Workshop on the preparation of fourth national communications from Annex I Parties.

1. Report of the Outcome of the Workshop on emissions projections from Annex I Parties Bonn, 6-8 September 2004Micheal YoungDepartment of Environment, Heritage and Local GovernmentIreland. Workshop on the preparation of fourth national communications from Annex I Parties. Dublin, 30 September – 1 October 2004

2. Objectives • ‘To discuss methods, assumptions, indicators, key parameters of models and sensitivity analysis and dissemination of methodologies’ • Exchange of information • 23 presentations to stimulate discussion • Attendance • 36 Parties of which 7 Non Annex I • 5 NGOs.

3. Format of Workshop 3 Working Papers • UNFCCC Secretariat Day 1 Cross cutting issues. • Presentation 10 Parties Day 2 Energy, Industry and Waste • Presentations from 9 Parties Agriculture and Land use, Land-use Change & Forestry • Presentations from 4 Parties Day 3 Plenary Discussion

4. General and cross-cutting Reporting Issues • Consistent definition of projections scenarios • ‘with measures’ all P&Ms • ‘with additional measures’ – all GHG mitigation P&Ms clearly defined. • ‘without measures’ - counterfactual but useful ex post information on efficacy of past GHG measures. • Transparent presentation of information • Sectoral and GHG basis using template • Summary information on methodologies, models and key assumptions

5. General and cross-cuttingReporting Issues • Consistency with latest available GHG inventory • Preference for finalised GHG data. • Same sectoral breakdown for projections and inventories • Institutional arrangements • Important given cross disciplinary nature of task

6. General and cross-cuttingMethodological Issues • Approach should best suit national circumstances • Not possible to indicate particular model type • Integration of cross-country factors • Consultation with neighbouring Parties • Electricity imports/exports • Uncertainty assessment • Sensitivity analysis • Monte Carlo simulation techniques

7. General and cross-cuttingMethodological Issues • How to facilitate comparability? • Common international assumptions • Oil prices, carbon prices etc • Projection of macroeconomic costs and impacts • How were costs estimated? • Dissemination of methodologies • UNFCCC Secretariat

8. Energy, transport, industry & wasteissues • Key source analysis from GHG inventory to inform projections • Availability of robust data • Benefit of complete energy balance • ‘reality check’ for F gases • Emissions trading and project based mechanisms • Emissions from transport shown separately • Important to model individual transport modes. • Model spillover effects of P&Ms on non–Annex I Parties .

9. Agriculture and LULUCF • Appropriate projected emission factor • Methane emission factor from livestock • Likely increased importance of sensitivity analysis • Globalisation of agriculture • Timefame for projections • Generally 10 years • Recommendation for specialised models? • Better to focus on good scientific practice • Presentation of main drivers – key source analysis • Importance of textual interpretation

10. Agriculture and LULUCF • Forestry projections well established • Challenges for LULUCF projections • Harvesting rate – international timber prices • Soil carbon stock – changes in land use/management practices • Defining land use, tracking changes • IPCC Good Practice Guidance • Will significantly improve inventory and hence projections • Derive list of drivers recommendation for Specialised models?

11. Conclusions. • Improve reporting: Enhance clarity of guidelines • Consistent definition of scenarios • Transparent presentation of information • Descriptions of models, drivers. • Uncertainty assessment • Institutional arrangements • Exchange of information