer Conflict of Interest and Confidentiality Agreement” • Disclose real or perceived conflicts • Some reviewers reassigned • Maintain confidentiality of proposals and review team discussions

21. Proposal Review Process - Structure • Reviewers provided standard ranking form

22. Proposal Review Process - Structure • Reviewers provided standard ranking rubric

23. Proposal Review Process - Outcomes • Individual reviews compiled by topic area

24. Proposal Review Process - Outcomes • Composite rankings provided to Review Teams

25. Proposal Review Process –Timeline • September 6: Review Team receives proposals • September 27: Reviews due back to Tirpak • September 30: Topic 3 Review Team convenes • October 28-November 15: Review Teams convene to review composite rankings and develop recommendations • November 18: Review of recommendations by Partnership Advisory Council • November 21: Final project selection by Steering Committee

26. Portfolio of Selected Science Projects • 9 projects • Topic 1: Integrating Multidisciplinary Conservation Goals • McGowan – Grassland Habitat Management DSS • Riffell – Delivering Open Pine Conditions on Managed Forests • Topic 2: Evaluating Species and Landscape Endpoints • Murrow – Black Bear Habitat Modeling • Conner – Evaluating Open Pine Conservation Targets • Robinson – Developing and Testing Endpoints for Priority Freshwater Aquatic Habitat Types • Topic 3: Characterization of Flow • LaFontaine – Assessing Flow for the GCPO LCC • Topic 4: Economic and Cultural Indicators • Grala – Landowner Values for Alternative Land Uses • Topic 5: Addressing Science Needs from Science Agenda • He – Forest Changes from Climate and Urbanization • White – Developing DECs for Open Pine Systems

27. McGowan • Title: Grassland Habitat Management for Diverse Taxa and Stakeholders • Cost: $77,110 • PIs: McGowan, Lonsdorf, Guyer, Grand • Affiliations:USGS AL Coop Unit, Chicago Botanic Gardens, Auburn • Subgeography: EGCP • Objectives: • Expand existing grassland decision tool to include non-avian species • Incorporate economic and cost considerations into existing DST

28. Riffel • Title: Open Pine Habitat: Desired Ecological States by Managed Forests • Cost: $91,368 • PIs: Riffell, Wigley, Miller, Deusen • Affiliates: MSU, NCASI, Weyerhaeuser • Subgeography: East and West Gulf Coastal Plains • Objectives: • Evaluate extent to which different forest management techniques provide desired ecological states for open pine • Evaluate potential for operationally-feasible forest management scenarios to provide open pine conditions over time

29. Murrow • Title: GCPO LCC Black Bear Habitat Assessment with Associated Landscape Endpoints • Cost: $50,831 • PIs: Murrow, Clark, Thatcher • Affiliations: UMD, USGS, UT-K • Subgeography: Ozark Highlands and MAV • Objectives: • Improve and couple existing LA and Ozark bear models • Identify specific forest endpoints associated with bears

30. Conner • Title: Using wildlife habitat models to evaluate management endpoints for open pine woodland and savanna • Cost: $132,104 • PIs: Conner, Smith • Affiliates: Joseph W. Jones Ecological Research Center • Subgeography: East and West Gulf Coastal Plains • Objective: • Evaluate efficacy of habitat characteristics to be predictive of species occurrence for open pine system endpoints

31. Robinson • Title: Assessment of Water Availability and Streamflow Characteristics in the GCPO LCC for Current and Future Climatic and Landscape Conditions • Cost: $170,000 • PIs: Robinson, Davis • Affiliations: SARP • Subgeography: Entire LCC • Objective: • Developing and documenting conservation targets for freshwater aquatic priority habitat types identified in Science Agenda • Landscape endpoints • Species endpoints

32. LaFontaine • Title: Assessment of Water Availability and Streamflow Characteristics in the Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks Landscape Conservation Cooperative for Current and Future Climatic and Landscape Conditions • Cost: $349,787 • PIs: LaFontaine, Hay, Archfield, Bock, Hart, Markstrom, Regan, Viger, Hunt, Kern, Montgomery • Affiliations: USGS • Subgeography: Entire LCC • Objectives: • Simulate streamflow using daily time step model • Provide summary products to characterize current and future flow

33. Grala • Title: Assessment of ecosystem service value and program delivery options: establishment of a scalable model for understanding landowner engagement opportunities • Cost: $227,148 • PIs: Grala, Gordon, Hunt, Cooke, Galik, Olander, Urban, Nelms, Hatcher • Affiliates: MSU, Duke, NRCS, Farm Bureau • Subgeography: East & West Gulf Coastal Plains, MAV • Objectives: • Assess landowner values towards alternative land uses in bottomland hardwood, open pine, and grasslands • Spatially depict variability in landowner preferences for incentive program attributes, information tools, expected participation in EGS program delivery options

34. He • Title: Changes in Forested Landscapes of Gulf Coastal Plains & Ozarks Under Alternative Climate and Urban Growth Scenarios • Cost: $259,500.20 • PIs: He, Thompson, Iverson, Guldin • Affiliations: University of Missouri, USFS • Subgeography: Entire LCC (-OZH) • Objective: • Model landscape change under alternative climate, urbanization, management scenarios

35. White • Title: Developing and Applying Desired Forest Condition Metrics to Enhance Wildlife Habitat and Biodiversity Within Southern “Open Pine” Ecosystems • Cost: $125,496 • PIs: White, Wilson, Ware • Affiliations: NatureServe, USFWS • Subgeography: Entire LCC • Objectives: • Develop a definitive set of desired forest condition metrics to define wildlife needs and ecological integrity • Develop a protocol to use in assessing ecosystem integrity

