Korean Politics (POLI 133J) , March 31

1. Korean Politics (POLI 133J), March 31 Q&A with a ROK National Assemblyman The division and the Korean War Transition from a LAO to an OAO

2. Welcome to Korean politics class! Lee, Jong-Kul Democratic Party Member of NA (16th, 17th, 18th) Strategy & Finance Committee Chair, Job Creation Committee “Lawyers for a Democratic Society” B.A. Seoul National University Law School, Dept. of Public Law

3. Chronology (1) • “5000 years of history” • KoJosun/ Three Kingdoms/ Unified Silla • Koryo Dynasty (918-1392) • Chosun (Yi or Lee) Dynasty (1392-1910) • 1910: annexed by Japan • 1945: liberation, temporary division • 1948: establishment of two Koreas • 1950-53: Korean War

4. Chronology (2) 1st Republic: Syngman Rhee (1948-60) • April 1960: student revolution 2nd Republic: Chang Myon, prime minister(1960-1) • May 1961: military coup 3rd Republic: Park Chung-hee (1963-72) • October 1972: Yushin 4th Republic: Park Chung-hee (1972-79) • October 1979: Park’s assassination • 12/12/1979 & 5/17/1980: two-stage coup • May 1980: Kwangju uprising & massacre

5. Chronology (3) 5th Republic: Chun Doo-hwan (1981-87) • June 1987: mass demonstrations • 6/29/1987: democratic declaration • December 1987: presidential election 6th Republic (1988- ) • Roh Tae-woo (1988-93) • Kim Young-sam (1993-98) • Kim Dae-jung (1998-2003) • 1st inter-Korean summit (2000) • Roh Moo-hyun (2003-2008) • Lee Myung-bak (2008-2013)

6. South Korea, 1948-

7. The division and the war • Causes of the division and the war? -temporary division (1945) “the second American betrayal” -permanent division (1948) -war (1950-53) • Effects of the division and the war on the politics in South Korea and North Korea

8. Division • 1943: Cairo Conference: US, Britain, and china declare future Korean independence “in due course”; at the subsequent Tehran Conference, Stalin agrees. • 1945: The USSR declares war on Japan (August 8); The US proposes to the USSR the 38th parallel as the line of demarcation, and the USSR agrees (August 12); Japan surrenders (August 15); At the Moscow Conference, the US, Britain, and the USSR agree to a 5-year trusteeship for Korea • 1946: The First US-USSR Joint Commission to implement the Moscow trusteeship agreement adjourns w/o an agreement (March-May). • 1947: The Second US-USSR Joint Commission fails (May-October); The US takes the Korean question to the United Nations General Assembly, and the USSR protests.

9. Division & War • 1948: A UN delegation to supervise general elections in the Korean peninsula arrives (January); The UN decides to hold elections only in the US-occupied southern half of the peninsula (February); The Republic of Korea (South Korea) established, with Syngman Rhee as President (August 15); The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) established, with Kim Il Sung as Premier. • 1950: The Korean War begins with a large-scale invasion of South Korea by North Korea (June 25). • 1953: The Korean War ends in an armistice w/o a peace treaty (July); the DMZ (demilitarized zone) created.

10. Debate on the origins of the Korean War • The oldest school: The war began with a North Korean invasion of the South at the instigation of and support from Soviet leader Josef Stalin. • The revisionist school: blamed the United States and South Korea for the war; It’s unimportant to debate who started the war and how since the war was ultimately a war for national unification. • The new school: rather than blaming Stalin as the prime mover behind the invasion, it instead regarded North Korean leader Kim Il-sung as the mastermind behind the attack.

11. Causes of the Division and the War • Internal conflicts between the left and the right: Few preferred a division (separate governments) to any form of unified country. • 38th Parallel: Proposed by the US and agreed by USSR as a temporary line of demarcation • Failure to implement the Moscow trusteeship agreement • Development of the Cold War • Division as a fundamental cause of the Korean War: “civil war” • Kim Il-sung’s invasion and the misjudgment of the US (Stalin’s war): “internationalization” of the war.

12. Effects of the division and the war • External threat as a rationale for authoritarian rule in both Koreas -SK: Anticommunist state rather than a democratic state -Elimination of the left and “red complex” in SK -Why does the NK regime not collapse? • Fierce competition between the two Koreas -NK: A model of socialist development until the early 1970s -SK: A model of developmental state • Unusually equal distribution of income and wealth: Land reform • Strategic importance of Korean peninsula • Long-term peace under intense tension (armistice)

13. Research Questions • S. Korea: A rare case of LAO transition to OAO How did it happen? • Sequencing & interaction of economic & political opening What made it possible? • Comparison with TWN & PHL Has the transition completed?

14. Previous explanations of Korean development • Few attempts to explain both economic and political development • Dominant explanation for economic growth: “Developmental state” established by Park • But, where does it come from? • Favorable conditions for Park: 1) Equality of income and wealth, Absence of landed elite 2) Education (literacy and numeracy)

15. Trends of land gini Sources: Ban, Moon, and Perkins (1980), Taylor and Jodice (1983), and Frankema (2006) Note: When there are multiple estimates, both the lower and the higher estimates are included.

16. Trends of income gini Source: World Income Inequality Database

17. Land reform in S. Korea • August 1945: Liberation; Separation of North and South • October 1945: American Military Government, rent reduction (1/3) • 1946: Radical land reform in the North • 1948: AMG redistributed 240,000 hectares of former Japanese land. • August 1948: Establishment of ROK, followed by DPRK in September • March 1950: Land Reform Act, signed into law. • 1950-52: Government purchased and redistributed 330,000 hectares of farmland, before and during the war. • Retention limit: 3 hectares • Buying and selling prices: 1.5 times the annual yield • Voluntary sales of over 500,000 hectares, between 1948 and 1950. • 52 percent of total cultivated land transferred ownership.

18. Changes after the reform • Before the reform: The richest 2.7 percent of rural households owned two thirds of all the cultivated lands, while 58 percent owned no land at all. • By 1956, however, the top 6 percent owned only 18 percent of the cultivated lands. • Tenancy dropped from 49 percent to 7 percent of all farming households, and the area of cultivated land under tenancy fell from 65 percent to 18 percent.

19. Sequence and interaction of economic and political openings • Land reform (1948-50) → Expansion of education (upward equalization) → Human capital-based growth w/ equity; Autonomous bureaucracy; Democratization movements → Democratic transition (1987) • Democratic transition (1987) → Popular demand for economic reforms; Financial crisis & change of government (1997) → Economic reforms & democratic consolidation (1998- )

20. Consolidation of OAO: Challenges for South Korea • Mutually reinforcing relationships between open access in various systems: Citizens’ belief system, vibrant civil society, transfer of power, economic reforms • Limited access still remaining: National Security Law, chaebol’s market power & weak consumer protection, setbacks in rule of law

21. Role of external threat and competition • Land reform: North Korean threat • Security threat from NK • Economic performance competition with NK • From import substitution to export promotion: Competition in global markets

22. Reversal of fortunes?Irony of history? • South America vs. North America • USSR-model socialism vs. welfare capitalism & social democracy • South Korea vs. North Korea • South Korea & Taiwan vs. the Philippines