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The role oF NATURAL GAS IN TURKEY’s energy future

The role oF NATURAL GAS IN TURKEY’s energy future. Dr. Sohbet Karbuz INGAS 2009 Istanbul, 10 June 2009. Outline. Natural gas in Turkey’s Energy Demand Turkey’s future gas supply Turkey: a gas hub, or corridor, or transit ? Is the EU serious about energy security ?

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The role oF NATURAL GAS IN TURKEY’s energy future

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  1. The role oF NATURAL GAS IN TURKEY’s energy future Dr. Sohbet Karbuz INGAS 2009 Istanbul, 10 June 2009

  2. Outline Natural gas in Turkey’s Energy Demand Turkey’s future gas supply Turkey: a gas hub, or corridor, or transit ? Is the EU serious about energy security ? Concluding remarks

  3. Turkey’s Energy demand 10.7 Mtoe in 1960 97Mtoe in 2008 251 Mtoe in 2030 86% fossil fuel 90% fossil fuel business as usual is not sustainable Source: OME

  4. PrimaryEnergyProduction Demandwillgrowmuchfasterthan production Energy import dependencywillworsen, 74% by 2030 Progress in renewableenergydevelopmentshas been very slow.

  5. Gas demand In Euro-Med (Mtoe, 2005 vs 2030) Coal: #4  #2 Oil: #8  #6 Total: #7  #3 Ele: #7  #1,2

  6. Turkey’s Gas Demand Sources: IEA, BOTAȘ, and OME Power generation is and will remain the key sector

  7. Gross Electricity Production by Fuel 22% 41% 29% Gas will remain #1, but its share will decline from ~50% in 2007 to 41% by 2030

  8. Turkey’s Natural Gas Demand

  9. Turkey’s Natural Gas Supply Gas import dependency 97% in 2008 more tomorrow Domestic gas production in the future is not very promising

  10. Natural GasDependency, 2007

  11. Natural Gas Imports and Dependency on Russia, 2007

  12. Chemchemal ?? ?? KhorMor Akkas Tamar, Dalit ??

  13. Is the EU serious about gas supply security? • Supports politically motivated sanctions against …. • Lacks far sighted coherent policies and priorities…. • Diversification of supply, but • EU pledged €1.85 bn for modernization of Ukraine’s pipelines BUT, The European Energy Programme for Recovery allocation for Gas Infrastructure is €1440 M • Of which Nabucco€200 M (€250 M, German opposition/Polish support) • Russia turns the screw on Ukraine • Nord Stream and S. Stream will compete more with the current transport system • Revise Energy Charter Treaty? • Energy should not become the currency of power in EU-Turkey relations

  14. Future of Nabucco • South Stream vsNabucco: escalating “competition” • 8 May 2009 Prague: Nabucco (or Southern Corridor) • 15 May 2009 Sochi: S. Stream (63 bcm/yr) , signatures… • 17 May 2009: OMV-MOL announcement of Iraqi project • 25 June 2009 Nabucco IGA? • 15% off the table ?? • Azeri tango with Russia (not really) • Turkey, if it has a role, should act as a bridge, not a hub…. Develop 4 hubs (in Baku, Romania, Greece, Italy)….explore alternatives (WS) “even if an acceptable Corridor Agreement would (or would not) be found with Turkey”….include LNG development in Romania and perhaps Bulgaria!Jozias Van Aartsen, European Coordinator for Southern Corridor (known as Nabucco co-ordinator), Activity Report: September 2007-February 2009.

  15. Conclusions • Turkey is an emerging regional and global energy player. • A geostrategic energy hub and corridor for producers & consumers; IOCs & NOCs; and investors • But lacks a comprehensive, forward looking energy (security) strategy. The world “strategy” should be used properly • Policy decisions should not be formulated by looking through the pipelines

  16. Thank you for your attention.karbuz@ome.org

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