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2010 Midterm Election

2010 Midterm Election. What happened?. 2010 Midterm. 60+ GOP seat gain in US House 6 Seat GOP Gain in US Senate 11 state leg. Changed GOP; 7 Governors to GOP. RESULTS. 2010 Midterm. How interpret? Mandate for GOP programs? Referendum on Obama? Voters looking back in anger at economy?.

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2010 Midterm Election

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  1. 2010 Midterm Election What happened?

  2. 2010 Midterm • 60+ GOP seat gain in US House • 6 Seat GOP Gain in US Senate • 11 state leg. Changed GOP; 7 Governors to GOP RESULTS

  3. 2010 Midterm • How interpret? • Mandate for GOP programs? • Referendum on Obama? • Voters looking back in anger at economy? What trends? Does the Tea Party really exist?

  4. Obama net negative nationally Obama net positive in WA, CA, OR Electoral context different in Washington

  5. Republican Favorability near par w/ Dems nationally Republicans viewed far less favorably than Dems on West Coast Electoral context different in Washington

  6. Your vote express support for Obama, opposition to Obama, or Obama not a factor Graph shows “support Obama” + “not a factor” as No Electoral context different in Washington

  7. Economy dominant everywhere Huge increase over 2006 Any year, voters punish incumbents The economy, stupid. And health care. Outside of the west.

  8. 2010 • 15% family situation “better” (60% Dem) • 9% natl economy “excellent” or “good” (77% Dem) • 37% economy “poor” (68% GOP) • 2006 • 30% family situation “better” (71% GOP) • 49% natl economy “excellent” or “good” (70% GOP) • 13% economy “poor” (85% Dem) Voter evaluations of the economy

  9. Tea Party

  10. Republicans • 92% strong disapprove Congress • 94% vote GOP in House races • 13% blame Bush for economy • Older, male, educated, affluent, registered GOP • “Tea Party” • 90% strong disapprove Congress • 92% • 5% blame Bush for economy • Older, male, affluent, registered GOP • Hands of social programs No such thing as a Tea Party

  11. Tea Party (?) 2010 • Older, affluent(-ish) voters angry at Obama about economy • 12% under 30; 14% 30-39 (majority D) • Only 3% first time voters • 45% D, 43% R • 2006, 2008 • Younger, less affluent voters angry at Bush about economy • 18% under 30; 18% 30-39 (majority D) • 11% first time voters in 2008 • 69% D, 30% R No such thing as a Tea Party

  12. Most important issue facing the country today? Afghanistan, immigration in single digits Mandate?

  13. What is the highest priority for the new Congress? 40% “reduce deficit” (65% R) 37% “spend to create jobs” (68% D) Mandate?

  14. Surge and Decline: President’s party gain ‘on year,’ Lose in midterm. Avg= 24 seat loss in midterm

  15. It Takes Seats to Lose Seats: 2010 looks like 1994, 1974, 1946, 1938…. (but worse)

  16. Public opinion after elections 2010 weakest of weak mandates

  17. Public opinion after elections 2010 less about Obama than 1994 about Clinton, 2006 about Bush

  18. 2010 Midterm • Why surge and decline? • Presidential elections higher turnout • Many voters mobilized by presidential elections stay home 2 years later 2010 ->40% 88 million 2008 ->62% 133 million 2006 ->40% 86 million 2004 ->60% 124 million 2002 ->40% 80 million 2000 ->54% 107 million 1998 ->38% 75 million Not many voters changing their votes…it’s who shows up

  19. Marginal Dems Lost Marginal seats = moderates Dem more ‘cohesive’ GOP caucus also? Greater polarization

  20. No change of party control state leg: NV, UT, AZ, TX, FL, GA, SC GOP win control of state leg: OH, PA, MI, WI, NC, MN, IN, AL, MT (1) Reapportionment: Dividing the losses

  21. Forecasting models Under-predicted 2010 GOP gains • Why? • Economy, presidential approval, ‘generic ballot’ not enough • Turnout? • fundraising? GOP Gains larger than ‘expected’

  22. A curious bit about polling Republican vote over-estimated in close Senate races

  23. 2010 Midterm in US 2010 Midterm in WA • The Economy • East of Rockies, huge GOP gains • +6 GOP US Senate • +55 GOP US House • Limited referendum on Obama • Ltd. angst about health care • The Economy • West of the Rockies, different story • No Senate change • +6 GOP US House • Referendum on economy • Not much care about health care How did 2010 play out West?

  24. Trends in Washington Evidence of slight GOP gain in Party Identification

  25. GOP Gains in WA State Leg. Not on par with 1994

  26. Steady decline in voter approval Washington Poll data

  27. Decline of economy, rise of issue Washington Poll data…several D seats 2006 due to Iraq

  28. Least popular, most popular Washington Poll, 2010….few have heard of McKenna

  29. Economic Recovery No Recovery • Presidents clobbered in midterm who won • FDR 1940, ‘44 • Truman 1948 • Reagan 1984 • Clinton 1996 • Presidents (party) who lost • IKE/GOP 1960 • LBJ/Dems 1968 • Carter/Dems 1980 • Bush I 1992 What about 2012?

  30. Conclusions • Predictable, but bigger shift than ‘expected?’ • Why so big? • No recovery • Deep recession • Dems went for HC, not stimulus • Obama factor (?) • Not mentioned • Spending • Citizen’s United • WA ballot measures • Whatcom County, 42nd LD. 2010 Midterm: An Outlier?

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