1 / 7

MRC Post- Midterm Election Panel

MRC Post- Midterm Election Panel. November 16, 2018. Main Issue: 2014 vs. 2018. In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the US today?. Reuters/Ipsos Core Political, October 29, 2014 and October 31, 2018. Ideologically Polarized & Distrustful America.

eugenio
Download Presentation

MRC Post- Midterm Election Panel

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. MRC Post- Midterm Election Panel November 16, 2018

  2. Main Issue: 2014 vs. 2018 In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the US today? Reuters/Ipsos Core Political, October 29, 2014 and October 31, 2018

  3. Ideologically Polarized & Distrustful America Do you agree or disagree… Traditional parties and politicians don’t care about me Do you support or oppose… increasing the deportation of illegal immigrants 3 Reuters/Ipsos Day of Election Poll, November 6, 2018

  4. Lessons of 2016 • Use multiple independent indicators when forecasting elections (beyond just polling). • Triangulate forecasts using multiple sources of information and types of analysis. • Focus on ensuring coverage and representation in survey sample.

  5. Triangulation Approach Success 8 surprises out of 506 races 5 UVA CfP/Ipsos Political Atlas

  6. Public Polling Challenges – Select States -- Midwest/Appalachia State Polls -- • Ipsos 6 Source: FiveThirtyEight / Real Clear Politics

  7. Thanks

More Related