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Korean Politics (POLI 133J) , April 07 Democratization

Korean Politics (POLI 133J) , April 07 Democratization. What factors account for the democratic transition in 1987, while other earlier efforts had failed? 2. Why did it result in the election of Roh Tae-woo rather than an opposition candidate?

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Korean Politics (POLI 133J) , April 07 Democratization

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  1. Korean Politics (POLI 133J), April 07Democratization What factors account for the democratic transition in 1987, while other earlier efforts had failed? 2. Why did it result in the election of Roh Tae-woo rather than an opposition candidate? What role did the US play in the democratization of S. Korea?

  2. Korea’s Polity Score, 1948-2007(-10 Authoritarian, +10 Democratic)

  3. Political events, 1979-80 • October 26, 1979: Park assassinated by KCIA chief, Kim Jae-kyu • December 12, 1979 & May 17, 1980: General Chun Doo-hwan’s two-stage coup • May 18-May 27, 1980: Kwangju Uprising & Massacre • February 1981: 5th Republic launches w/ Chun Doo-hwan as President (7-year signgle term)

  4. Political events before 1987 • Noncrisis case • 1985 general election - ruling Democratic Justice Party (DJP) got only 35% of vote • Opposition got support from workers, farmers, and students • Opposition organized around constitutional reform, especially direct presidential elections. • But little progress on negotiations…

  5. Political events in 1987 • April 13, 1987: President Chun Doo-hwan suspended debate on constitutional amendment, sparking a wave of nationwide antigovernment protests. • June 1987: Chairman Roh Tae-woo picked as DJP’s presidential candidate. • Mass demonstrations with urban middle class participation. • June 29, 1987: Roh’s Declaration of Political Reform • Constitutional amendment: Direct presidential election • Roh wins December 1987 presidential election with 38.6% of the vote.

  6. What factors account for the democratic transition in 1987? Why did the government not use the military force to suppress demonstrations? • Mass movement, led by students • Middle class support • The memory of Kwangju incident (You) • Negotiations within the elites: Strength of reformers over hardliners (Fowler) What evidence? • The US role (Fowler) • Economic development(?)

  7. Prezeworski et al.(2000): The Impact of development on democracy Two possible explanations: Modernization theory (Lipset): Endogenous explanation A progressive accumulation of social changes from industrialization, urbanization, education, communication, mobilization, political incorporation leads to democratization. Exogenous explanation: Democracies emerge randomly w.r.t. economic development, but are more likely to survive at higher levels of development. Findings: Strong evidence for the exogenous explanation, but little evidence for the modernization theory

  8. US role in democratization of SK • April Revolution, 1960: positive role • Military coup, May 1961: tacit support • Yushin, 1972: tacit support -behind Kim Jae-kyu? • 12/12 and 5/18: tacit support (Carter administration) -issue of operational control -role of Ambassador Gleysteen and General Wickham • June 1987: positive role (Reagan administration) -strong warning against the use of military force -why change?

  9. US role in 1979-80 and in 1987 Fowler: • Importance of public statements • Insignificance of approval for the use of CFC forces? • Carter administration: constrained by Iran • Reagan administration: public pressure to repeat the success in the Philippines • Concern on rising anti-Americanism: “secondary”? You: • Lessons from Kwangju

  10. Why Roh and notan oppositioncandidate? • Split of democratic candidates (DJ & YS) • No run-off for presidential election: Constitution written prior to military’s exit. • Media: In non-crisis transitions, reform process dominated by incumbents. • Image-making of Roh as a democratic hero: On June 29, Roh threatens to resign as Chairman of DJP if Chun refuses to accept his declaration. On July 1, Chun agrees. • Vote rigging • Safe choice for vested interests, including the military. • Cold War mentality: bombing of KAL 858 (November 29) • Regionalism

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