36. Science Need Themes Portfolio of Selected Science Projects • Define desired states for each habitat in terms of specific endpoints • White – Developing DECs for Open Pine Systems • Robinson – Developing and Testing Endpoints for Priority Freshwater Aquatic Habitat Types • McGowan – Grassland Habitat Management DSS • Species-habitat relationships for species indicative of desired states for habitats • Murrow – Black Bear Habitat Modeling • Conner – Evaluating Open Pine Conservation Targets • ID of indicators for economically and culturally sustainable landscapes • Riffell – Delivering Open Pine Conditions on Managed Forests • Grala – Landowner Values for Alternative Land Uses • Current assessment of landscape • LaFontaine – Assessing Flow for the GCPO LCC • Prediction of alternative future landscapes • He – Forest Changes from Climate and Urbanization • ID prominent drivers of system change and mechanisms by which they act • Better define decision context

37. Technical Advisory Teams • Form • Established for each project • At least 3 to 5 individuals who have knowledge and expertise related to the research topic • Understand LCC’s interests and desired outcomes • Member of “target audience” for research • Function • Serve as sounding board for PIs • Ensure projects accomplish the desired outcomes • Liability for products remains with PI and agreement administrators

38. Technical Advisory Teams • Specific responsibilities • Participate in 1-3 webinars at start of project • Ensure common expectations of objectives, methods, products, and outcomes between partners and PIs • Provide input on key questions and issues for PIs • Read progress reports and participate in webinars biannually • Ensure adequate progress is being made towards desired outcomes • Provide recommendations on and ultimately approve final reports and products

39. Technical Advisory Teams • Seeking volunteers to serve on TATs • Interested or know someone that is? • Call • Email • Write in chat box February 1st deadline

40. Science Need Themes • Define desired states for each habitat in terms of specific endpoints • White – Developing DECs for Open Pine Systems • Robinson – Developing and Testing Endpoints for Priority Freshwater Aquatic Habitat Types • McGowan – Grassland Habitat Management DSS • Species-habitat relationships for species indicative of desired states for habitats • Murrow – Black Bear Habitat Modeling • Conner – Evaluating Open Pine Conservation Targets • ID of indicators for economically and culturally sustainable landscapes • Riffell – Delivering Open Pine Conditions on Managed Forests • Grala – Landowner Values for Alternative Land Uses • Current assessment of landscape • LaFontaine – Assessing Flow for the GCPO LCC • Prediction of alternative future landscapes • He – Forest Changes from Climate and Urbanization • ID prominent drivers of system change and mechanisms by which they act • Better define decision context

41. Multi-LCC Projects • Interior Least Tern Population and Habitat Monitoring • Landward Migration of Wetlands in Response to Sea-level Rise and Urbanization • Providing Training Opportunities to LCC Partners: Introduction to SDM • February 24-28 @ Auburn University • Mississippi River Connectivity: Hypoxia and Wildlife Corridor

42. Science Need Themes • Define desired states for each habitat in terms of specific endpoints • White – Developing DECs for Open Pine Systems • Robinson – Developing and Testing Endpoints for Priority Freshwater Aquatic Habitat Types • McGowan – Grassland Habitat Management DSS • Species-habitat relationships for species indicative of desired states for habitats • Murrow – Black Bear Habitat Modeling • Conner – Evaluating Open Pine Conservation Targets • ID of indicators for economically and culturally sustainable landscapes • Riffell – Delivering Open Pine Conditions on Managed Forests • Grala – Landowner Values for Alternative Land Uses • Current assessment of landscape • LaFontaine – Assessing Flow for the GCPO LCC • Interior Least Tern Population and Habitat Monitoring • Prediction of alternative future landscapes • He – Forest Changes from Climate and Urbanization • Landward Migration of Wetlands in Response to Sea-level Rise and Urbanization • ID prominent drivers of system change and mechanisms by which they act • Better define decision context • Providing Training Opportunities to LCC Partners: Introduction to SDM • Mississippi River Connectivity: Hypoxia and Wildlife Corridor

43. National LCC Project • Integration of Conservation Design Across LCCs of the Eastern United States

44. Strategic Plan • Developed and approved by the Steering Committee • Outlines • Vision • Mission • Challenges • Long-range goals • Way of working • 5-year strategies

45. Strategic Plan • Mission • To define a shared vision for sustainable natural and cultural resources in the face of a changing climate and other threats; design strategies to achieve that vision; and deliver results on the ground through leadership, partnerships, contributed resources, evaluation and refinement over time

46. Strategic Plan • Long-range goal • Collaboratively identify and agree on the best and most representative examples of healthy ecosystems as priorities for conservation and management

47. Strategic Plan • Conservation Science Strategy • The GCPO LCC will work with our partners and other organizations …to develop a robust science agenda that employs the principles of adaptive management on a landscape scale, and which defines a future conservation landscape capable of sustaining natural and cultural resources at desired levels

48. Strategic Plan • Conservation Delivery Strategy • The GCPO LCC will develop the appropriate tools, [and] decision support…to facilitate strategic and coordinated conservation delivery

49. Priority LCC Activities for 2014 • Landscape and Species Assessments

50. Priority LCC Activities for 2014 • Landscape Conservation Design • Conservation decisions often reflect an unstated logic on why a specific action is taken at a specific place to affect a specific target • Spatial depiction of this logic is conservation design