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The Politicization of Climate Change

The Politicization of Climate Change. Cliff Mass, Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington. April 2017. Three Things are Very Clear. (1 ) Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases are Rising Rapidly in the Atmosphere and Mankind is Doing Relatively Little to Stop It.

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The Politicization of Climate Change

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  1. The Politicization of Climate Change Cliff Mass, Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington April 2017

  2. Three Things are Very Clear

  3. (1) Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases are Rising Rapidly in the Atmosphere and Mankind is Doing Relatively Little to Stop It

  4. (2) Increasing greenhouse gases will result in considerable warming of the planet

  5. (3) The global warming debate in the U.S. has degraded into highly politicized, tribal warfare “Alarmist” “Luke Warmer” “Denier”

  6. Politicization of Climate • How did it happen? • Did it have to happen? • Why both left and right have been to blame • What have been my experiences trying to find a middle way. • What can we do about it now?

  7. % Who Agree That Global Warming Caused by Man Has Already Begun to Happen

  8. Global Warming Caused by Humans (%)

  9. Republican (red), Democrat (blue) in 2012

  10. Division in WA State

  11. Republican Have Supported Environmental Programs in the Past • Theodore Roosevelt: National Parks • Richard Nixon: EPA, Clean Air Act, NOAA • In 1992, President George H. W. Bush (R) signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change • In 2001, his son President George W. Bush created the Climate Change Research Initiative • 2007, John McCain stated “I believe climate change is real. I think it’s devastating.”

  12. So What Happened? The nation become more politically polarized in the 1990s, but why did climate become an issue of division in the 2000s?

  13. Al Gore and Inconvenient Truth (2006): Did this contribute to politicization?

  14. Did Exaggeration and Hype on the Left Undermine the Credibility of Environmentalists and the Media? • Most of the impacts of human-caused climate change are in the future • Most climate variability of the past decades was natural. • Thus, to motivate “proper” action, hype and exaggeration of current impacts were used.

  15. Global Warming Leads to Cold Waves John Holdren, President Obama’s Science Adviser

  16. 2011 Texas Heat Wave

  17. But The Heat Wave Was Localized

  18. The 2011 Heat Wave Was Associated with a Big Ridge over the U.S.

  19. 2011 Texas Heat Wave • There is no reason to expect that the high-amplitude, persistent ridge over the central U.S. is associated with global warming. • Thus, this event was mainly the result of natural variability, with a very small enhancement perhaps by global warming

  20. Seattle’s mayor and others suggested our snowpack had declined by 50%

  21. Local media have aired stories saying storms are getting more intense

  22. Some suggest that increasing CO2 is acidifying our local waters killed billions of oysters

  23. This Week

  24. But there was no flooding

  25. Poor Information on the “Pro” Side Was Met By Nonsense from the “Anti” Side

  26. Some suggest that the recent “pause” means global warming is not occurring

  27. I tried to Counter Some of the Exaggerated Claims on my Blog and Paid a Price

  28. An Industry of Climate Advocacy Groups Developed

  29. As Did a Collection of Opposing Advocacy Groups and Web Sites

  30. Environmentalists and Democratic Allies Starting Demanding that Climate Change Programs Also Deal With:Climate Justice, Jobs Programs, Social Issues, Income Redistribution A non-starter for most Republicans.

  31. Recently, those on the left worked against a highly progressive, bipartisan approach to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in WA State: revenue neutral carbon tax

  32. Problem:Most People Are Not Willing to Sacrifice Much To Deal With the Problem

  33. Professor Jared Diamond, Author of Collapse, Guns, Germs and Steel.No precedent of advanced action

  34. A Large Majority of Americans Would Not Pay $10. a Month to Deal with Global Warming

  35. So What Do We Do Now?

  36. It Must Be Bipartisan

  37. Encouraging News: Moderate Republicans Called for Carbon Tax

  38. The Solution Will Be Technical

  39. Some Climate Change is Inevitable: Prepare Society to Adapt and Be More Resilient

  40. Oroville Dam, CA

  41. Safer Nuclear Energy Will Be An Important Part of the Mix

  42. More Research Needed • Better climate models • Understand uncertainties in projections • Regional Climate Modeling is needed to understand local impacts

  43. What to Do Now? • Continue active research on global impacts of increasing greenhouse gases. • Support active research to determine local impacts. • Support research on new energy technologies • Revisit nuclear energy • National Carbon Tax • Continue investments in renewable energy

  44. What do We Do? • Encourage mass transportation and energy efficiency • Work on bipartisan solutions and don’t politicize the process.

  45. Remember: Global Warming is Only A Small Part of the Problem • Sustainability and population are the real issues.

  46. The End

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